One of my favorite parts of the MLB draft is finding players "off the beaten path" that have some pro potential. A lot of times I'll make a note in my database for a player indicating they are a potential breakout performer or a sleeper for the draft. Most of the time those notes and designations get lost in the shuffle and I never really look back and review how my sleepers performed. I figure this will be a good way of formalizing this group of players which will make it much easier to review how they did over the course of the season and on draft day. This first post will cover the vast majority of college hitters that I've labeled as sleepers in my database. I'll have another post covering college pitchers in the coming days.
Before we get to it I'd like to try and define what I mean by a sleeper. There isn't a clear set of parameters but I'm typically looking at guys who don't project as a day 1 or early day 2 selection prior to the start of the season. Many of these prospects play at smaller schools/programs and don't get much attention on the national level. Here are some common profiles/backgrounds of my sleepers:
Small Schools- Players with strong statistical profiles and/or legitimate tools but attend a school that doesn't get much exposure. This includes juco and D2/D3 players.
Summer league/Fall performers- Players who performed well and have received positive reports from either summer leagues or their fall workouts on campus.
Toolsy/Athletic- Players with some legitimate major league tools but have clear flaws. High-level athletes without in-game performance/baseball skills.
Transfers- Players coming into a new program that show potential and could improve their draft stock by performing under new circumstances.
Blocked- talented players that have not received much playing time because they've been blocked by higher-profile prospects.
Injury bouncebacks- players who have had their tools/performance play down because of injury. Also, players who simply have not gotten on the field consistently in their careers.
Catchers
Alonzo Rubalcaba, Kentucky, 35 FV- Rubalcaba is a juco transfer and is slated to be the primary catcher for Kentucky this season. Rubalcaba derives a lot of his value on the defensive side of the ball where he is very advanced and is an excellent catch and throw guy behind the plate. His offense will need to hold up against the quality arms he is likely to see as a hitter in the SEC. Rubalcaba had a couple of solid, yet unspectacular summer campaigns in the wood bat Northwoods League. Could end up being drafted for his defense alone, but there's some upside with the bat as well.
Ben Metzinger, Louisville 35 FV- Metzinger has performed well when given the chance. The problem for him is the lack of openings available on a star-studded Louisville team with Omaha aspirations. He shows impressive pure hitting skills and a versatile defensive profile. He's a pretty decent catcher and can really flash the leather at second and third base. It will be interesting to see how he is utilized this spring and he might fly under the radar for teams that haven't seen much of him. Metzinger could provide sneaky value for teams that get a chance to see him on a day he's in the lineup. He's a possible top 10 round pick in my opinion.
Rob Marinec, North Central (DIII), 35 FV- Marinec stands out for his power/speed combo from the catcher position. He's an average to above-average runner and is a great athlete. He's performed well at the D3 level and had a solid showing in the Northwoods League this past summer. He doesn't have the quickest swing, which could make him susceptible to better pitching, but his hands/wrists show speed and strength and his bat speed looks to be about average. Marinec looks good behind the plate and he has plenty of arm for the position. He also is athletic enough to move around the diamond and has some experience playing on the dirt and in the outfield corners. He is supposedly slated to play in the newly established MLB draft league that runs just before the MLB draft. This event presents an opportunity for him to build his draft stock as he gains exposure against more established competition. Could be a late riser in the weeks before draft day.
Luis Aviles, Tulane, 35 FV- Aviles stands out for his plus strength and power bat. He is expected to hold down the cleanup spot for Tulane in 2021. He hit the ground running last year after transferring in from the juco level and finished the 2020 season with a 1.129 OPS, 2 homers, and 6 extra-base hits in 37 plate appearances last year. He has some prospect pedigree too, as he was a top 300 high school prospect coming out of high school according to PerfectGame. He will need to prove that he can manage the swing and miss while also handling the grind behind the plate. His catch and throw game is solid but he'll need to continue improving in the many other facets of catching to profile there long term.
Matt Suggs, UNC Wilmington, 35 FV- Suggs has some impressive tools for a catcher, with a rifle arm behind the plate, above-average raw power, and speed you don't typically find in a backstop. His offensive numbers since arriving at UNC Wilmington have been lackluster, but there is a potential breakout performer here based on the tools. He's raw on both sides of the ball but there is day 2 potential. He has experience playing corner outfield and could get some time out there on days when he isn't catching.
First Base
Thomas Francisco, East Carolina, 35+ FV- Francisco is a physically mature prospect that is more hit over power at the plate currently. He has the raw power and strength necessary to profile at first base but his swing and passive approach haven't been conducive to big power numbers. He's also missed valuable development time and game action (less than 200 PA's in his career) as he's been injured somewhat frequently. I think Francisco will benefit from pro instruction/development and is a potential swing change candidate at the next level. East Carolina has experimented with him in the corner outfield spots, but he's a definite first baseman at the next level. Francisco has a chance to be a day 2 pick, especially if his in-game power takes a step forward.
Kris Armstrong, Florida, 35+ FV- Armstong had one of the buzzier falls leading into the 2021 college season. Like Metzinger, Armstrong has been consistently blocked by other high-profile players while at Florida. He forced the issue this fall by showcasing big raw power that started to play during games and scrimmages. Armstrong reportedly took giant leaps forward with his plate approach and discipline, allowing his 70 grade raw power to play in games. The first base job is his to lose and he could also get a little time in the outfield. Armstrong could vault himself into top 5 round consideration if he performs in the SEC.
*video credit to PerfectGame College Baseball
Ryan Hernandez, Houston, 35+ FV- Hernandez really changed his body for the better over the last year or two and the results have followed. He hit 5 homers and over 50% of his hits went for extra bases in last year's shortened season. The juco transfer is a physical monster at 6'4/235 but now moves pretty well for his size, even getting some action at third base last year. Hernandez will need to work hard to keep his body in check as his XL frame may not age gracefully, but this is a legit power-hitting threat with a good approach at the plate. Hernandez is a potential top 10 round pick and is someone I've been in on for the last couple of years.
Jake McKaw- Illinois State, 35 FV- McCaw doesn't have much track record of in-game performance (.723 career OPS, 114 PA's) during his short tenure at Illinois State. The 6'3/200 lefty is an impressive physical specimen and started putting things together in 2020 after missing all of the 2019 season because of injury. He popped off this summer in the Kernels Collegiate League showing an improved understanding of the K zone and less swing and miss. He has a chance to hit for both average and power at the next level. As D1Baseball's David Seifert noted in his piece here, Missouri Valley Conference first baseman have a tendency to fly under the radar and perform above expectations in pro ball. Bryce Ball and Luke Voit being some notable examples. McCaw's lack of track record holds me back from moving him up further, but there is late day 2 potential if he performs this spring.
*video credit to D1Baseball
Kyle Manzardo, Washington State, 35+ FV- Manzardo was one of the best hitters at the D1 level in 2020's canceled season and his success carried over to the Northwoods League this summer. He shows advanced strike zone awareness and above-average to plus raw power. He has the chance to hit for average and power at the next level but I want to see him do it consistently against quality pitching before moving him up further. He's limited to first base defensively, but he moves well there and could be better than average. Manzardo has a shot to be one of the earlier first base selections this July.
CHR
STIAN JOE
Second Base
Ryan Ober, Oregon State, 35 FV- Ober has been a popular breakout candidate for a couple of years now but it hasn't materialized. It felt like Ober was going to be one of those classic "this is the year" guys that never actually has "the year". I love his approach at the plate and he really battles in each at-bat. There are pure hitting skills and barrel manipulation here and he's started to really fill out physically. I think there are some raw power gains on the horizon and the reports from the fall were very positive. He's spent a large chunk of time at first base, but that was out of team necessity. Ober is a fantastic defensive second baseman and would be a perennial gold glove finalist as a pro. I'm not sure if this will be the breakout I've been waiting for, but Ober has a prime opportunity to move into day 2 consideration.
Jeff Heinrich, South Carolina, 35 FV- Heinrich was selected by the Giants in the very last round of the 2019 draft out of McHenry County College. Unsurprisingly, he chose to follow through on his commitment to South Carolina. Heinrich's physicality is a major plus as he's an extremely strong young man. With that strength comes plus raw power, but it hasn't played in games much. He's a little too stiff at the plate and his swing is geared for gap-to-gap power. He's just an OK athlete overall. Heinrich has missed a lot of time with a variety of injuries which has held back his development as a hitter. The hope is that he stays healthy this year and locks down South Carolina's second base job. He's a solid fielder with some versatility as he has experience playing third base as well. Heinrich is a solid runner but isn't a burner by any means. The 4th year junior is going to have an opportunity to improve his draft stock significantly this spring and could go on day 2.
Third Base
Brady Slavens, Arkansas, 35+ FV- Slavens was one of the top juco hitters to make it to a D1 program this year. He's a strong, projectable hitter with middle of the order type thump. It's more bat strength than bat speed, but he's shown the ability to catch up to quality fastballs in the past. He's just an OK athlete and will need to work on his defense at third base, though he certainly has the arm for it. He'll be counted on to provide the thunder for a deep Arkansas lineup.
Andrew Benefield, Dallas Baptist, 35 FV- PerfectGame had Benefield ranked in the top 200 for the 2018 prep class. He originally played at Louisville and filled in admirably last year when Alex Binelas went down. He's now at Dallas Baptist and will look to build on a strong Northwoods League showing this past summer. Benefield has a strong, lanky build at 6'4/195 with projection remaining. He is a potential power bat who is advanced defensively.
Roberto Pena, South Florida, 35 FV- Roberto Pena originally played at the University of Florida before transferring to College of Central Florida for the 2020 season. He's back at the D1 level with USF and is expected to hit in the heart of the order. Pena shows two plus tools in his raw power and arm strength which gives him the building blocks to be one of the better third base prospects in this draft. Pena was excellent at the juco level last year (OPS over 1.000) and was one of USF's top players this fall. He will need to cut down on the swings and misses which has been an issue for him in the past.
Damiano Palmegiani, Southern Nevada JC, 35 FV- Palmegiani is one of the top juco players in the nation and stands out for his power/speed combo. He was a 35th round pick by the Blue Jays a couple of years ago and originally played at Cal State Northridge before moving to the juco level. He has plus raw power, at least above avg speed, and shows the tools necessary to handle third base, second base, and possibly centerfield. He's started off the spring season scorching hot and already has 10 homers in just 16 games. Like Marinec, Palmegiani has been announced as an MLB draft league participant which will give him some added exposure against quality competition. He could be one of the first juco bats selected this July.
*video credit to PBR Utah
Trevor Minder, Tulane, 35+ FV- I was able to get a look at Minder during opening week and came away impressed. The first thing that stood out to me was his defense. There were a few plays that normally would be tough for a college third baseman, but Minder made them look routine. He has a good approach at the plate and can identify spin pretty well. Minder has hit for power in the past but will need to keep the swings and misses in check this year. He has the chance to go in the top 10 rounds this summer. I'm kind of surprised Minder isn't getting more attention.
Shortstop
Myles Austin, Chipola JC, 35+ FV- Austin is a well-known quantity as he was a top 50 prep, got drafted in the 20th round by the Brewers in 2019, and played a year at the University of Alabama. Borrowing a fantasy sports term, Austin is a post-hype sleeper after struggling with Alabama and in the Northwoods League this summer. He's looking more like his old self this year with Chipola and currently has an OPS over .900 with 3 homers and 5 steals in 17 games. Both his raw power and speed are above average and he's one of the best athletes at the juco level this year. I'm not sure if he will be a shortstop long term, but his fallback options are second base and centerfield where he'd likely be a plus defender. Austin's big drawback? The K's. He already has 15 this year and his K rate from his combined 2020 season was over 30%. He's unlikely to be more than a 40 hitter but his athleticism, power/speed combo, and premium defense make him an attractive project for MLB teams. He's also only 20 years old which is significantly younger than his peers. Austin could be a top 5-10 round selection if he continues to perform.
Ernie Yake, Gonzaga, 35+ FV- Yake just hits. He's a career .316 hitter coming into 2021 and he almost never strikes out. He's a skinny athlete with wiry strength and a little physical projection remaining. His barrel control is a plus and his approach is one of the most advanced I've seen in this class. He started to hit for a bit more pop in 2020 but his body and swing don't inspire much confidence that he'll suddenly develop power at the next level. I'm also not sure whether he's a long-term shortstop. He'd likely be at least above average at second or third. Yake gives me some Daniel Descalso vibes and I could see him filling a similar utility role as a pro.
Zach Dezenzo, Ohio State, 35 FV- Dezenzo's profile isn't one I typically gravitate towards. He's a physical 6'4/195 fringe shortstop with serious K issues. He had an encouraging freshman year (758 OPS, 10 homers) at Ohio State showing legit raw power and enough quick-twitch athleticism to stick somewhere on the left side of the infield. 2020 was a different story (.531 OPS, 0 homers, and a 30% K rate) and was basically a lost season. The reports out of the fall were very positive for Dezenzo and he started to show more in-game power and contact ability thanks to a swing change. Sometimes reports like this are just noise, but other times they can be a precursor to a legitimate breakout. Time will tell with Dezenzo and he's someone I'm going to try and get a look at early this spring.
Tommy Sacco, TCU, 35+ FV- Sacco is one of the premier defensive shortstops in college baseball. He's probably a plus defender at the position and that alone usually gets you drafted. His glove is what got him to TCU as a transfer last year, but it's the way he's hit that has put him on my radar. Sacco was a surprise offensive performer for TCU last year, putting up a .901 OPS in 71 plate appearances. He's a switch hitter but looks much better from the right side. It's not the prettiest swing or approach but Sacco is able to make consistent hard contact in games. I watched multiple TCU games last year and Sacco was a treat to watch. He's a grinder who plays the game hard and gets the most out of his physical tools. TCU has several players I'm higher on than others so I will probably get a lot more looks at Sacco this spring. I think he's going to get drafted earlier than many expect because of how special the glove is.
*video credit to TheProspectPipeline
Damon Dues, Wright State, 35+ FV- Dues has been a three-year performer at Wright State and comes into 2021 with a career .310/.459/.438 batting line. As that line suggests, Dues isn't much of a power threat instead relying on an extremely advanced awareness of the strike zone and a patient approach. Dues isn't punchless but he seems content filling a table-setter role for Wright State. He has shown plus raw speed in the past but I'm not sure how it will play as a pro. He's shown the ability to handle velocity in prior viewings and makes pitchers work. Defensively he is better suited for second base than shortstop. His hands, footwork, and instincts are all solid and work well on the dirt. I think Dues gets drafted in the top 10 rounds because of his track record and ability to play the infield. He'll form a talented double-play duo with second baseman Tyler Black in 2021.
Corner Outfield
Henry Zeisler, Chapman (DIII), 35 FV- Zeisler got some added exposure last spring because he just happened to play ball with Nick Garcia who was drafted in the 3rd round by the Pirates last year. He's been a monster performer at Chapman, posting an OPS over 1.000 with more walks than strikeouts (42/37) through 257 career plate appearances. He followed up an insane 2020 campaign (.480/582/940) with a fantastic performance in the Northwoods League. Reports out of there were positive and he'll likely get some more looks this spring because of it. I haven't seen much footage of Zeisler but he's someone I'm going to keep an eye on. For now, I'll write him down as a potential day 3 pick or NDFA signing until more info becomes available.
Cameron Masterman, Louisville, 35 FV- Masterman has been one of my sleepers for a couple of years now. I thought 2020 was going to be the big breakout year but unfortunately, covid happened. He's been blocked by other talented players for most of his time at Louisville but seems to have locked up a starting gig for 2021. Masterman is a corner-only bat with plus raw power and could really mash this year for Louisville. His lack of track record holds me back from ranking or grading him higher, but that could change quickly. He's just an OK athlete and won't provide much defensive value as a pro, though he should be fine in left field or first base. Masterman has a chance to get selected on day two of the draft if he hits well this spring in the ACC.
Kyler Castillo, New Mexico, 35+ FV- I'm not entirely sure where I first heard about Castillo, but someone turned me on to him before the 2020 season. Castillo transferred into New Mexico after an exceptional career at Odessa juco. He isn't flashy by any means but he puts the bat on the ball and finds the barrel often. New Mexico flirted with the idea of trying Castillo out at third base last year but he's settled into a corner outfield role. I haven't seen enough of him defensively to project where he ends up. If third base is a legitimate option for Castillo his draft stock would improve significantly. He's someone I really like and I would be comfortable taking him towards the end of day 2. I think he's likely to go on day 3 as he is currently a corner outfielder without much of a power ceiling. I'll be looking to get some eyes on Castillo (and his new teammate Mack Chambers) early this spring.
Christian Jones, Washington, NG (no grade)- Jones was a high-profile recruit and 31st round pick by the Red Sox in 2016. He was expected to be an instant performer for Washington and a potential middle of the lineup bat. That never materialized. Between inconsistency and a myriad of injuries, Jones just hasn't done much during his college career. He's back to full health as he enters his 5th-year senior season, and will look to make good on his past promise. He's a strong, physical hitter with possibly plus raw power and serious approach and strikeout concerns. He's spent most of his time in right field for the Huskies but may be limited to first base as a pro. I haven't put a grade on Jones yet as I'll need to see him a couple of times to see what he looks like. If Jones is able to finally get his career back on track he could be a top 10 round SR sign with a bit more upside and pedigree than you normally see with those types of picks.
Centerfield
Denzel Clarke, Cal State Northridge, 35 FV- For whatever reason, I was unfamiliar with Clarke heading into the 2021 draft cycle. He was one of the elite performers in the Big West (and all of college baseball) during the shortened 2020 season and had some draft pedigree as well. The native Canadian was a late draft selection by the Mets in 2018 and had a solid freshman season in 2019. He took his game to new heights in 2020 by posting a 1.304 OPS with 3 homers, a 50% extra-base hit %, and 5 steals. Clarke is a phenomenal athlete with a physical build at 6'3/190. He's a natural centerfielder where he uses his plus speed well and displays good instincts. At the plate, Clarke shows emerging power with above-average bat speed and an improving approach. He'll need to cut down on the strikeouts to improve his draft stock further, but Clarke's profile gives him a chance to go early on day 2. His 35 FV grade is more of a placeholder than anything else as I haven't seen much of him to date. Clarke could move into the upper echelon of college outfielders depending on how he looks this spring. He was chosen as D1Baseball's preseason favorite for Big West player of the year.
Matthew Corlew, Chipola JC, 35 FV- Unlike Clarke, Corlew was somebody I was familiar with going into 2021. He was drafted by the Angels in the 23rd round by the Angels but went unsigned. Corlew didn't see a lot of game action in 2020 but he's now Chipola's primary centerfielder. Corlew is lean and lanky at 6'3/195 with a body that can add some muscle. He's a plus athlete with wiry strength and will only be 20 years old on draft day. He's raw as a hitter but shows some skills to build on including solid bat speed that is at least above average. He plays a good centerfield using his plus speed well though he is raw on that side of the ball. Corlew was a two-way player as a prep and his arm could be a plus tool for him in time. Interestingly, Chipola lists Corlew as an OF/3B and he did play third as a prep. I have no idea what he looks like at the hot corner, but that kind of potential versatility is intriguing. Corlew is off to a solid start this year and could work himself into day 2 consideration. The athleticism, projection, and a couple of plus tools give him some sneaky upside and if he continues to hit for Chipola he could move up into the 35+ FV tier. Corlew is committed to Eastern Kentucky for the 2022 season and is one of the top juco hitters in the country.
*video courtesy of PBR's Cayden Hatcher
Parker Bates, Louisiana Tech, 35 FV- If you scout the stat line, you could argue Parker Bates was the best hitter at the D1 level in 2020. He finished the year with a .422/.531/.891 triple slash while manning centerfield for Louisiana Tech. I first heard of Bates following his 2018 season where he was again a strong statistical performer showing some extra-base pop and usable speed in center. He was just OK in 2019 which kind of pushed him out of my mind heading into 2020, but he forced his way back into the draft conversation after last year. There are some red flags here and my experience with players like Bates has been suspect to say the least. Louisiana Tech is a very hitter-friendly environment and though there are some quality arms in Conference USA its's a far cry from some of the more high-profile conferences at the D1 level. He's also 23 and has already reached physical maturity. I'm hoping to get a better look or two of Bates this spring and his 35 FV grade is a placeholder until I see more. Regardless, Bates' power/speed combination and elite statistical performance will likely get him drafted as a statistical flier. He seems suited as a top 10 round senior sign for 2021.
Justice Thompson, North Carolina, 35 FV- Thompson was one of the higher-profile juco transfers to reach the D1 level this year. In a normal draft year, I don't think Thompson reaches campus. Thompson has a lean, physical build with plenty of projection remaining at 6'4/205. Thompson shows raw power at the plate and plenty of speed on the bases and in center. He's locked down the centerfield job and is going to hit in the middle of the order for UNC after an excellent fall showing. If Thompson continues to develop and make good on his raw tools he has top 3-5 round potential. He's another guy that I want to see a little more before ranking higher but the potential is there for 55 raw power, plus speed, and at least average defense in centerfield. Thompson looks like the best centerfield prospect UNC's had since Brian Miller, the 36th overall pick by the Marlins in 2017.
*video credit to Tyler Jennings of ProspectsLive
Gephry Pena, UCF, 35+ FV- Beyond being a legit pro prospect. Pena's backstory is inspiring. He was on my radar a bit after a solid 2020 season, but it was D1baseball's fall report for UCF that put Pena in my crosshairs. Pena comes from the Dominican Republic but wasn't seen much by scouts. He eventually ended up making his way to Florida where he played high school ball at Florida Prep Academy. Pena came to the US unable to speak a word of English and lived with a generous host family while at high school. He received a scholarship from UCF and has worked hard to improve himself both on the field and off the field. He now speaks English fluently, is a phenomenal student, and a legitimate draft prospect. He was completely overmatched as a freshman and according to that fall draft report, Pena could barely hit the ball out of the infield. He's since added almost 30 pounds of muscle and his raw tools are turning into clear baseball skills. Pena profiles as a defensive-minded, table setter at the next level. His power ceiling is going to be a bit limited and he's going to be 22 years old on draft, but the amount of progress Pena has made in such a short time speaks to the kind of talent and makeup this young man has. He's someone I'm going to be rooting for in 2021 and that goes beyond his potential as a draft prospect. I was able to watch him play a bit opening weekend (he looked pretty good) and want to see him a bit more before assigning tool grades. Pena is an impressive and resilient athlete and has a chance to be a day 2 draft prospect this July.
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