I decided to split up my first draft board into two parts. In this portion I'll go over the players ranked 50-26 followed by 25-1. After I get through this first edition of my draft board I'll probably pause until January or February for a preseason draft board that will expand to 100 players. This is a deep draft and there were a lot of difficult cuts to be made. There were about a dozen players that I thought were absolutely going to make it into the top 50 only for them to fall well short of that mark. A lot will change over the next 8 months or so but we have to start somewhere. Here’s where I am at this early stage, in the month of November:
50. Sal Stewart
Position: Third Base
School: Westminster Christan (FL)
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Stewart stood out for me at the Perfect Game All American Classic where he showed a strong and projectable body, future power potential, and an advanced, mature approach. He went 0-2 but had some of the more competitive at bats of the game.
The physical projection remaining is significant. Stewart is showing in game power and he’s recorded 104+ exit velos, so there is a whole lot of power already present. It’s not just brute force kind of pop, Stewart has a plan at the plate. He’s also totally fine with taking what pitchers give him and spraying hard hit balls to any field. The bat speed is easily plus and Stewart has shown off the ability to get extended for pull side pop.
Stewart isn’t quite a bat first only prospect but he’s likely to trend that way over the long term. He’s about a 40 grade runner now and will be closer to a 30 at maturity. He’s a perfectly fine defender at third now (he actually plays a lot of shortstop for his high school team) with the arm strength for the left side of the infield. The defensive profile is comparable to Michael Chavis when both players were at the same stage, though Chavis had more speed. Stewart is probably a first baseman sooner rather than later. The Vanderbilt commit has the chance for an average or better hit tool with plus game power for the future.
49. Jurrangelo Cijntje
Position: Both Handed Pitcher
School: Champagnat Catholic (FL)
Commitment: Mississippi State
Usually, when you hear about players that are ambidextrous it ends up being a novelty rather than a valuable major league skill. Jurrangelo Cijntje may be the exception. He’s certainly a more explosive pitcher from the right side, but he’s fully capable of competing as a lefty, too. Cijntje has no problem transitioning from righty to lefty thrower from batter to batter during outings. As a righty, he sits in the low 90s and was up to 96 in Jupiter earlier this month. His most used secondary pitch is a high spin, sweeping breaking ball that flashes average and has above average potential. Has shown some feel for a changeup as a righty. From the left side, he sits in the mid-to-high 80s with a breaking ball that shows curveball shape. His size (5’11/170) and command as a righty point towards a bullpen future but he could provide a lot of value in that role with his switch pitching ability. I think his ability to record outs with both arms is being undervalued a bit which is why I have him ranked higher than most. Cijintje is one of the most unique prospects in the 2022 class. He recently committed to Mississippi State.
48. Levi Huesman
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: Hanover (VA)
Commitment: Coastal Carolina
Huesman isn’t quite inside that top tier of prep lefties just yet but his performance at WWBA in October (considered one of the best in event history) moved him much closer towards that territory. The 5’11, 185 lefty struck out 17 batters in a 7 inning shutout with just 2 hits allowed. Huesman showed a devastating fastball/slider combination and a bulldog mentality on the mound, attacking hitters ruthlessly. Here's a stat table I made using the play-by-play data provided by Perfect Game:
What Huesman lacks in size he makes up for in athleticism and moxie. He has a lanky and projectable frame that has the potential to fill out enough to profile in a pro rotation. Huesman’s delivery is up-tempo and explosive and he does a good job keeping his body in control. He utilizes a low ¾ arm slot with at least plus arm speed. The movement down the mound and the arm speed allows him to get good extension and work downhill. Huesman was typically a low 90s arm until October. He’s seen steady growth in the velocity department and topped out at 95 MPH at WWBA, averaging 92, and maintaining 90-93 for all 7 innings. The fastball features a ton of arm side movement and he’s able to command the pitch all around the strike zone.
The slider is Huesman’s best secondary pitch and it pairs well with his fastball. It’s a wipeout pitch that has above average spin rates and excellent tunneling effect. The curve also has a lot of spin and features sharp, downward action. The slider flashes plus and the curve has above average potential at least. He’s been able to throw a competitive changeup as well with good fade. It’s a deceptive pitch when he’s able to maintain a similar arm speed to his fastball. Huesman showed very good command and strike throwing ability at WWBA as 71% of his pitches were strikes during that outing. The boost in stuff is still fairly fresh so it remains to be seen if his WWBA performance was the beginning of something new or a flash in the pan. Huesman has top 2 round potential if he comes out firing this spring.
47. Tyler Locklear
Position: Third Base
School: VCU
Locklear will do very well on draft day if he can replicate what he did during the spring at VCU and over the summer on the Cape. In a combined 403 plate appearances, Locklear homered 25 times, and his ISO (isolated power) during the spring (.341) and summer (.248) were both excellent. Locklear isn’t the most fluid athlete and you can see that with the way his swing works. He clearly has limited twitch and looseness at the plate when compared to many of the top college bats in this class. But the swing works for him as he’s able to consistently impact the ball out in front for hard, fly ball contact. The offensive package works due to his immense physical strength and at least plus level bat speed. Locklear has fringy plate discipline but it isn’t a huge detriment because of his ability to do damage against pitches in locations that other hitters struggle to do much with.
This is a college draft class that is still feeling the effects of the 2020 shutdown. There are a limited number of “complete” college bats coming into the 2022 spring season with a track record of hitting in games. Locklear is one of the few hitters at this early stage that you can point to as a relatively good bet to provide offensive value at the next level. He will need to hit as the reports on his defense at third are less than stellar. Locklear is unlikely to play third base (if at all) at the next level and his limited foot speed likely means his ultimate defensive home is across the diamond at first. He’s a good bet to go somewhere in the top couple of rounds.
46. Andrew Dutkanych
Position: Right Handed Pitcher
School: Brebuf Jesuit Prep (IN)
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Dutkanych is a Midwest righty that doesn’t require much imagination to see the ultimate ceiling. It’s an intriguing blend of physical gifts and “now” stuff but without the polish to complete the whole package. Dutkanych has an ideal pitcher’s build at 6’3/200 with compact strength and durability. Dutkanych is blessed with superb arm speed that allows him to do things on the mound other pitchers aren’t capable of. He’s a solid athlete but his actions on the mound aren’t the most fluid and the mechanics do need some refinement. Dutkanych has a compact arm action and releases from a fairly standard ¾ slot. He struggles to repeat his mechanics but the simplicity of the delivery and the overall athleticism suggest that it will come in time. However, he’ll need to maintain that athleticism and flexibility as he bulks up.
The overall collection of pitches is drool-worthy. His fastball will sit in the 93-96 range during shorter outings and as far as I can tell it rarely ever drops below 91. The pitch features excellent backspin and life up in the strike zone. It’s an easy plus grade pitch with further improvement to his command. As it stands, it’s a bit more hittable than you’d expect given the velocity and shape. Dutkanych compliments his fastball with three secondary pitches, the best of which is a hard slider. It’s a power pitch with late tilt and mid-to-upper 80s velocity. His curveball is right around average in the upper 70s and will show big depth through the strike zone. His changeup is a low 80s pitch that has occasional late fading action and he can sell it well with the way he maintains fastball arm speed. It’s a solid mix overall, and all four of his offerings sit in distinct velocity bands. There’s a lot to dream on here and a lot of variance in terms of final outcomes. Dutkanych has 1st round potential and will need to be selected early enough for him to pass up on a Vanderbilt commitment.
45. Owen Murphy
Position: Right Handed Pitcher
School: Riverside Brookdale (IL)
Commitment: Notre Dame
I caught Murphy's appearance on PerfectGame.tv during the PG National Showcase. He looked solid but somewhat ordinary and with his Notre Dame commitment I kind of just assumed he wouldn't truly be draftable until college. Later on, I sent a DM to prospect and data guru Mason McRae about some “data guys” that stood out to him. The first name he offered up? Owen Murphy. A couple of months later, McRae tweeted an Owen Murphy-themed thread with further details on the young righty. A couple of weeks later, D1Baseball’s Patrick Ebert posted a great video of Murphy from the Baseball Factory All-American Game. Ebert films from a great angle behind home plate which allowed me to get a better look at his operation and pitch movement. I made a GIF that includes a fastball and breaking ball followed by slomo versions of both pitches.
I think this was a really awesome example of how you can effectively combine pitching data and video/scouting when evaluating prospects. The data provided direction and the video provided me the opportunity to focus on elements that I missed when I saw Murphy pitch the first time. Hat tip to both Mason and Patrick who do great work.
Owen Murphy may not look like a fierce, powerful arm but don’t let that fool you . . . he is. Murphy is solidly built and has well-proportioned strength in his 6’1/190 body. He’s a quality athlete that checks a lot of boxes and he has some room to grow physically. Murphy has a loose and longer arm action with a high ¾ release. It’s an average effort delivery with very efficient movements. Murphy works straight towards home plate and does a great extending and finishing square.
The fastball isn’t going to ‘wow’ with velocity (90-94) alone. But the spin and shape of the pitch makes it one of the better fastballs in the prep class. Murphy is able to get over 20 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) while minimizing horizontal movement, giving it a heavy rising effect through the strike zone. Murphy isn’t a fastball-only pitcher, he has a full bag of tricks to fool hitters with. His slider is his best secondary pitch and it’s easily plus. It’s a high spinner with tight rotation and late break thrown in the 84-88 range. He also has an 11-5 shaped curveball that features spin rates around 2,500 RPMs. He can land both breaking balls for strikes. His changeup has some fading life and there's a feel for it. Overall, Murphy has excellent polish and has enough stuff to compete as it is. Any future gains could put him in mid-first round territory.
44. Cooper Hjerpe
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: Oregon State
I realize that I’m going out on a bit of a limb here by ranking Hjerpe in the top 50. You look at the ERA (4.21 in ‘21/4.35 career), the fastball velocity (mostly 91-93), the individual pitches and nothing truly jumps off the page. But there are a lot of attractive elements under the surface that have me excited for his 2022 season. Hjerpe’s fastball has steadily climbed from the upper 80s/low 90s level to sitting in the low 90s and flirting with mid 90s velocity. But it’s the way his fastball plays that makes it a potential plus pitch. Hjerpe is fun to watch with a funky delivery that features significant crossfire and an arm slot that might as well be sidearm. The angle that he throws from is unique and tough for hitters, especially lefties, to pick up and track. Hitters and coaches have referred to Hjerpe’s fastball as an “invisiball” because of its tendency to get by hitters in an unexpected fashion. Hjerpe is able to get whiffs on his fastball at multiple levels of the strike zone and he shows feel for locating the pitch low and to his glove side. I’m putting a plus future grade on it despite average velocity and fringy present command. Hjerpe is capable of surviving off the strength of his fastball which puts less pressure on his secondary offerings during outings. His breaking ball and changeup will impress at times but are inconsistent from start to start. When Hjerpe has his sweeping curveball working he’s almost impossible for college bats to touch. It’s a good weapon against lefties already but if he can start back footing it to righties it could be a solidly above average pitch. Hjerpe’s changeup already shows bat missing ability. Prospect Live’s Joe Doyle tweeted out that Hjerpe’s changeup recorded a 46% whiff rate last spring. As with the breaker, Hjerpe's changeup quality will vary from start to start but he seems to have a better feel for the changeup overall and it can be a near plus pitch against righties.
There are starter elements with the build (6’2/190), three pitch mix, and the ability to throw strikes. Hjerpe’s delivery isn’t typical for a major league starter and he’s currently more control > command. He’s had some trouble remaining consistent with the quality of his secondaries (especially with the breaking ball). It’s also kind of odd how he wasn’t able to string multiple high-quality starts in a row in 2022. That may point to a future in the bullpen (arm barn?) but luckily, we have a full college season ahead of us to make that determination. Two of my favorite pitcher evaluation tools are FaBIO and DIGS which incorporate elements like command, batted ball events, and strikeouts to paint a more comprehensive picture of a pitcher’s abilities. Hjerpe was terrific under both grading systems with a FaBIO score of 99 (100 is the max) and a DIGS grade of 89 (again, 100 being the max). I would love to find out what his pitch data looks like, especially on that fastball, because to the naked eye the whole operation looks extremely unique. Hjerpe will most likely end up in a tier below the top draft-eligible college lefties (Hubbart, Barco, Whisenhunt, etc.) but should do well on draft day as college lefties typically do. Hjerpe fits the mold of a 2-3 round type arm.
43. Chris Newell
Position: Outfield
School: Virginia
Chris Newell was tracking like an early 1st rounder after he burst onto the scene as a freshman during the shortened 2020 season. Newell had a surprisingly lackluster 2021 season (.733 OPS) that saw him drop to the 9th spot in the Cavaliers lineup. He started showing signs of life about halfway through May and ended up being one of UVA’s most dangerous hitters through regionals/Omaha. Newell continued to hit well during the summer on the Cape but his 3/23 BB:K ratio was a bit of an eyesore. It’s the approach and plate discipline that is going to make or break Newell’s draft stock. The rest of the tools are 55/60 grades and he looks the part physically and athletically. Newell’s timing and ability to barrel balls improved as the 2021 season went on but his overly aggressive approach needs major refinement. He’s a high variance college bat that has late 1st round potential if everything clicks.
42. Malcolm Moore
Position: Catcher
School: CK McClatchy (CA)
Commitment: Stanford
Malcolm Moore is a personal favorite of mine. He was named 'Most Outstanding Player' at Area Codes this August and will likely be in the conversation for top prep catcher throughout the spring. The lefty hitter has a well-balanced skill set that combines athleticism and physicality. He has shown average run times in the past and there is smoothness and looseness to his game on both sides of the ball. Moore has a mature approach with well above average bat speed which results in lots of hard line drive contact to all fields. There is some untapped power to be had as he begins to grow physically and works his loose and athletic lower half more into his swing. He's a good bet to stick behind the plate with no glaring weaknesses down in the squat. He's committed to Stanford which will almost certainly make him a tough signability guy for the 2022 draft.
41 . Eric Brown
Position: Shortstop
School: Coastal Carolina
Eric Brown was an intriguing underclass talent during my Parker Chavers viewings last year. His weird/unorthodox swing mechanics made me skeptical but he played a solid SS, made hard contact, and performed at a high level. He answered a lot of questions over the summer by proving he could hit quality pitching in the Cape Cod League. Brown finished w/an .811 OPS and received positive reports for his defense up the middle. He doesn’t have a true plus tool but he’s well-rounded and will stick on the dirt. Those types of guys don’t usually last long on draft day. 2-3 round potential.
40. Ian Ritchie Jr.
Position: Right Handed Pitcher
School: Bainbridge (WA)
Commitment: UCLA
Ritchie is sort of like the “lite” version of Georgia prep Dylan Lesko (Lesko will be in the 25-1 writeup). He’s been on the radar as a high level pitching prospect for a very long time. Ritchie doesn’t match Lesko’s pure stuff, but he’s an extremely polished arm who continues to show gradual improvements. Ritchie has well-proportioned strength in his lean build and plenty of athleticism on the mound. He has a simple and efficient delivery that he seems to have mastered as he repeats his clean operation well. It’s a shorter arm action with a ¾ slot and plus arm speed. He’s very good at incorporating his significant lower half strength in his delivery to drive down the mound.
His top fastball velocity is right around 96 MPH and he’ll range anywhere from the 90-95 range, sitting 91-94 over long stretches. He has the ability to command the fastball to all areas of the strike zone and he uses it with intent. There’s late life on the pitch and it plays heavy when thrown lower in the zone. He’s shown the ability to alter the look/shape of his fastball to suit his needs. The pitch plays up with advanced feel. His slider and changeup are two quality secondary pitches and both could be plus pitches down the road. The slider has two-plane break and is thrown in the low 80s. He tunnels it well with his fastball. Ritchie also has confidence in a fading changeup that he can use effectively against both righty and lefty bats. There’s also a 4th pitch for Ritchie with his curveball that shows quality north-south movement, above average spin rates, and high 70s velocity. Ritchie has a very impressive starting pitcher toolkit with the way he fuses pure stuff, pitchability, and command. It’s hard to see him lasting past the second round this coming summer.
39. Gavin Turley
Position: Outfield
School: Hamilton (AZ)
Commitment: Oregon State
Turley is a physical and athletic beast with some of the best measurables in the high school class. He has a physical 6’2/190 frame with an unusual amount of quick twitch athleticism for someone with his strength. The tools are extremely loud and the underlying data/measurables back up the tools. The toolshed from Nevada has at least plus tools in his speed, power, and arm. Turley has some of the best hand and bat speed among high schoolers. The swing has some moving parts and there is definitely violence with the swing. Turley hits from an open stance with a toe tap and big leg kick. It’s an explosive swing with good hip/shoulder separation and barrel speed through the zone. Because of how quickly his hands work and the acceleration of his swing, Turley is able to get extended early and make contact way out in front, even against good velocity. The ball flies off the bat and he’s registered several 103+ exit velos this summer with a max fly ball distance above 410 feet. He’s able to keep things compact even with the violence and moving parts which is not an easy feat. Any time you see a swing like this you have to question how it will work at the next level. Turley struck out 5 times in 10 ABs at the 2021 Area Code Games, but his 2 hits were a home run and a triple that banged off the left centerfield wall. I could see Turley being susceptible to offspeed which is something that will be monitored this spring.
Turley turned in an elite 6.29 60-yard dash time at PG National this summer and he’s been below 6.60 at several other events as well. He can flat out fly on the bases and he has the type of speed necessary to stick in center. In all likelihood, Turley will probably end up straddling the above average/plus line as a runner. He also has plenty of arm for either center or right field with recorded OF velos above 95 MPH. Even if Turley has to move off CF down the road, he has the tools to be a defensive asset in right field. Overall, Turley is an exciting prep prospect with a rare assortment of physical gifts and baseball tools. Turley is part of an elite tier of prep athletes, a group that also includes 1-1 candidate Elijah Green. We’ll see how the contact looks this spring.
38. Brady Neal
Position: Catcher
School: IMG Academy (FL)
Commitment: LSU
This has been a huge year for preps reclassifying from the 2023 class. Both Walter Ford and Cam Collier will be included in my top 50. Brady Neal, a high school catcher from IMG Academy in Florida, is a third high schooler that decided to make himself eligible for the 2022 draft. Because of the reclassification, Neal will be one of the youngest players available in the draft. He’s proven that he has no issue competing against older competition as he more than held his own at big events including 2 hits (1 double) at the PG All American Classic. The lefthanded hitting catcher has handled quality velocity and isn’t fazed by lefty/lefty matchups.
Neal has a compact build at 5’10/180 with a nice blend of durability and athleticism. The body looks well suited for catching at the next level with a well-proportioned lower half that should allow him to remain strong and flexible as he ages. He has solid foot speed for a catcher with the ability to post solid average run times. The approach at the plate is very mature. Neal has a good knowledge of the strike zone and he knows his own strengths and weaknesses as a hitter. It’s a well-balanced swing that allows him to cover the entire plate. Neal has shown mostly line drive contact but it’s hard contact to all fields. He doesn’t try to do too much and is an extra base threat from pole to pole. There’s some loft and sneaky pull side pop, but this is definitely a hit over power profile for now. There are power gains to be had and Neal has recorded some triple digit exit velos during games.
The reports on Neal’s defense as a catcher from scouts and evaluators has been mostly solid. He receives praise for his ability and dedication to blocking balls while showing soft hands that aid in his receiving. The arm doesn’t draw plus grades but scouts think he’ll be able to control the running game with the quickness of his transfer and his accuracy. Neal’s quickness and speed would probably play at a handful of positions including corner outfield, third base, and second base. Because his bat is so advanced and the arm isn’t truly plus, I could see a team moving him off the position eventually to fast track him to the majors. Prep catchers are a risky demographic and teams are more willing than ever to let them “prove it” in college. Neal is the type of catching prospect that I don’t think teams will dismiss outright. He’s a top 3 rounder.
37. Tristan Smith
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: Boiling Springs (SC)
Commitment: Clemson
We are about to go on a lefty pitcher run, starting with Tristan Smith. I’ve grouped these 5 lefties tightly and I’ll do a more thorough look at each as the spring unfolds. All of them have mid-first round potential. Smith has the size (6’2/200) and physicality to fit a power lefty profile in the future. He has a low effort delivery with a higher ¾ release point. It’s a shorter arm action with very quick arm speed which when added to his crossfire type delivery, provides a good deal of deception. There can be some timing issues as he looks to maintain and repeat his mechanics which can cause some minor harm to the quality of his stuff and serious harm to his command and control.
Smith is already up to 95 MPH with the fastball and he’ll typically sit in the low 90s. His fastball is a high spinner and it plays up from the unique angle that he’s able to get through his delivery/arm slot. There’s both running and sinking action and it’s an explosive pitch at times. He may have the type of fastball that can play well both up and down in the strike zone. The breaking ball is one of the top secondary pitches in the 2022 prep class. It’s a sweepy slider with elite power and spin. He can command the pitch well and he is able to tunnel it with his fastball effectively. The spin rates are north of 3,000 RPMs and he’s able to use it as a weapon against both lefties and righties. There’s also an occasional changeup that Smith has some feel for though it’s a bit too firm and lacks deception presently. Smith will need to improve his consistency and command for both his fastball and slider to reach max potential. His changeup is a distant third pitch that will need refinement at the next level. The overall package is already pretty exciting and there’s certainly room for more progression. Smith has some reliever risk but the stuff would project in a late-inning/high leverage role.
36. Jackson Ferris
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: IMG Academy (FL)
Commitment: Ole Miss
It’s important to note that I don’t have a true preference for any of the 5 lefties that fall in this 37-33 range. The ranks are interchangeable at least until the spring baseball season gets into full swing. Try not to read too much into the current landing spots for these arms.
Jackson Ferris probably has the most ideal pitcher’s build of these 5 arms (Smith, Ferris, Noah Schultz, Hunter Barco, Carson Whisenhunt). He’s a super loose athlete with a long build and physical projection remaining. You can see the makings of a true horse with further strength and durability gains in the near term. Ferris has a long arm action with an arm slot that is not quite over the top but probably a tick above high ¾. It’s a mostly clean operation and the mechanics look repeatable for the future.
Ferris has hit 97 MPH with his fastball but has been in the 90-94 range as a starter. He’s shown the ability to sit a few ticks higher than that in shorter outings with consistent mid 90s velocity. Ferris gets a fantastic downhill angle on his fastball with late riding life. His fastball can be a put away pitch on its own and more consistent velocity could be in the cards with the way he throws his fastball with such little effort. The breaking ball is a curveball that has swing and miss potential. There are some issues repeating his mechanics/arm slot when throwing the breaker. At its best, it shows big, tight spin with solid depth and some sweeping action. The feel for spin is here but Ferris will need to work on remaining consistent with the pitch. His changeup flashes above average but needs some refinement. It’s a high 70s/low 80s pitch that is likely to improve with further usage. Ferris pitches with a ton of confidence and he’s content with a fastball-heavy approach during starts. Ferris will face some of the better high school competition this spring as a member of IMG Academy. If his secondary pitches pop this spring, he could separate himself from the rest of the prep lefty pack in a big way.
35. Noah Schultz
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: Oswego East (IL)
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Noah Schultz is the biggest of the 5 lefties by a significant margin. Noah is 6’9/220 with an XL frame that is both long and lanky. He has excellent projectability and can be imposing on the mound. Schultz offers a very unique look from the left side. He has a short arm action and an arm slot that is basically sidearm. His delivery is simple and the effort level is quite low. There are some occasional timing issues but it’s not a huge concern. When you consider Schultz’s immense size and funky mechanics it’s impressive that he’s able to repeat things as well as he does as a teenager.
The fastball velocity can fluctuate a little bit but is typically a low 90s pitch. He’s been down into the upper 80s at times but appearances like that have grown rare. Schultz can touch 93-94 and the pitch can play above its velocity at times with movement and the deception created by the delivery. He’ll get impressive arm side run on the pitch at times with max spin rates into the 2,500s. When Schultz can work the fastball up in the zone it’s a deadly pitch that can rack up whiffs in bunches.
Schultz also has an impressive secondary pitch with his slider. He’s able to command the pitch effectively to specific locations which makes it a weapon against lefties and righties. It’s a high spinner (max spin rate 2,900+) with frisbee-type movement in the low 80s. Schultz will also toss some slurvy type breakers that are in a slightly lower velocity band. It’s a sharp pitch that has long term potential as well. His changeup flashes solid but isn’t used too often yet. The fading action on the pitch makes it a solid weapon against righties when located effectively away. Schultz is a really intriguing and unique prospect in this draft. He checks a lot of boxes already but there also seems to be a lot of optimization and development opportunities ahead. Schultz could be a tough sign when you consider the depth of the lefty pitching class and his Vanderbilt commitment.
34. Hunter Barco
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: Florida
Barco is probably the most widely known of the 5 lefties. The Mets made a late run at signing Barco on day 3 of the 2019 draft but he ended up at Florida. Barco’s 2020 season was cut short and then he put up less than stellar numbers in 2021 (83 IP, 4.01 ERA, 94 K, 26 BB, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR.9). For a pitcher with his stuff and pedigree, he was way more hittable than you’d like to see. But there are reasons for optimism as we inch closer towards the 2022 college season.
Barco looks more physical this fall and he’s starting to really fill out his projectable 6’4/220 frame with strength. Barco releases from a low ¾ arm slot with some deception added by his shorter arm action. He’s able to get extended in his delivery and he uses the length in his delivery to work from a good angle. You can see some stiffness there at times, especially with the finish and landing. I’d like to see a little more twitch and flexibility this spring.
It can be hard to get a read on Barco’s arsenal because of how varied he’ll look from start to start. Barco has shown us mid 90s velocity in the past but was mostly 89-92 with his fastball in 2021. As I mentioned before, his stuff will play up with the deception in his delivery, but right now the velocity just isn’t consistent. He has trouble commanding the fastball consistently which is a big reason why his hit/9 and HR/9 numbers were so mediocre. When he’s able to locate the fastball down in the zone it can be a solid average offering. Barco’s low 80s slider will vary depending on when you see him. It’s a plus pitch on a good day with big horizontal sweep. He seems to be able to command his slider better than his fastball and Barco is comfortable going to the pitch to start at bats or when behind in the count. The changeup will flash between above average to plus and it can be his best pitch overall on occasion. It’s a legit weapon when he has feel for the pitch, showing mid 80s velocity and splitter-type movement. It goes without saying that 2022 will be a huge season for Barco. The third year of a college player's career is usually when you see a significant jump in ability and skill. If Barco is able to make that jump for the Gators, he’s a mid 1st round talent.
33. Carson Whisenhunt
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: East Carolina
We saw Whisenhunt begin to blossom during the 2022 spring. The results weren’t quite there but you could tell that things were starting to click for him. That continued into the summer where Whisenhunt showed rapid growth as a member of the USA College National Team. There are some similarities between Whisenhunt and Cardinals 1st rounder and Kansas State ace Jordan Wicks. Both are college lefties with low 90s fastball velocity and a difference maker in their changeups. I think Wicks showed early on that he was extremely polished. Whisenhunt hasn’t shown that level of polish just yet so we’ll have to see how he looks this spring. But the overall package for Whisenhunt is a smidge more “exciting” when compared to Wicks. Whisenhunt has a longer, looser athletic body with more physical projection remaining. His fastball, while similar in velocity, shows a bit more potential in the bat missing department. Finally, Whisenhunt’s feel and ability to spin a breaking ball is at least a half grade ahead of where Wicks was on draft day.
Whisenhunt does a great job using his size and athleticism on the mound to work downhill from a high ¾ slot. The delivery and arm action are both clean and in control which bodes well for his future command. The fastball will sit comfortably in the 90-94 range and he holds it throughout starts. It’s a high spin fastball (2,300-2,400 RPMs) that plays up because of the angle he gets through his delivery and higher arm slot. There could be more velocity in the tank and Whisenhunt has flashed the ability to locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. The gains that Whisenhunt showed with his breaking ball last year were very encouraging. It’s a low 80s pitch with max spin rates in the 2,600s. It has some nice downward action and tight spin. PBR/D1Baseball’s resident scout David Seifert called the pitch “a ground ball/soft contact offering more than a bat misser”. That appears to be the case currently but if the development of that pitch continues, it would give Whisenhunt another whiff generating secondary. It’s certainly a better pitch at its best than the breaking ball we saw last spring from Wicks. The changeup is what puts Whisenhunt in the 1-2 round conversation. It’s at least a plus pitch and it may actually be double plus. Whisenhunt shows off all the characteristics of an elite changeup with the way he sells it and the movement he gets on the pitch. It can be an effective weapon against both righties and lefties and Whisenhunt has no problem doubling or tripling up on the pitch as well as using it when behind in the count.
My current grade for Whisenhunt (40+ FV) is slightly behind where I graded Jordan Wicks (45 FV) at the time of the draft 2021. Whisenhunt will likely rank up to a 45 FV early if he demonstrates the kind of polish and consistency that we saw with Wicks. I think Whisenhunt has a bit of a higher ceiling (possibly 50 FV) because of the body, the fastball utility, and the ability to flash a quality breaking ball. Whisenhunt is primed for a big 2022 and it would not surprise me if he was selected ahead of where Wicks went (21st overall) last year.
32. Walter Ford
Position: Right Handed Pitcher
School: Pace (AL)
Commitment: Alabama
Walter Ford reclassified in late September; a decision that makes him eligible for the 2022 draft a year early. He has legitimate two-way potential but the vast majority of evaluators believe his future is on the mound. I considered putting Ford in the “wait and see” group rather than ranking him on my board. A couple of YouTube videos uploaded in October were a big help in figuring out where I wanted to slot Ford on my first draft board. The first video came from Keanan Lamb of Baseball Prospectus while the second (embedded below) came from Patrick Ebert. I also reached out to some other draftniks and combed over reports to quickly get up to speed.
Ford has a large 6’3/195 build with present strength and a projectable frame. He’s a premium athlete with high end physical tools. His delivery is athletic with an arm that works fast. Ford releases from a high slot and throws with moderate effort. His fastball has ranged anywhere from 90-95 and he was up to 97 MPH at PG National. The fastball has elite raw spin numbers in the 2,400-2,600 RPM range. The ball comes out of the hand smoothly and with life, especially to the bottom of the strike zone. Ford gets good arm side run on the fastball and he’ll flash some cut at times too. He has an advanced ability for manipulating the spin and movement on his fastball. The pitch has bat missing qualities at its best with a high IVB and low horizontal break (HB) which suggest heavy backspin. There is likely more velocity in the tank and it would not be surprising if he was sitting in the mid 90s (94+) as a pro.
Ford has a fantastic feel for tunneling his 80-84 MPH slider. He’s able to maintain a similar slot and arm speed with his fastball which makes it hard for hitters to pick up early. Ford will get average spin rates above 2,600+ on the slider and it has very sharp movement. The movement is late, the bite is hard, and he can land it in the zone for strikes. It’s a potential plus pitch that you can project as a bat misser moving forward. I haven’t seen or heard enough about his changeup to project it moving forward. Hopefully, we’ll see more of it this spring. It’s a low 80s pitch with some fade and HB up to 14 inches. Further development and refinement on the changeup are likely moving forward.
There is a surprising amount of polish here when you consider his age (he’s still under 17) and two-way history. Ford is a high ceiling arm with the potential to rise up boards this high school season.
31 . Cayden Wallace
Position: Outfield/Third Base
School: Arkansas
I really liked what I saw from Cayden Wallace as a high school prospect in 2020. He came in at #80 on my final draft board and was my 2nd highest rated third baseman in that draft behind Jordan Walker. Here’s what I said about Wallace back in 2020:
"Combines above average strength and bat speed for better than average raw power. Advanced approach with a track record of hitting at big events. High exit velos with a line drive approach. He may not be a true power hitter at the next level but he has the potential to be an above average hitter overall. Wallace profiles well at third base and will likely be a defensive asset at the hot corner. Solid overall collection of tools."
What’s interesting to me is how Wallace has remained a high-level draft prospect over a year later but with a slightly different profile. On the defensive side, Wallace barely saw any time at third base as a freshman which was very surprising to me. I thought Wallace could develop into an above average or plus defensive third baseman. That was likely a product of Arkansas’ stacked lineup but it makes evaluating Wallace as a defender quite difficult. He didn’t play third on the Cape this summer but has looked good there this fall according to D1Baseball.
At the plate, Wallace is looking more like a natural power hitter. He likes to do damage early in counts and he’ll sell out a bit for pull side, fly ball contact. He’ll adjust to a more all fields approach later in counts but there’s still a bit more aggression than in the past. The elevation of his swing has increased which probably explains both the power numbers and the strikeouts. Wallace now has plus raw power that can play to any part of the field. He’s also maintained a disciplined approach that should allow him to get on base and get to his power in 2022. He’s also a quality runner and a surprising athlete for his size/build (6’0/205). Wallace has early first round potential if he can cut down on the strikeouts, especially if he proves that he can handle third base.
30. Justin Crawford
Position: Outfield
School: Bishop Gorman (NV)
Commitment: LSU
Justin Crawford is the son of 4 time all star Carl Crawford. Justin’s game is not all that different from his father’s. Crawford’s elite, twitchy athleticism is evident in just about everything he does on the ball field. His 6’3/175 frame is poised to add good strength with a long, lean build with broad shoulders. His hands are loose and quick at the plate and he already has a handle on being a table setter at the top of a lineup. Crawford looks to get on base/put the bat on the ball and let his legs do the work. He’s a true 80 grade runner and its game changing speed. He’s also a smart and instinctual baserunner who knows when to take chances and when to be patient. Just like his father, Justin is going to steal a lot of bases and record his fair share of infield hits at the next level. Crawford showed off a bit more aggression at WWBA last month during a 3 game sample. Crawford looked more willing to get extended out front and used his budding strength to drive the ball. He now flashes pull side power and the ability to turn on inside heat. It’s a loose and whippy swing through the zone with good hip to shoulder separation and weight transfer ability. Crawford has recorded exit velos above 100 MPH at multiple events. He keeps moving the needle forward on his power potential and that could continue this spring.
Crawford moves well in the outfield and covers ground that many centerfielders can’t get to. He’ll have no problem handling centerfield from a range standpoint. The one defensive question is the arm. He doesn’t have the quickest release and the raw arm strength is currently below average. If Crawford’s arm can’t play in center, he would settle into a left field role. . . just like his dad. If Crawford continues to hit the way he did at WWBA he’ll be a day 1 pick this summer.
29. Zach Maxwell
Position: Right Handed Pitcher
School: Georgia Tech
I was a big fan of Maxwell coming out of high school. He was drafted in the 30th round by the Yankees in 2019 but chose not to sign. Any time there’s a larger pitcher on the mound the term “imposing” gets thrown out, whether it’s deserved or not. Well, Zach Maxwell definitely deserves it as his combination of size (6’7/275), stuff, and delivery make for an extremely uncomfortable at-bat for opposing hitters. It’s a little concerning that Maxwell is this large at such a young age but for the time being, it absolutely works in his favor. He attacks hitters from a higher arm slot and moves down the mound well for his size, allowing him to work downhill to overpower his opponents. Both his fastball and slider are lively pitches with good shape and sharp movement. His fastball is an explosive heater that sits comfortably in the mid 90s and has reached 99 MPH in the past. It’s one of the best fastballs in the 2021 class with heavy backspin, giving it a ton of riding life up in the zone. The breaking ball is not on the same level as his fastball but it will flash plus at times. Being able to locate his mid 80s slider, which typically shows 11/5 shape, will need significant improvement for the pitch to play at a plus level. The fastball/slider combination is devastating when executed properly. Even with below average command, the pairing is overwhelming at the college level.
Unfortunately, Maxwell hasn’t been able to limit the walks or locate effectively in the zone. His career walk rate at Georgia Tech is 11.1 BB/9. Maxwell showed improved control on the Cape this summer but his BB/9 was still nearly 7.0 in an 11.2 inning sample. There will be outings where Maxwell isn’t able to maintain a consistent release point. I’ve seen Maxwell come out firing on all cylinders, have things get out of whack, and then struggle to get things back in sync the rest of the way. His delivery isn’t too complicated and he doesn’t need to exert a ton of effort to get to his velocity. This bodes well for his ability to make substantial gains to his command moving forward. There’s a long list of pitchers with this type of body/profile that weren’t able to throw strikes at an acceptable level, causing them to flame out long before they reached the majors. But there aren’t too many pitchers with 70 grade fastballs that are available in any given draft. Call it a hunch, but I’m a believer in Maxwell. I see a big college season for him on the horizon. Even if he continues to perform the way he did from 2020-2021 he’s likely to be selected in the 3-5 round range. Joe Boyle serves as a decent comp for Maxwell’s draft stock. Maxwell has 2-3 round potential if he’s able to show control/command gains this spring.
28. Jacob Berry
Position: Third Base/First Base
School: LSU
Jacob Berry was #254 on my 2020 board. Here’s what I wrote:
“Strong and athletic switch hitter who can swing it from both sides. Loud contact and the ability to barrel balls with loft. Strong arm but questionable actions at third. May fit more in a corner outfield spot. Bat first prospect.”
I thought Berry would hit at Arizona out of the gate but he took his offensive game to another level. The home run power (17 HR) was unexpected for me as I thought Berry would be closer to average in the power department. He has a lot of compact strength in his 6’0/205 frame and he is more physically advanced than your typical college freshman. Berry controls the strike zone with a balanced and polished approach which remains consistent as both a righty and lefty hitter. He keeps things simple at the plate and avoids extraneous movement. Berry has excellent barrel feel with a swing plane that allows him to hit line drives and hard fly balls. It's surprising that he whiffed as much as he did (58 K, 19.5%) given his offensive tools but it's not too much of a concern for me. Berry has the potential to be a versatile hitter at the next level with his ability to switch hit, work counts, make contact, and hit dingers.
With that said, it was only one year. I want to see how he looks in 2022 before I move him up my board any further. He’s part of a trio of players that I have in a “holding pattern” where I’m refraining from moving them up until I see them this spring. I think you can make an argument that his power is not quite this loud and that it's playing up because of his approach and maxed out physicality. This is kind of what we saw with Seth Beer when he was at Clemson. Berry also has limitations on defense. He played 9 games at third base last year and was mostly a DH for Arizona. The reports on his defense at third have not been glowing and many evaluators are already penciling him in as a first baseman. Berry transferred from Arizona to LSU and he’ll get a chance to hit in the heart of a high powered LSU lineup against SEC opponents. He’s a likely first rounder who has top 5 overall potential.
27. Daniel Susac
Position: Catcher
School: Arizona
Susac is my 2nd “holding pattern” college bat (my third will be in my top 25). He’s the younger brother of former Giant Andrew Susac. Daniel’s freshman season at Arizona couldn’t have gone much better. He won just about every award imaginable, finished just shy of a 1.000 OPS, led the Wildcats to the College World Series, and played for the College National Team over the summer. He has a long and lanky frame with present strength but also a good amount of projection remaining. Susac is well built and durable with looseness and quickness that is atypical for such a tall catcher (6’4/205).
Susac produced some very impressive batted ball numbers during his freshman season at Arizona. There’s plus raw power that plays to every field. There’s so much intent with the swing which allows him to leverage pull side contact. It's probably a power over average type profile but Susac doesn’t swing and miss much, especially at pitches in the strike zone. I don’t think its out of the question for Susac to hit his way to #1 overall the way Henry Davis did last year.
He's also a legit catcher. Susac excels in the catch and throw department and he isn’t afraid to show off his rocket arm. Reports on his receiving and movements behind the plate have been encouraging. He runs at a near average level and his quickness overall is impressive for his size and position. He’ll likely be a below average runner as his body matures, but he certainly won’t be a base clogger. Susac is a well-rounded catching prospect that has a legitimate future behind the plate. The only thing he lacks at this point is a longer track record of performance which could change quickly. I really like what I’ve seen from Susac and I expect him to move up significantly this spring. For now, I’m content with waiting until we see him in action again this spring.
26. Connor Prielipp
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
School: Alabama
Prielipp’s story is one that has become far too familiar over the past several years. The promising lefty had Tommy John Surgery in late May and will miss the entirety of the 2022 college season. He made just a handful of appearances with Alabama last year and had his 2020 season cut short by the pandemic. In the brief time that we saw Connor Prielipp on the mound he dazzled us all with his combination of polished stuff, easy delivery, and command of a fastball/slider combination. Connor Prielipp wasn’t just on his way towards being a top college pitcher for the 2022 draft, he was looking like a favorite to go 1st overall. Prielipp packed on a lot of mass to his long, projectable frame during the fall of 2020. Observers saw a 97 MPH fastball and a slider in the 88-90 MPH range with command of both pitches. Both pitches are data darlings and they play up with the way Prielipp pairs them together. He started showing the making of a quality changeup that could, at the very least, be a usable third pitch moving forward. The caliber of stuff and command is elite and he dominated during his small sample of innings. Prielipp will likely finish his career with the following video game numbers:
There’s obviously a lot of risk involved with Prielipp. We haven’t seen him pitch late into games or handle a season long workload. And while TJ recovery usually goes pretty smoothly these days, there is never a guarantee that a ballplayer will bounce back fully. But at 26th overall, Prielipp settles in as a late 1st first round pick which is right where I’d feel comfortable taking him. We saw Dax Fulton get selected 40th overall in 2020. We saw Jaden Hill get selected 44th last year. I like Prielipp better than both of those guys and it wouldn’t cost too much more in terms of draft capital at 26th. The upside? You get the best player in the draft who is likely to be fully recovered and ready to suit up for a full 2023 season. I have Prielipp at a 45 FV and that’s going to remain the same unless something goes wrong with his rehab. There will be other players that will ultimately pass him as the spring progresses so his final ranking spot will almost certainly be lower than this in a few months. I think he’s deserving of a top 30 pick and he'll be a tremendous value for a team on day 1 of the draft.
Wait And See
All of the players listed here received consideration for my top 50 board. I didn’t feel comfortable ranking them in the top 50 because I didn’t see/hear enough about them to date. Several of the high school guys came on strong late (Charles, Perez, Santos) so I’ll wait to see how they look in a few months.
Two players in particular, Gavin Cross and Zach Neto, are clearly worthy of being ranked in the top 50. I’m just not entirely sure where to place them. Cross and Neto are priorities for me this spring and will likely make an appearance on my draft board in February or March after games have started.
Eligibility?
Because we don’t have a firm draft date yet, it remains to be seen what college players will end up being eligible by age. Colby Halter would definitely be in my top 50 while Alex Freeland probably gets a little consideration at the very end. If the draft is held on the same day as last year (July 11th) or if MLB targets the 2nd Sunday of July (July 10th in this case) then both Halter and Freeland would be draft eligible this year by a day or two.