We move on to the lefties in this update. 9 more names to check out in this piece. We'll shift on over to the bats starting next week. I'll have writeups for over 20 infielders to starting things off next week. You can check out my draft board for May HERE or use the widget thingy that I find entertaining.
Matt Mikulski continues his ascent up my board. He's gone from #261 on my final 2020 board, to #117 on my April board, and now sits comfortably at #55. I think this matches well with where he is likely to be selected in July; somewhere before the beginning of the 3rd round. The stuff he is showing on the mound this year is 1st round kind of stuff, but his age (just over 22 on draft day) and level of competition could be enough to keep him out of the 1st. I could also see him being an attractive option for a team with multiple early picks. The Cincinnati Reds have a comp round pick at #30 and a competitive balance round pick at #35 which would make sense as landing spots for Mikulski. Here's a clip of Mikulski from April.
Nothing has "changed" in regards to Josh Hartle. I think I had him a bit too low previously. Sometimes you don't notice when you are light on somebody until you start slotting them in on your board. Hartle is impressive mechanically as his delivery is low effort and repeatable. He shows a projectable build which makes me feel better about his lack of "now" velocity (he's usually 88-91)). The fastball is pitch data-friendly and he pairs it with a potential plus curveball. Has feel for a changeup and his command is some of the best among the top ranked prep arms. This is the kind of pitcher that falls just enough in the draft to make it to campus and then looks like a no doubt 1st rounder for 3 years. I flirted with the idea of Putting Hartle in the 35-50 range this month. He's definitely a candidate to move up further in future updates.
I've been lukewarm on Andrew Abbott this year but he's done too much to stay at a 35+ FV. A little background on Abbott first. Abbott was mostly a high leverage reliever for Virginia and had only 3 starts coming into 2021. However, he showed a lot of starting pitcher elements and that dated back to his phenomenal showing in the Cape Cod League back in 2018 following his freshman season. The only reason why the 4th year junior is still on campus is because of the craziness that resulted from the pandemic with a special thanks to last year's 5 round draft. Instead of going pro, Abbott pitched Friday nights for Virginia and provided a ton of stability for a team that hasn't exactly lived up to expectations.
Abbott is a plus athlete and that athleticism serves him well on the mound in lieu of size/physicality. He's listed at 6'0/175 and has a slender build with wiry strength. He's got a quick delivery that has some funk that adds to his deception. Abbott repeats his delivery and arm slot and throws with easy velocity. His fastball plays differently depending on where it's located. I love the way it plays at the top of the zone and it shows rising action. He's been up to 95 and will hold 90-93 during his starts. His command of the pitch can be inconsistent which is one of the reasons why I'm not 100% sold on him remaining a starter. I will say that the command has looked better this year than when I saw him in 2019-2020 and I think getting more consistent innings has been a big reason. The curveball is the go-to strikeout pitch for Abbott. It has big spin, two-plane movement, and it tunnels well with the fastball. Definitely a plus pitch. He's done a good job of developing his changeup this year but it's a fringe average pitch; a decent weapon against lefties but not a pitch that's likely to rack up whiffs. The overall command is improving and projects much better than it did a year ago, but it's closer to a 45/50 than a true 50. The performance this year for Abbott has been fantastic and he goes into the ACC tournament with the following line:
82.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 127 K, 27 BB, 65 H, 11 HR, 4.70 K:BB ratio.
The worry here is that because Abbott doesn't have premium velocity or a consistently average third pitch, his spotty command isn't going to be enough to turn over a lineup multiple times. But as I talked about in my righty pitcher post, the way pitchers are used today and the way velocity can be developed in pro ball plays in Abbott's favor. If you project a bit on the fastball and turn him loose as a 2-3 inning reliever you have a fantastic weapon for your team. Abbott will likely go in the 2-3 round area despite already being 22. I like him a bit better starting in the late 3rd round which jives with where I have him ranked currently. Abbott also receives praise for his work ethic, mound presence, and high baseball IQ. D1Baseball was on the scene for Abbott's best start of the year against Wake Forest where he struck out 16 batters and didn't give up a hit over 6.1 innings. Check out the video below:
Eastern Oklahoma State College, one of the better junior college teams this spring, has a weekend rotation that would probably hold it's own in a power conference at the D1 level. Andrew Walling is the final EOSC arm getting a grade bump this month. The lefty of the group currently ranks the highest of their big three (McGowan, Sandlin, Walling) and is closing in on a top 100 spot on my board. Walling was originally at Oregon State but didn't get a ton of mound time. He was eased along in 2019 as he was recovering from TJ surgery from his senior year in high school. Obviously, he didn't pitch much last year and ultimately finished with 10.2 innings at OSU. He showed low 90s velocity before in high school and it took him a while to build his arm up to that level. showing a lot of high 80s upon his return. But his stuff took a massive leap over the 2020 summer and it's held this spring. Reports this spring have been astounding. He's supposedly hit 100 MPH on the fastball and there are plenty of clips and reports of Walling sitting mid 90s during starts. He shows excellent arm speed from an over the top arm slot. Walling throws with effort and reports suggest he doesn't always repeat his delivery which gives me some pause when considering his future command ceiling. But Walling is more than just a big fastball. The slider is a potential plus pitch and his changeup can be above average as well. He finishes the 4 pitch mix with a curve that lags behind but gives Walling a usable option as a pro. Clearly, Walling's profile is high variance. The control/command concerns (his BB/9 is right around 3.5) are a risk. The health/past TJ is a risk. The short track record is a risk. But mid-to-high 90s lefties with two present 55 offspeed pitches are extremely rare. You can quite literally count those guys on one hand in this year's class.
I'm going to rely heavily on history to help me determine where he falls in the draft. If we look back to 2020 we can find two lefties from the junior college level with good stuff and command/health concerns. Those two pitchers are Luke Little and Mitchell Parker who were drafted out of San Jacinto last year. Little was a 4th rounder for the Cubs at pick #117 while Parker was selected in the 5th by the Nationals at #153 overall. Interestingly enough, both of those pitchers had SEC commitments lined up for 2021. Walling is committed to Mississippi State next year. I'd say Walling is a good bet to go in that 4-5 round area, give or take a round or so. Walling currently stands as the 16th ranked lefty in this draft for me and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him climbing a few spots between now and July. Ian Smith has been such a fantastic source for amateur prospect info/videos this year. He saw Walling back in April and posted this clip on Twitter. Thanks, Ian!
I'm lower on Anthony Solometo than most. Lefties that throw from his kind of slot make me hyperventilate. I haven't been diagnosed yet, but I'm pretty sure I have Kodi Medeiros induced PTSD. I'll admit it, I really liked Medeiros and I wanted him to be good. He hasn't been good. You'll see 45 FV or even 50 FV grades on Solometo. I'm being cautious here and I'll gladly take the "L" if Solometo proves me wrong. A lefty that provides me with warm and fuzzy Kodi Medeiros vibes that's also a native of New Jersey? Ya, I'll be rooting for that guy every step of the way. If you told me he was available/signable for the Giants in the 4th or 5th round I'd be all aboard that train. You could probably even sell me on him as a 3rd rounder. But Solometo is likely to be taken earlier than that. I'd be surprised if he got past the 2nd round at this point. Take a look at Solometo in this MLB.com clip below:
It's unorthodox, to say the least. Two names were mentioned in that clip. Sure, Madison Bumgarner is the ultimate prize for every pitcher that throws like this. But remember . . . Kodi Medeiros. SHUDDER!!! Notice the other name mentioned here, Mackenzie Gore. What are we finding out with Gore? We're finding out that either Gore's command has backed up over the past ~12 months or the industry was overrating it all along. There are good arguments for both of those possibilities but the fact remains that command is a big question for Gore now. What has held Medeiros back? I'll give you a hint, it starts with a "C". Command. Solometo's command is surprisingly good, especially the command of his fastball. Will it be good enough as a pro? I have some doubts. The deception and angle from that delivery/arm slot can't be understated. It's a big reason why Madison Bumgarner will forever be a Bay Area legend. But you know what else contributed to that? Command.
If you believe in Solometo's ability to command the ball, you are going to have him ranked high. I tend to lean towards Madison Bumgarner being the exception to the rule in this case. I'm moving him up this month because the reports and video coming out this spring have been better than I expected. But remember . . . Kodi Medeiros. GASP!!! Solometo sits low 90s and has touched 97. His slurvy breaking ball works because of the deception and angle. The changeup could be a weapon in time or, like with Bumgarner, he might not need it much as a pro. Expect to hear his name called somewhere in the first couple of rounds.
We still have over a month until draft day but I'm giving Frank Mozzicato the crown for top popup arm of the 2021 draft cycle. I'm pretty certain every scout that attended Chase Petty's 5/23 outing in Trenton, New Jersey was on the road for Connecticut shortly after Petty's final pitch that evening. Mozzicato took the mound the next day and threw a no-hitter. That was his 4th no-hitter in a row. I get it. It's high school baseball in the northeast. But 4 consecutive no-hitters, the final one being in front of scouts/decision makers for pretty much every MLB team? That's loud. He checks a lot of boxes. At 6'2/160 he's highly projectable and has an ideal pitcher's frame. He has a clean, repeatable delivery with easy velocity. He's touched 94 this spring and throws plus curveball after plus curveball in games. He shows command of both his fastball and curveball. He reportedly can sell a changeup, though he rarely uses it.
The only thing missing here is track record and performance against a higher level of competition. High school pitchers from Connecticut rarely get drafted and signed so history is not on the side of him going pro. But all it takes is one player to buck that trend and the upside that Mozzicato has is going to be difficult for teams to ignore. I'm betting on him going in the 2-4 round area. The performance and scouting heat he's had on him make me believe that at least one team will take the Mozzicato plunge. He takes a massive jump on my board, basically going from "name in a spreadsheet/35 FV bucket" to a near top 150 prospect. To be clear the #150 ranking is conservative. It's not out of the question for him to move up another 50-100 spots or so. Mozzicato is special. I first heard of Mozzicato from this Jheremy Brown mini-tweet thread which includes two videos.
I saw Robert Gasser's first start of the season on 2/20 and tweeted this:
He was a late cut for my "Sleeper Pitchers" list but he was certainly on my watch list. Gasser didn't have much buzz entering the year so I'd consider myself the "high man" on him in February/March. I knew a bit about Gasser's history as a high upside juco transfer who was out of whack in 2020. Fall reports were strong and his 95 MPH fastball/above avg slider combo in that February start backed up the reports. Fast forward 3 months and now I'm way behind on Gasser. I hate when this happens. This is when I get questions like "Why don't you like X player. Why do you have him so low?" I swear I like him. I like him a lot. I'm going to let the college season play out before moving him up to a 40 or 40+ FV which is where he likely belongs. Gasser shows a projectable body with a fastball in the low 90s, a plus slider, and a curve/changeup that flash average. He throws strikes and can command his fastball at the top of the zone and his breaking stuff down. Gasser is likely to go somewhere in the 3-6 round area. If you are wondering how far up my personal board Gasser is likely to go for the June update (assuming things hold) I'd take a look at where Ohio's Joe Rock currently ranks (#107) and go from there. Keanan Lamb had some great video of Gasser here:
Nick Jones is going to do very well on draft day despite being mostly unknown. Book it. Take a look at the stat line:
Those are video game numbers. It's not in a power conference but he's performed against some quality lioneups. He handled Tennessee, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Coastal Carolina to name a few. If you are familiar with Matt Collier's FaBIO system you'll be happy to know that Jones stands out there too. Jones received a 97 grade in control, a 100 grade in strikeouts, and an 85 grade in batted ball. On the batted ball side he was fantastic at limiting pulled outfield fly balls and had a 94 grade in that category while showing effectiveness against both righties and lefties (99 and 100 grades respectively). All grades were as of May 14th when I asked Matt how Jones was looking this year. Thanks to Matt for providing that info, he's such a fantastic resource.
While stats like these are impressive, they don't always tell the full story. Going into May I had yet to see Jones pitch in 2021. Thankfully, he caught the attention of Keanan Lamb who provided some excellent footage of Jones.
That's a long and lean build. It's easy velocity from a lower arm slot with some good whip. He's going to be an uncomfortable at bat out of the pen. Jones was mostly in the 88-92 area prior to this year but Keanan has him up to 95 and in the 92-94 range in this clip. After a little digging, that level of velo checks out and is probably a big reason why his stats are so elite this year. I caught an outing of his during conference play and he pounded the zone with quality strikes and an impressive two pitch combo. He has good command of a slider and it's his primary strikeout pitch. Jones was a walk on at Georgia Southern and has likely pitched his way to day 2 or early day 3 of the draft. He also had an impressive mullet and a stache that's straight out of Boogie Nights. Talk about being easy to root for.
. . . oh yes.
On the Dip
I'm not going to spend too much time talking about Drew Gray. Nothing has really changed here except for some reshuffling on my end. Gray is a two way player who has yet to fully breakout as a prospect. Definitely a pitcher at the next level. The 6'3/180 southpaw from IMG Academy is highly projectable and will be a long term development piece for the team that drafts him. His pitch data is supposedly pretty strong but his stuff could use a little more power moving forward. He's raw as a pitcher and the mechanics aren't always in sync at this stage of his career. The ceiling is quite high here which gives Gray a shot of going in the 2-4 round area to a team that really likes him. If not, he has a chance to really boost his stock at Arkansas over the next few years. You can check out Gray over on Twitter.
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