THE GRADING PROCESS

Grading Players

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I use the traditional 20-80 scouting scale when grading players by future value (FV). You can read more about the 20-80 scale and future value here. The following is a quick guide to how I evaluate and grade prospects. 

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80 FV: yearly MVP and Cy Young contenders. The best of the best. I have never given out an 80 FV to a draft prospect.

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70 FV: Yearly all-star and occasional MVP/Cy Young contenders. Very rare and almost never last beyond the 1st or 2nd pick. Bryce Harper is a good example of a draft prospect that would have received a 70 FV during their draft year.

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60 FV: Yearly all-star contenders, top of the rotation starters, and elite closers. There will only be a few of these types in a typical draft year. There were none in 2020 and three (Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr, and CJ Abrams) in 2019.

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55 FV: Occasional all-stars, mid-rotation starters, all-star relievers. 55 grade prospects are usually gone before the middle of the 1st round. There were three in 2020 (Austin Martin, Spencer Torkelson, and Emerson Hancock)

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50 FV: Every day players (2-3 WAR), back end starters, and closers. 50 grade draft prospects will usually only be available in the top half of the first round. They will sometimes last longer for reasons that go beyond talent (injuries, signing bonuses, etc.)

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45 FV: Second division regulars, quality role players, platoon bats, 5th starters, and late-inning relievers. 45 Grade prospects are first-rounders and will sometimes be available in the comp/2nd round. The 45 FV tier lasted until #34 overall (Austin Wells) in my overall rankings for 2020.

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40 FV: Bench depth/utility players, AAAA types, middle relievers, fringe 40 man roster players. 40 FV players make up the first several rounds and are late day 1 or early day 2 selections.

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35 FV: Players with major league tools/talent but with clear flaws. Will include unproven and/or lightly scouted statistical performers, and oddball profiles. These prospects are the most common players and are day 2 and day 3 picks. 35 FV is the lowest grade I give out to prospects and indicates they do some things that pique my interest.

An example could be a reliever with a 70 grade fastball but 20 command and a well below average secondary pitch.  

I consider any prospect below a 35 FV as organizational depth and I view them as"non-prospects". This doesn't mean they can NEVER become a 35 grade prospect or higher, but the present info doesn't suggest that player is one. 

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What's with the '+'?

Not everyone uses the '+' designation but I find it useful. It helps me order and rank prospects by putting them in a separate tier. A 45+ prospect is distinctly different from a  50, but he's a tick better than the rest of the 45's and sits atop the 45 tier. This is true for 40+ and 35+ prospects as well.

Another way to look at players with a '+' is that they are on the cusp of moving into another tier. Someone with a + can sometimes have in-game performance issues, injury concerns, or need to prove they can maintain or show a specific tool or skill. JT Ginn is someone that was a 45 FV but moved to the 40+ FV tier because of injury. Ginn was a tick above the other 40's but the injury prevented me from keeping him at a 45.

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Grading Tools

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I use the same 20-80 scale for grading player tools (Hit/Game Power/Raw Power/Speed/Defense/Arm for hitters and Fastball/Breaking Ball(s)/Changeup/Command for pitchers). I will also sometimes use the 20-80 scale to describe physical traits (strength, projectability, athleticism, instincts) and some non-traditional tools (bat control, plate discipline, pitchability). I will also use some terminology that is interchangeable with the 20-80 scale. 

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20: Poor

30: Well Below Average

40: Below Average

45; Fringy or Fringe Average

50: Average

55: Above Average

60: Plus

70: Plus-Plus or Double Plus

80: Elite

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How I Define Tools

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Hit: Hit tool is a player's ability to make contact and hit for average. There are other tools that can affect hit tool such as bat control, barrel feel, quality of contact, plate discipline/approach, and more.

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Game Power: How a hitter's power plays in a game setting. I like to correlate game power to a player's HR production or isolated power (ISO). Game power can be positively or negatively affected by things like the ability to make contact, quality of contact, barrel/swing path, plate discipline/approach. Usually, game power will play a tick or two below a player's raw power but this is not always the case. 

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Raw Power: How far and/or how hard a player can hit a baseball. Most of the time this is measured in batting practice or by tracking a player's max HR distance/exit velocity. A player's raw power will usually be higher than their game power although there are plenty of examples of players who have game power grades that are higher than their raw power. Think of hitters like Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez.

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Speed: How a player's speed plays in games. This isn't a measure of raw speed like 60 yard dash times. Some players have speed grades that play higher or lower than their raw speed. Instincts, athleticism, reactions, and how a hitter moves out of the batter's box can influence the speed tool. 

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Defense: This grade measures a player's defense relative to others at their position. For example, a 50 grade first base prospect almost certainly won't be a 50 grade shortstop. Typically, defensive ability/grades will go down as you move up the defensive spectrum. Shortstops are at the top of the spectrum while first baseman are at the bottom. Catcher defense is a different animal and remains separated from the other positions. Defensive tools are influenced by factors such as reaction time, hands, instincts, athleticism, range, and speed. Defense grades are somewhat in a state of flux as things like positioning and shifting have altered the way we think about defensive profiles. 

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Arm: I sometimes refer to the arm tool as arm utility. Arm/Arm utility is how a player's arm plays in a game. It is not position-specific so a 50 grade arm for a player listed as a shortstop is the same as a 50 grade arm for a player listed as a second baseman. This is not just a measure of a player's raw arm strength. Factors that can affect the arm grade include release quickness, accuracy, carry, and the ability to make throws from different arm slots/angles and while on the run. Usually, an outfielders' arm tool relies heavily on their raw arm strength and accuracy while an infielder's arm tool encompasses more factors.

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What's with the '/'? 

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I will display a player's tool grade using two numbers with a '/' in the middle. Tool grades are presented this way in my draft databases. The number in front of the slash is the present grade and the number after the slash is the future grade. These grades are relative to the major leagues. For example, a hitter with a hit tool grade of 25/50 means their present hit tool is a 25 (poor) in the majors right now and their future hit tool grade is projected to be a 50 (average) in the majors. This can help show how much and what kind of development a player needs to reach their future value. Example:

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Player A has a hit tool grade of 20/50. 

Player B has a hit tool grade of 40/50.

Player B's hit tool is more of a finished product because he needs less development to reach that 50 hit tool grade. This makes Player B's hit tool 'safer' because there is less uncertainty

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For the most part, high school prospects will have lower present value grades compared to college prospects because they are younger, less physically mature, and have less experience. There is more development needed for a high schooler compared to a college prospect, but they also have a larger window of time for that development to occur. This is especially true for the hit tool grade as it is pretty rare for a high school prospect to have a present value grade higher than a 25.

PITCHERS

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 As mentioned earlier, grades for a pitcher include each pitch (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, etc.) and command. Like with hitters, there are other skills that affect each of those grades including athleticism, delivery, arm speed, arm slot, feel for spin, pitchability, and more. 

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Pitch Grades- In recent years there has been a renaissance of sorts when it comes to pitch evaluation. We are beginning to understand what makes a good pitch good and what makes a bad pitch bad. I am not an expert on this by any means, but I definitely keep the factors that contribute to the quality of a pitch in mind. Positive or negative pitch data is absolutely a factor when I develop pitch grades.

Command vs. Control- I'd like to clarify the difference between command and control. For me, command is a pitcher's ability to throw a pitch in a specific location. Control refers to a pitcher's ability to throw pitches in the strike zone and avoid walks. While control is certainly important, a pitcher's command is a much more important factor in determining success. Simply looking at a pitcher's walk rate can tell you their control, but it doesn't really tell you how good their command is. A pitcher with good control but poor command avoids issuing walks but will also throw too many hittable pitches. A common phrase I use to express this is "control over command" or control>command. I very rarely grade a pitcher's command above 55. Even good major league pitchers have command grades right around 50. An example of a draft prospect that had a 60 command grade would be Thomas Eshelman, a 2nd round pick by the Astros in 2015.

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A pitcher's command can affect their individual pitch grades. A pitcher with great command of a certain pitch can allow the pitch to "play up" or above what the pitches' velocity/movement would indicate. A pitcher with 45 grade velocity on their fastball could still throw a 55 grade fastball if they command the pitch very well.

Most of the time, pitchers will command certain pitches more effectively than others. I consider a pitcher's command of their entire arsenal when determining their overall command grade. Fastball command is usually the most important so I weigh the command of that pitch more heavily.

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FINAL NOTES

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It is important to note that grades can and will change over time as hitters and pitchers adapt, develop, and perform. As the spring high school and college seasons progress you will see player grades fluctuate. I tend to keep grades lower at the start of the season and move players up (and sometimes down) as I see them and more data becomes available. 

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I've included a grading chart in my draft database. This can be a quick, helpful resource that provides some context and explains my grading. 

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If you have any questions about grading or my grading process feel free to send me an email or DM on Twitter.

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