Yes, this was supposed to be a November Board. We are now a week into December but good things come to those who wait, right? Hopefully part 2 of my first board of the 2022 draft cycle passes the threshold for being considered "good". Here's a link to my previous piece which covered ranks 50 through 26. The plan is to do one of these every month or so during the spring while expanding things in the process. Last year's board went 500 deep and I think that's how far I'll go once again in 2022. With very little amateur baseball being played over the next several months, I'll probably wait until about the middle or end of January before posting my next board which will be expanded to 100 players. I'm going to be taking draft and board related questions and turning that into either a written piece or perhaps a YouTube video. Feel free to include any questions you may have in the comments below or on twitter. I've also included some 'honorable mentions' at the end of this piece which includes some players who received some consideration for the top 50 and have a strong shot at being included in the top 100. Enjoy!
25. Landon Sims
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Mississippi State
What else is there to say about the season Landon Sims had last spring? His season was historic, plain and simple. It was a real treat watching Sims and Kevin Kopps battle each other for the college closer crown down the stretch last year. Kopps earned the 2021 Golden Spikes award and a 3rd round draft selection (Padres) while Sims won a national championship during his first full season at Mississippi State. The final line for Sims was something you'd expect to see in "Road to the Show", not so much in the SEC. In 56.1 innings his ERA was 1.44, struck out 100 batters, walked 15, gave up less than 5 hits per 9, and allowed just 2 home runs (0.3 HR/9). Sims wasn't strictly a 1 inning closer for the Bulldogs. He went 2 innings or more during 19 of his 29 outings and 3 innings or more 8 times. It's no surprise that Mississippi State plans on moving Sims into the Friday night starter spot after the incredible success he had in multi-inning appearances. Sims certainly has the body, stuff, and determination to transition smoothly and handle a larger workload. He has a good pitcher's frame at 6'2/215 that's physical and mostly filled out. He keeps things tight, with a short stride and compact arm circle. There's some effort as he releases from a ¾ slot but it's manageable. The simple mechanics allow him to repeat at a very high rate which is why the quality of his stuff rarely ever wavers.
Sims will need to develop a third pitch to profile as a starter at the next level. The word is that he's currently working on developing a usable changeup. His other two pitches, a fastball and slider, are clear pluses that complement each other extremely well. The fastball typically ranges between 92-96 MPH (averaging 94+) and Sims can touch the 97-98 range. We should probably expect his fastball velocity to dip (92-94 maybe?) a bit as a starter, but the shape and quality of the pitch may allow it to play at a plus level regardless. Sims gets huge, natural riding life on his high spin fastball (2,400+ RPM) and he is adept at looking it up high. It's both a swing and miss pitch in the zone and out of the zone. He pairs the heater with another plus pitch in his low-to-mid 80s slider. The Sims slider has late, diving movement and 2,600+ RPM spin. You can tell by hitter swings and reactions that the late movement on the slider makes it very hard for hitters to distinguish between the fastball. Both pitches work spectacularly in tandem, giving Sims one of the more consistent two-pitch combos in the draft. Sims should be able to breeze through college ball as a starter on the strength of those two pitchers. Whether that will be enough at the next level is a different story.
I think I'd have Sims in this same spot even if MSU planned on using him in a similar role as the one he had in 2021. There isn't a whole lot of projection necessary here as I don't envision Sims spending much time in the minors as a pro. His ability to provide added value through multi-inning stints makes me comfortable ranking him this high even as a reliever. And there's always an outside chance that Sims shows enough starter traits (holding stuff, third pitch, etc.) to enhance his profile further. Sims receives unanimous praise for his makeup, work ethic, and fiery competitiveness. He's a safe bet to be selected in the 1st round and will be a popular "first to the majors" pick.
24. Logan Tanner
Position: Catcher
School: Mississippi State
Sticking at catcher and hitting for power. Those two skills will get you paid as a college baseball player. Logan Tanner can do both. He has a typical catcher's build at 6'0/220 with plus strength and physicality. Tanner maintains decent agility and athleticism that should work behind the plate. He's maxed out physically but is plenty strong and durable as it is. Tanner looks to do damage at the dish with solid bat speed and the strength to hit the ball out to all fields. He definitely has a power over hit offensive profile. Tanner has recorded impressive exit velos with his aggressive swing and approach. He looks to initiate contact well out in front of the plate for fly ball contact. There's some swing length and inconsistent timing with occasional lunging towards the ball. Yet Tanner still manages to make harder than average contact on his mishits thanks to a consistent bat/barrel path through the zone. He controls the zone well at this level but isn't likely to be a high average/OBP hitter as a pro.
Tanner lacks polish behind the plate but I don't think he's at risk of getting moved off the position as a pro. Tanner's arm behind the plate can be a powerful weapon at times with 60 to 70 grade arm strength. The consistency of his transfers needs some work as it causes his arm to play down. Tanner's receiving also lacks consistency but should be solid average with further experience. He's a willing and able blocker who plays with a good deal of intensity behind the plate. Tanner is a steadying presence for young MSU arms and he's capable of calling his own games. He's universally praised for his leadership mentality and high baseball IQ, two qualities that you love to see from an amateur catching prospect. Tanner is a lock to go in the 1st round if he can duplicate his 2021 season (.287/.382/.525, 15 HR) and could climb into the top half of the 1st round with an even louder performance.
23. Kumar Rocker
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: No School
Rocker was #6 on my final 2021 draft board. He was one of the few players that I accurately mocked last year at 10th overall to the Mets. I don't have much to say about what transpired between Rocker and the Mets. It was an unfortunate turn of events that is hard to wrap your head around. Rocker didn't sign and will now be eligible for the 2022 draft, though he won't be returning to Vanderbilt. There are theories as to what Rocker may do this spring but no clear answers at this moment.
I'm not going to get into Rocker's talent as a pitcher. We know by now what he can do at his best. We know how his stuff has dipped at various stages of his amateur career and the possibility that an underlying injury is to blame. I dropped Rocker down from a 50 FV to a 45 FV because of the aforementioned risks and the fact that he'll be old for the 2022 class. I have him listed as "low variance" in my draft database because I don't see his grade changing in any meaningful way before draft day. I'll steal a phrase from 'The Irishman' and say "it's what it is". Rocker slots in at #23 at this early stage and is all but guaranteed to be passed over by several amateur prospects leading up to draft day. Rocker has late 1st or 2nd round potential but his bonus price tag could complicate things. This is a very unique situation and it's hard to predict how things will eventually play out. The Kumar Rocker saga continues.
22. Peyton Pallette
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Arkansas
It almost feels wrong to have Pallette ranked as the top college righty in the class. I've said elsewhere that the 2022 class is still feeling some of the effects from the 2020 shutdown. Pitchers that were freshman at that time only received a handful of innings meaning we basically have 1 season of viewings/info to go off of. Pallette is in a precarious position because on top of the 2020 shutdown, his 2021 season was limited by injuries. Heading into his third year now at Arkansas, Pallette has just 61.2 innings to his name and a middling state line (3.74 ERA, 70 K, 23 BB, 51 H, 3 HR). Also, he's only completed 5 innings in a start 3 times and reached 6 innings in a start (his max) just once. Pallette was shut down last May with an elbow strain but was able to avoid surgery. He's been working with the team this fall and looks to be on the right track for opening weekend this spring.
Even with a significant amount of questions and risks, Pallette should draw early 1st round interest because of his undeniable athleticism and arm talent. The word that comes up ad nauseam from evaluators when describing Pallette? Electric. It's electric athleticism and arm speed that allows him to do some pretty incredible things with a baseball in his hands. Need an example? Here you go:
Yes, Pallette has one of the highest spinning curveballs on the planet. It's an elite pitch when executed, the definition of a hammer curveball. Pallette also has a high spinning fastball with easy mid 90s velocity and the potential for 97-98 type zip in the future. It projects as a dynamic pitch but will need further development this spring. I also would like to see further usage and improved feel of his changeup, which is thrown too firm and lacks polish.
The quick and easy comp for Pallette is Walker Buehler. The body, operation, and stuff match up well however Buehler was way ahead in terms of polish and overall development as a pitcher at this stage. That kind of upside is here with Pallette and it's why I'm willing to rank him inside my top 25. A strong and healthy spring gets him into the top half of the 1st round.
21. Nazier Mule
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher/Shortstop
School: Passaic County Tech (NJ)
Commitment: Miami
20. Peyton Graham
Position: Third Base/Shortstop
School: Oklahoma
Having Peyton Graham ranked ahead of the sophomore trio of Wallace, Berry, and Susac certainly looks odd. I don't love it either. But I've seen more of Graham to date and because of that I feel more comfortable ranking him higher at this point in time. An early spring reevaluation of this group of 4 will likely lead to a good deal of shuffling. We'll see how things play out.
Let's focus on Graham. What really stands out for me is the immense physical projection remaining in his frame. He's 6'4/185 and is plenty strong already. Further growth to his upper half could turn him into a physical monster. Graham is long and lean with looseness and a good deal of quick twitch athleticism.
Graham has spent most of his collegiate career at third base. He has all the tools necessary to be a plus defender at the hot corner and could get there with more seasoning. Graham has also played some shortstop (including on the Cape) and the reports seem positive. Graham is set to play short for Oklahoma this spring and it's not an impossible fit for him as a pro. The arm may not have the kind of utility needed for the position. His defensive versatility is enhanced further with his play in the outfield this summer. Graham has the actions, footwork, and arm to be an asset in an outfield corner and maybe even in center.
Graham has been great at OU (.942 OPS) but his Cape performance with the stick (98 PA, .247/.367/.370, 2 HR, 11 BB:26 K) was a little underwhelming. His raw power is well above his game power at the moment. Graham looks the part in the box with a sound approach and plate discipline leading to quality swing decisions. There is some hitch to the swing and Graham's long arms present a challenge for his plate coverage. Graham has plus bat speed with a compact stroke that should help him work past his swing concerns. He hits the ball hard already but will need to incorporate some more lift. The hope is that this is remedied significantly as he grows into his frame. There's barrel feel, all fields contact, and he works professional at bats.
Graham will have a full winter to pack on some muscle before the 2022 season. A more filled out Graham could be an absolute offensive force in the Big 12 this spring. With shortstop defense and viable defensive alternatives should that not work, Graham will be a highly sought after prospect early on day 1.
19. Mikey Romero
Position: Shortstop
School: Orange Lutheran (CA)
Commitment: LSU
Romero isn't imposing by any means at 6'0-6'1 and around 175 lbs. But his medium sized build is well proportioned and projectable, suitable for an up the middle defender. He has some wiry strength but will likely need to get stronger as a pro. The bat to ball ability drives the profile. Romero has elite hand eye coordination with loose and twitchy hands that allow him to manipulate the barrel and cover the plate. Even though Romero lacks high end physicality his above average bat speed and natural ability to generate lift means he is able to drive the ball with impact to the gaps. Romero has shown excellent feel for the strike zone and he's performed against quality arms this summer and fall. Romero shined at WWBA in October and batted .500 during the tournament. Romero showed good controlled aggression as he looked to smoke the ball early in counts. I think this bodes well for his future at the plate and I'm comfortable projecting above average raw power. As mentioned before, Romero has the look of a middle infielder as a pro. He's bouncy and smooth with above average range and instincts at shortstop. His hands and feet both work on the dirt but his arm lags a bit behind. The arm strength isn't quite average but the arm works efficiently giving it good utility. The lack of arm strength could push him off the position or he could lose some foot speed as he matures. Romero could give centerfield a try if shortstop doesn't work and he'd obviously be a good fit at the keystone. This type of profile (smaller build, contact, sneaky pop, MIF defense) has proven to be attractive to pro teams on draft day. Romero fits in the mid-to-late day 1 range. He'll face good high school competition this spring at Orange Lutheran which could help boost his stock.
18. Hayden Dunhurst
Position: Catcher
School: Ole Miss
Of the four college catchers I have ranked in the top 50, Dunhurst is far and away the best defender. Dunhurst is a near certainty to be a pro catcher and he has a strong chance to provide significant defensive value there. Dunhurst is very physical at 5'11/220 with a thick and durable build. He maintains good lower half athleticism to suit him behind the plate. He's plenty strong but there could be strength gains with some firming up of his build. Dunhurst has 70 grade arm strength and is average to plus in the many other facets of catching. Dunhurst has a well rounded profile but his offensive game is not as polished as his defensive chops. He performed well in 2020 and was off to a great start in 2021. Dunhurst was batting .338 with 5 bombs at the start of May but labored the rest of the way, ending with a .280 average, .821 OPS, and 7 homers. Dunhurst's approach seemed to get out of whack the last month plus. The swing got longer as he tried to force pull side power which SEC pitching exploited. Dunhurst does have plus raw power, but he's better served working his swing up the middle or to the gaps. He has enough physical strength and bat speed for average game power as long as the approach holds up. Dunhurst has good plate discipline and limits his whiffs. His best bet to tap into that power is by putting himself in good situations and counts. Dunhurst projects as an average bat across the board at the next level. That may not sound all that exciting, but there aren't too many average hitters with enough defensive ability to stick at catcher. The defensive skills at catcher will give Dunhurst a strong draft floor to build on. He's a late first rounder with a moderate junior year production boost but could shoot higher (think Shea Langeliers) if he shows double digit pop this spring.
17. Brock Jones
Position: Outfield
School: Stanford
2021 was the first year in which Jones focused solely on baseball. Before that, Jones spent time on Stanford’s football team as a safety. He has the high level athleticism and elite physicality you’d expect from a college football player. He has a strong, compact frame at 6’0/205. Jones is extremely muscular with strength distributed throughout his mature build. There’s some twitch to his actions but Jones is tightly wound and lacks looseness on the diamond.
Jones was a monster performer at various points during the 2021 season including a loud showing during super regionals and the College World Series. Jones slugged 5 longballs and had 3 multi-hit games over his final 5 games against Texas Tech (x2), NC State, Arizona, and Vanderbilt. The Stanford star finished the year with 18 homers, 14 steals, and an OPS over 1.000. When I first began to construct this board I had Jones inside the top 10. I think I let Jones’ explosive final stretch weigh too heavily. The easy plus power that Jones generates is obvious. He’s able to drive the ball a long way to any field and he’s found a sweet spot in the right-center gap. Jones keeps things short and simple from a wide stance and minimal load. He has the power and strength to do damage at any moment and in any count. But Jones has some holes in his swing and his approach. He doesn’t always cover the outside portion of the plate and his swing decisions are raw overall. There’s significant whiff potential moving forward and he struck out 59 times (about 22%) in 2021. His struggles were on display this summer with Team USA. I was originally on board with waiving some of that rawness away because of his two sport background. I decided that it’s better to wait and see if he can show growth as a hitter this spring before moving him up further.
Jones moves really well considering his build and has straight line speed that grades plus. He’s closer to an above average runner in game and that could drop further as he ages. Jones split time between left field and centerfield last spring. There are centerfield type tools but his lack of polish holds things back a bit. That should improve with more reps but he may end up lacking the range necessary for the position if the foot speed declines. Right field won’t be an option because his arm is average at best which means left field would be the final landing spot. I think it’s too early to determine where he ultimately ends up. But he’ll need to take a step forward defensively this spring to profile in center long term. Jones receives high marks for his intangibles and ability to lead a clubhouse. With his power and speed he’s able to impact the game in dynamic ways.
16. Jud Fabian
Position: Outfield
School: Florida
As with Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian was drafted (Red Sox, 2nd round) but not signed in 2021 Unlike Rocker, Fabian will return to his college team (Florida) for the 2022 season. Fabian was #22 on my final '21 board, and the 5th ranked college bat. Here's what I had to say about Fabian just prior to the draft: I haven’t abandoned the Jud Fabian ship just yet. There are way too many raw tools here to just dismiss him in the way people dismissed Jeren Kendall. Fabian’s swing is geared in a way that isn’t going to be conducive to consistent batted ball ability. That is true for many successful MLB players so the fact that Fabian is expected to strike out at a high rate isn’t the death sentence many people expect it to be. He’s perfectly capable of spitting on pitches out of the zone at a fairly high rate compared to his peers. He’s a disciplined hitter which was the complete opposite of what Jeren Kendall is/was. The quality of his contact is going to dictate his overall value as a hitter. He might have 70 raw power and he’s certainly shown the ability to generate huge exit velos at optimal angles leading to big home run totals. If you believe he’s going to be a 30+ HR hitter capable of racking up walks you can live with high K totals. Then you need to add the defense to the equation which is another quality tool. He’s either above average in center or possibly plus." Fabian's FV grade remains the same at 45. He was young for the class last year but is closer to the older side (though he'll still be under 22 on draft day) for the '22 college draft class. I don't expect his grade to change even if he builds on the season he had last year. Because of that, Fabian is likely to get passed by other players as the spring progresses. Expect Fabian to slot in somewhere towards the back of round 1 or the middle of round 2.
15. Cole Young
Position: Shortstop
School: North Allegheny (PA)
Commitment: Duke
Cole Young is the type of amateur prospect that I tend to gravitate towards. Sometimes that doesn't work to my benefit but nonetheless Young fits the mold. Small, hitterish, middle infielders are definitely my bag. Young's profile shares some similarities to Mikey Romero who I talked about earlier. Young has an average, mostly maxed out frame at 5'11/180. He's a plus athlete with looseness and plenty of quick twitch. What I love about Young as a hitter is how consistent his approach is. The swing stays the same from game to game and at bat to at bat. The swing doesn't get too big and Young rarely expands his zone which is why he's able to limit the empty swings and generate sound contact. There's a great deal of polish and professionalism that goes into each plate appearance. Young shows excellent barrel control and whip leading to gap to gap line drive type contact. He's able to generate occasional lift but there's limited power, though he is far from punchless and can impact the ball on contact. Young shows well defensively and has developed into a solid shortstop. There were questions about whether he was a future shortstop early in the summer but he answered them over the last several months. Young has great instincts and quick reactions that allow him to cover plenty of ground at the shortstop position. He has quick and soft hands with a solid average arm. Young is also a plus runner and should provide value on the basepaths at the next level. It's a well rounded profile for the Pennsylvania prep and he's performed against quality pitching. Like with Romero, this type of profile tends to outperform industry expectations on draft day. Young is older for the prep class but still projects as a day 1 target for teams this summer.
14. Brock Porter
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Orchard Lake St. Mary's (MI)
Commitment: Clemson
There are some similarities between Porter and Dylan Lesko, who I have ranked 9 spots higher. Both Porter and Lesko feature MLB quality fastballs (Porter's been up to 98 MPH) with elite level changeups. Both have the ability to create spin but have yet to fully harness that ability for consistent results. Breaking ball development and consistency are sure to be areas of focus for scouts when evaluating Porter this spring.
Porter is an excellent on mound athlete with the kind of body and explosion seen in many of the best pitchers in the game. He's older for the class (he will be 19 on draft day) but is still projectable physically at 6'4/200. He throws from a high ¾ slot with lightning quick arm speed. It's an active and energized delivery that requires considerable effort through release. There could be repeatability and arm path issues in the future but that hasn't been a major problem to date. Porter repeats well and he gets extended and works downhill consistently. There's more control than command, but he's shown improvement in that regard over the past year.
Porter's profile is both exciting and risky. Being a prep righty certainly enhances the risk portion for Porter. But opportunities for teams to acquire talent with this kind of potential is rare. Porter could go anywhere in the 1st round and is part of the conversation for top high school pitcher in the class.
13. Brandon Barriera
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: American Heritage (FL)
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Brandon Barriera was another pitcher who really ‘wowed’ me at the Perfect Game All-American Classic. His fastball command was erratic but his athleticism on the mound and the movement he got on 3 distinct pitches was really impressive. Barriera is likely to get dinged by some (not me) for his lack of height (6’1) and somewhat narrow frame. For me, he more than makes up for it with wiry strength, long limbs, and the remaining strength that can be added moving forward. And more than anything it’s the athleticism and twitch on the mound that drives his profile as a prospect. He’s such a loose and fluid athlete who gets his entire body working well in his motion. There is plus arm speed with a clean, repeatable action and a ¾ release. There can be some inconsistencies with the arm action but that should improve quickly in the pros. He does an excellent job syncing things up and releasing on time even when his arm motion varies. Barriera extends well on the mound, remains balanced, and throws with minimal effort or stress.
The mound athleticism is exciting on its own, but what sets Barriera apart from other prep lefties is the quality of his stuff. Barriera already has a full 4 pitch mix that all project above average or better in the pros. His weakest pitch might actually be his fastball which doesn’t currently have the type of shape that leads to whiffs at the next level. It’s not a foregone conclusion that this will dramatically improve as a pro, but with his athleticism and body control I’d bet on him being able to develop the pitch further. I have the pitch at a 45 currently so it’s not a “bad” pitch by any means. Barriera can touch 95-96 and I really like how consistent his velocity is as he rarely ever dips below 91-94. The movement can be explosive with darting life to both sides of the plate. Barriera can get the pitch to play in all 4 quadrants but seems to have a better feel of it when working east-west rather than north-south. Barriera can ride the fastball, sink it, and cut it with lots of late movement. His spin rates are very solid but the fastball would benefit from less side spin to give it more bat missing shape. With the late and heavy movement on the fastball it’s a pitch that should be hard for batters to square at the next level. With some improvements and more top end velo 93-96, Barriera’s fastball projects as an above average pro pitch.
All three of his secondaries are of good quality. His most consistent offspeed pitch might actually be his changeup. I don’t think it will ultimately be his best pitch but it’s the one that he seems to have working at a solid level from outing to outing. Barriera’s changeup is in the mid 80s and he really kills spin on the pitch which leads to heavy fading action. His ability to mimic the arm speed on the changeup with his fastball means the pitch can be a useful weapon against both righties and lefties, though it’s definitely more effective against RHB. He has two breaking balls and the slider has the potential to be a big whiff generator. He tunnels it well and gets tight spin leading to late and deceptive horizontal movement. It’s currently a low 80s pitch with spin rates in the 2,600s. The pitch can certainly get better with further command and velocity, but it’s already a solid average offering. It’s not as consistent as the changeup but it has all the components of a future plus pitch. Barriera also has a curveball that projects well. It’s probably his 4th pitch but it has above average potential. Barriera’s curveball gets good vertical depth and sits in a slightly lower velocity band which makes it distinct from the other pitches in his repertoire. It’s another pitch that he can add to the mix to keep hitters off balance.
Barriera has a shot to be the first prep arm off the board this summer. He has advanced starter-type traits with pitchability and polish. Barriera trusts all 4 of his quality pitches and projects to command them at an above average level as a pro. I think this is my favorite prep arm in the class. Don’t be surprised if he works his way inside the top 10 on one of my future boards.
12. Bryce Hubbart
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: Florida State
Earlier drafts of this piece had Hubbart firmly ranked inside the top 10. I considered moving him down to 15th overall after hearing some less than stellar developments this fall. 12th overall felt like a good compromise. You would be hard pressed to find a scout who didn't think Hubbart was the best pitcher this year on the Cape. Hubbart finished his summer campaign with an ERA of 0.87 over 31 innings with 45 K: 8 BB and just 14 hits allowed. Absolutely dominant but will it continue?
Hubbart was throwing a bit harder this summer with a fastball more consistently in the low 90s and touching 94 MPH. He sat more comfortably in the 87-91 range during the spring. The pitch plays up with excellent back spinning life and feel for locating it at the top of the zone. It's a quality pitch with lower velocity but has plus potential when thrown harder. Unfortunately, Hubbart was back down to the 88-90 range this fall. There is plenty of time for him to get back to his CCBL level but his ultimate ceiling will be determined by what his fastball looks like this spring.
The other elements to Hubbart's game are well established. You could write a full article solely on his ability to create and harness spin. He has two distinct breaking balls with a slider and curveball but in reality he can manipulate his breaking ball in countless ways to suit his needs. On top of that he commands his breakers at will with pro level pitchability and confidence.
Hubbart has a fairly ordinary build at around 6'0-6'1 and 190 lbs. He's a plus athlete with some potential to add strength. His delivery is unique and funky. He repeated his mechanics at a high rate this summer and works up tempo with a longer arm action. Hubbart hides the ball well and his operation is very deceptive which ticks his stuff up a notch or two. This is an interesting case as we've seen other college lefties with this kind of profile do well on draft day. The profile is attractive and relatively "safe" but Hubbart also has the chance to project much higher as a pro with more velocity. There's a non-zero chance that Hubbart climbs his way inside the top 5 or so picks this summer.
11. Robert Moore
Position: Second Base
School: Arkansas
You don't earn the moniker 'Big Hit Bob' without providing some thunder with the bat. At 5'9/170, Robert Moore doesn't look like a major threat in a deep Arkansas lineup, and maybe that's why he was able to ambush pitchers last spring en route to a 16 HR spring. Moore is the son of longtime Royals executive (and current president) Dayton Moore. Robert has the kind of maturity and baseball IQ we've come to expect from young prospects who have been around the highest levels of the sport. Moore enrolled at Arkansas early which means he will be about a year younger (turns 20 in March) than your typical 3rd year college player. He has an undersized and compact from but with some good upper body strength. He makes up for his smaller stature with well above average athleticism, excellent twitch, and a high motor that allows him to do everything on the diamond with energy. He has a flair for the dramatic (hence the 'Big Hit Bob' nickname) and gets the most out of his tools through his work ethic and knowledge of the game. The power explosion was a big surprise. Moore, who is a switch hitter, showed an excellent ability to rotate and turn on inside fastballs. Combined with his natural loft, this led to shocking pull side power as a lefty. The swing is more contact oriented from the right side. Moore didn't show that same kind of power with wood bats over the summer with Team USA and his exit velos are fairly average overall. Moore has double digit HR potential as a pro but is unlikely to be a major power threat. Moore works counts and should draw a healthy amount of walks at the next level. His whiff and K rate were unexpectedly high given his swing, offensive tools, and quality approach. I think opponents (especially SEC arms) are going to test his plate coverage this time around and work the outer portion of the zone. We'll see how he adjusts but all indications point to him being able to adapt the approach. Moore was a pretty solid shortstop as a prep but barely played the position for the Razorbacks. He's unlikely to receive many opportunities in 2022 as teammate Jalen Battles is a special defender at short. Moore is a smart defensive player with plus action and excellent hands. His above average speed plays better on the defensive end and he'll show plus range at second base as a result. It would not be surprising to me if Moore was given an opportunity to play short in pro ball. His below average arm strength may hold him back, though his arm tends to play up with a quick release and twitchy actions. Moore's poise and polish aid his overall game and allows him to outperform more physical amateur prospects. He's a favorite in the industry, among scouts, and the fans in Fayetteville. Another strong season in the SEC will cement his spot as a day 1 selection.
10. Carter Young
Position: Shortstop
School: Vanderbilt
Carter Young was a hard player to rank for me. He has legitimate 1-1 potential and looked the part of a very early draft pick during portions of the 2021 season. Young also struck out way too much and actually eclipsed Jud Fabian's K% (30% for Young, 29% for Fabian) by season's end. There is good reason for optimism that Young makes considerable progress in the contact department in 2022. Young dealt with shoulder issues about halfway through the '21 season and ended up having surgery following the conclusion of Vanderbilt's spring campaign. You can look back at Young's game log and see that the uptick in whiffs coincided with his shoulder problems. The hope is that a healthy Carter Young reduces his swing and miss while showing the same surprising power that he showcased last spring. Young was a skinny, projectable bat as a prep with advanced defensive instincts on the dirt. He held his own during the shortened 2020 season as Vandy's everyday shortstop (not an easy task for a freshman) and blossomed physically heading into 2021. Young maintained his above average defensive ability at short while also becoming a major power threat as evidenced by his 16 homers and an extra base hit percentage (XBH%) of 60%. When I watched him last spring, Young still looked like he had some potential physical growth in his lean and athletic build. He's a switch hitter with quick hands, plus bat speed, and serious barrel whip through the zone. He's a better hitter from the left side where he shows better balance. The swing features considerable loft and vertical angle which allows him to get the most out of his above average power on contact. This swing path also leads to empty swings on pitches in the zone, especially up. I do expect improvement in that area moving forward for Young but strikeouts are likely a long term feature of his offensive game. There is 20+ HR upside as a pro with steady and dependable defense at short. Players with that kind of profile tend to have solid careers as evidenced by guys like Freddy Galvis, Dansby Swanson, and Willy Adames.
9. Kevin Parada
Position: Catcher
School: Georgia Tech
Parada was my 6th ranked catcher and 61st overall player for the 2020 draft. It became apparent shortly after the draft that I had Parada too low. In my defense, 2020 was an incredibly scuffed draft cycle that severely limited everyone's ability to see players and gather info. Parada was an older California backstop with an advanced bat and questionable defense behind the plate. I had Tyler Soderstrom as a better bet to stick at catcher back in 2020 and I think that's mostly held up. I've been relying heavily on industry reports of Parada's defense behind the plate and the overwhelming theme is inconsistency. It's important to remember that Parada was a freshman in 2021 and had almost his entire senior year of high school wiped out by the pandemic. Nevertheless, Parada was a day 1 starter for a Georgia Tech team with postseason ambitions and several pro level arms. Not an easy task. Parada has a good catcher's body at 6'1/200 with more athleticism than your typical catcher. Reports have indicated that his receiving is usually well below average but he can flash soft and steady hands at times. Parada has plus arm strength but the arm plays below that. He moves well behind the plate and is regarded as a quality blocker with a strong work ethic. Parada will have the opportunity to show growth as a catcher this spring. Time remains on his side as he won't turn 21 until August. If he needs to move off the position, both third base and corner outfield could be viable long term alternatives. Parada has a bat first catcher profile and his freshman year in 2021 was a major success. He had a final batting line of .318/.379/.550 with 9 HR, 17 BB, 41 K, and a 44% XBH% in 243 PA. What's impressive with Parada's swing is how little wasted movement there is. There are few moving parts with a short and simple stride and an average leg lift. Parada shows plus raw power and is especially good at using his significant lower half strength to generate explosive low ball pop. Parada can really back spin the ball and his best swings feature very good hip to shoulder separation for maximum impact. He's shown the ability to handle velocity and spin thanks to a mature approach. Most of his game power goes to his pull side but he's shown to be capable of line drive contact to the opposite field. There was a surprising amount of in zone swing and miss last year and his batted ball profile was just OK. That feels like nitpicking at this point as it's pretty rare for a freshman catcher in a power conference to perform the way he did for a full season. He was solid during the summer and hit .400 with Team USA. I remain confident that the bat is going to play regardless of where Parada profiles on the defensive spectrum. He isn't necessarily limited to first base as a fallback option which gives Parada a better plan B than most other amateur catchers. He'll be an early first rounder with further clarity on defense but is unlikely to drop past the 1-2 round range regardless.
8. Jace Jung
My first real introduction to the Jace Jung experience was in early April when Jung and Texas Tech took on TCU for some BIG 12 action. I was mostly focused on watching talented TCU lefty Russell Smith (Brewers, 2nd round) go to work against one of his toughest challenges of the season against Texas Tech. Smith cruised through 3 innings before surrendering a mammoth homer to Jung in the 4th inning. My jaw literally dropped as I watched the ball carry far beyond the right field wall. Down 0-2 in the count, Jung was caught off balance on a low breaking ball but was able to golf the ball deep to his pull side. Two days later, Jung homered three times in a single game against TCU. That would be Jung's 2nd three home run game of the month. He finished the year with 21 homers in his first full season with the Red Raiders. Jung's setup is unorthodox to say the least. He holds the bat at a unusual angle from a deep hand position and utilizes a slight bat waggle. The hands move extremely quickly with explosive bat speed. The swing path is long through the zone which allows him to cover the plate from a good plane. The hips open up swiftly and early but he maintains good control of his body as he gets the front foot down and finishes the tail end of his swing. It's certainly an aggressive hack but it's one that Jung seems to have mastered. He's able to hit with plus power to all fields and is very hard to beat with velocity. He has a pretty good batting eye and his approach is mature with the way he'll shorten up the swing when behind in counts. Jung's swing can make him vulnerable to quality offspeed which is an area that will be tested more regularly in pro ball. The bat still projects well with the chance for a better than average hit tool and plus power. Jung isn't likely to provide much value on the defensive side of the ball. He's a good athlete but isn't particularly twitchy. He's a no-frills type defender at second base with good instincts and reactions but minimal range. Jung has also played some third base but might not have the arm necessary for the position. He projects as a below average defender at both spots but a pro club might be able to get more out of him through positioning and shifting. Jace is a bat first prospect with a career OPS of 1.135 OPS heading into 2022. He has a chance to be selected earlier than his brother Josh who went 8th overall to the Rangers in 2019.
7. Druw Jones
Position: Outfield
School: Wesleyan (GA)
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Slots 2-7 went through several permutations before I finally decided on this current ranking. This is a very tight group for me. You think Jones deserves to be #2? #4? I won't argue with you. For now Druw Jones, the son of legendary centerfielder Andruw Jones ranks 7th on my board. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree with Druw. He's an explosive athlete that projects to be a special defender in center. The defensive instincts are beyond his years as Jones glides to the ball and makes patrolling center look easy. He has all the tools to be an impact defender in center with a plus arm to complete the package. There have been some inconsistent run times over the last several months but he's typically been a plus runner. Jones has also occasionally taken grounders at shortstop during I/O and doesn't look out of place doing so. It's not completely crazy to think a team could give him a shot there, though that's harder to do with Jones already profiling so well in center. As a hitter, Jones has a low effort swing and efficient movements in the box. His measurables, including hand speed, bat speed, and rotational acceleration are all top of the scale. Jones makes a lot of hard contact and well above average bat-to-ball skills. What's impressive about Jones is how hard he can impact the ball while still being exceptionally projectable at 6'3/180. Nearly all of his power plays up the middle and the opposite way. There is significant raw power potential but he'll need to improve the quality of his batted balls. Jones struggles to get the ball in the air consistently and doesn't have swing mechanics that are conducive to pull side contact. With added strength and further refinement to the swing, Jones could have plus game power at the next level. Jones could go 1st overall if he shows more consistency with the bat this spring.
6. Brooks Lee
Position: Shortstop
School: Cal Poly
It's hard to match the bloodlines of someone like Druw Jones, but Brooks Lee clearly comes from a baseball family. His father Larry coaches Brooks at Cal Poly and has been the head coach at the program for nearly 20 years. Brooks also had an uncle, Terry, who was drafted in the 1st round by the Giants in the '70s. Ironically enough, Brooks was also drafted by the Giants in the 35th round back in 2019 but chose not to sign. Lee's baseball background aids him on the field with his maturity and feel. It also helps that he's a highly intelligent player and a student of the game. It's not all intangibles for Lee. He has top of the scale physicality I'm his tall 6'2/205 frame. He has huge upper body strength and enough athleticism to allow him to do things smoothly and cleanly on the field. Lee is a switch hitter but the swing works better from the left side. It's not the most visually pleasing swing but he's had no problem making it with in games. The numbers at Cal Poly can get a little inflated because of the offensive environment but Lee was even better on the Cape (.405/.432/.667) this summer. Lee has excellent hand speed and hand strength and his ability to consistently get good wood (or metal) on the ball feels ingrained. The hand-eye and instincts make up for most of the swing concerns for me at this point. Lee will chase out of the zone but he also shows a mature approach with the ability to make in bat adjustments and shorten up when he needs to. Lee may not walk at a high rate but there is potential for better than average tools with the hit and power. I'm mostly on board with the bat however there are a couple of things I'm less bullish on. First and foremost would be his defense. Lee is a perfectly fine college shortstop and he's capable of making the plays at that level. He doesn't have your typical shortstop build and his foot speed is fringy at best. His hands are great and his arm is more than enough for the position, but his range is a big question. He's definitely an infielder and I think he's capable of playing a really solid third base in the pros. I don't see a future shortstop. Another element that has me wary is Lee's injury history. He dealt with injuries during high school and then had a pretty serious (albeit fluky) knee/hamstring injury that required surgery. That injury sidelined him for nearly all of the shortened 2020 season. It's not fair to put the injury prone label on Lee this soon but the health aspect needs to be monitored. How his previous lower body injuries affect his movement and defense down the road remains to be seen. It's funny because I consider myself a bit lower on Lee than consensus yet here he is at 6th overall anyway. There aren't many likely scenarios where he lasts beyond the top half of the 1st round.
5. Dylan Lesko
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Buford (GA)
Commitment: Vanderbilt
This is higher than I'd like to rank a high school arm. There's a very strong chance Lesko ends up closer to 10th (or lower) by the time spring baseball gets going. But at this stage I'm prioritizing players with MLB tools and a track record of success. Lesko's track record is extraordinary. He's been a high-level pitching prospect for years, dominating year-round at showcases, tournaments, and at his high school in Georgia. Lesko is another prep arm with a picturesque pitcher's build at 6'3/195. The build, strength, and athleticism all point to a long career throwing baseballs. The mechanics on the mound are simple and repeatable with controlled actions. Lesko moves his lower half well and does a good rotating his hips to generate power down the mound. There's plus level arm speed and with a high ¾ slot.
The fastball is a likely plus pitch. Lesko has run it up to the 97-98 MPH range, can sit 94-96 early in starts, and will range between 92-96. The velocity comes easy thanks to his low effort operation. He shows the ability to command to both sides of the plate with a solid downhill plane. Lesko can locate to the top of the zone effectively and there's late tail and some sink on the pitch. His best secondary is a nasty changeup that projects to be an elite weapon. With velocity in the 82-85 range, Lesko's changeup drops off the table with hard sink. The feel and confidence for the changeup is obvious and it's a dependable weapon against both righties and lefties. It's a 60-70 grade pitch. Lesko's breaking ball consistency is not nearly on the same level as his fastball/changeup. But Lesko does have two different breaking balls that flash above average. I like the curveball better than the slider. There's 11-5 or 12-6 shape with low 80s velocity and spin in the 2,600-2,700 range. The slider is a pitch he started using more this past year and is thrown in the mid 80s. Both breakers are inconsistent and may never become true plus pitches. But they each have potential and evaluators like the growth he's shown with his feel for spin.
Lesko is polished and has the chance for a true 4 pitch mix. The fastball and changeup will carry the profile but the growth of Lesko's breakers will determine his draft position. With quality strikes and the pitchability to match, Lesko is likely to be drafted early enough to forgo his Vanderbilt commitment.
4. Chase DeLauter
Position: Outfield
School: James Madison
Full disclosure, I didn't see DeLauter play at James Madison the past two years. Opportunities were scarce as he only played in 42 games because of the pandemic. I considered separating DeLauter in a similar fashion as I did with Gavin Cross and Zach Neto with the plan being that I would rank him shortly after the 2022 season started. But there was enough quality footage from the summer and the reports during that time frame were universal in their glowing praise. I had DeLauter ranked in the 45 FV tier originally as a way to sort of hedge my bets. But as I lined things up and finalized things, DeLauter's ranking looked out of place. After combing over all the available video, scouting reports, and data I decided that DeLauter needed to be in the top 5. I settled on 4th overall and even that may be too low.
DeLauter has all the elements to be an impact, middle of the order type bat at the pro level. He's big and strong at 6'4/230 with excellent core strength and high end athleticism. DeLauter has good plate discipline and maintained quality contact rates on the Cape. He also had consistently high exit velos that suggjest 60-70 grade power as a pro. He profiles very well in right field but there's at least some optimism that DeLauter could make centerfield work in the pros at least initially.
I'm not going to go too in detail on DeLauter here as I'd like to see him play this spring. I encourage you all to check out my colleague Will Hoefer who wrote about DeLauter after seeing him this summer. Also, you can see where the staff at Prospects Live thinks DeLauter ought to rank by checking out their top 200 list. You won't have to scroll far to find his name on the list.
3. Elijah Green
Position: Outfield
School: IMG Academy (FL)
Commitment: Miami
Outside of Kumar Rocker, Elijah Green is the most “famous” player in the 2022 draft. You are likely to find him at the top spot on a lot of rankings and boards. While my Termarr Johnson conviction remains strong, there are good arguments that can be made for Green as the best prospect in this class.
A lot of people focus a bit too much on terms like “ceiling” and “floor” instead of assessing individual parts or elements of a player. I’m certainly guilty of this and I’m going to be guilty of it here. Elijah Green has a very, very high ceiling. Green is one of those players that stands out physically from just about every other player he shares the field with. If you play the game “find the prospect” where you or someone else goes to a game without any info on the players on the field, there’s a high probability that Green would be the player that people identify as the “prospect” based on what he looks like in the uniform alone. He stands at a lean 6’3/225 with a high waist and long limbs. Green already possesses an intimidating presence in the box and he can do big damage at a moment’s notice. The fact that he still has obvious and significant growth potential from a physical standpoint is remarkable considering how strong he is already. Green combines that strength with superb athleticism, the kind that is more typical on a football field or basketball court. He’s turned in elite run times both at games and showcases (6.16, 60-yard dash at Perfect Game National) and comfortably projects as a plus runner moving forward, perhaps even better than that. This is the highest level of athlete with the kind of physical tools that don’t come around very often. I have yet to see a report on his defense in centerfield that was negative and he looks to project there long term. Green also has an easy plus arm, giving him 4 tools that are clearly plus or better. The power comes easy and might reach the double-plus level in the near term. What’s impressive about Green’s power is that he isn’t a big hacker at the plate. It’s a lower effort, grounded swing with a shorter leg kick. Green is able to remain quick to the ball despite his long limbs with electric hand and bat speed. His hands work incredibly well and when you combine that with his ability to manipulate the bat you get solid plate coverage. Green has some natural loft in the swing and he’s able to lift the ball down in the zone with backspin. He’s capable of hitting balls hard and for long distances even when he doesn’t get his best swing on the ball.
I’m sure most of you are aware of Green’s one potential flaw. He strikes out. It’s important to note that not all strikeouts are equal. I’d be interested to see what Green’s chase rates are because outside of some mild chasing of breaking balls down in the zone I haven’t seen him expand the zone excessively during the broadcasts/streams I’ve watched. He’s not as patient as someone like Termarr Johnson, but Green has an actual approach and is willing to take a walk. Green also didn’t swing and miss at an absurd rate at Perfect Game events. If he was chasing and whiffing at absurd levels, I’d be more concerned with the strikeout totals, but I think there’s a good chance the strikeouts end up being manageable. Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see Green compete at WWBA in Jupiter this October which would have been a nice, final sample of games before the spring. Green plays at high school powerhouse IMG Academy in Florida which means he’ll still face some quality arms in 2022. This should give scouts and evaluators in Florida some useful live looks to add to the scouting report. Barring injury or some other freak occurrence, Green will remain a 1-1 draft candidate and it’s unlikely he lasts past pick #10.
2. Cam Collier
Position: Third Base
School: Chipola College
Commitment: Louisville
I wrote about Cam Collier in October HERE. Collier is the son of former major leaguer Lou Collier. Cam was originally a 2023 grad but reclassified and made himself eligible for the 2022 draft. On top of that, he decided to pass on playing high school ball this spring and will instead face quality junior college competition at Chipola College. Collier is the full package with an advanced approach, a smooth left-handed swing, hard contact, projectable power, and plenty of defensive ability at third. There are some concerns with how his body will age. Collier's lower half is quite thick and if he slows down too much it could make it hard for him to stick at third base long term.
Collier at #2 may be considered a tab too rich but my reasoning for Collier's high ranking mirrors my reasoning for having Termarr Johnson at #1. I believe in Collier's bat and the performance and measurables back up that belief. With that said, I don't think Collier's lock on the #2 slot is secure and there's a good chance that a few college bats will surpass him by the time the 2022 draft is here. We still have to wait months before college baseball even starts, so for now Collier sits at 2. Collier will be one of the youngest players available in the 2022 draft class (he just turned 17). It’s hard to see Collier going any later than round 1 at this point. He’s committed to Louisville for 2023.
1. Termarr Johnson
Position: Shortstop/Second Base
School: Mays (GA)
Commitment: Uncommitted
The top spot for the 2022 MLB draft is very much up for debate. You’ll likely see names like Elijah Green, Brooks Lee, Chase DeLauter, and maybe one or two others at the top of some boards. I think you can make arguments for all of those players and I definitely considered each one of them when slotting players on my board. But Termarr Johnson is in a tier of his own for me and unless someone does something crazy this spring, Johnson is likely to remain at the top. I realize that his odds of remaining at shortstop are low and that future second basemen aren’t typical 1-1 draft targets. I realize that Johnson doesn’t have the body type/physical traits of most of the other players behind him on the board. I get it, I really do. But Johnson does something that is kind of important in the game of baseball . . . he hits. His track record of hitting against quality competition and at high-profile events is extremely long. There are no signs of slowing down.
I first saw Termarr Johnson while watching a stream of Baseball Factory’s All-Star Classic back in October of 2020. You can actually watch the game in full HERE. That game was filled to the brim with elite 2021 grads, many of whom ended up being early 2021 draft picks. Johnson and Elijah Green were the only 2022 grads to make the squad. I knew Green, I wasn’t really familiar with Johnson. I didn’t pay much attention to him because I was focused on the 2021 eligible guys, but I made note of the fact that he was sharing the field (and looking comfortable doing so) with older players. As the 2021 summer progressed, I realized just how special Johnson was with a bat in his hands.
Let’s get the physical part out of the way. Johnson has a short and stocky build (5’9/180) with a thick lower half and strength distributed throughout his body. He’s not ultra-twitchy but is a quality athlete that has shown good movements and plenty of foot speed. Johnson ran a 6.65/60-yard dash at the Perfect National Showcase which roughly translates to plus speed. Johnson shows a lot of quality physical/athletic ability despite his size, but this isn’t the type of build that is going to stand out.
Johnson flips the script once you put a bat in his hands because all he does is stand out at the plate. One of the first things you’ll notice is the pitch recognition and approach. You can clearly see that he’s identifying pitches early which enables him to make quality swing decisions and control the strike zone. Johnson is in control of each of his at-bats and doesn’t take any pitches off. He’s willing to swing early in at-bats if he gets a pitch he knows he can drive, but Johnson will also show patience and has no problem hitting with two strikes. Johnson makes pitchers work and he’ll spit on tough chase pitches while fouling off well-located pitches in the zone. Johnson has the makings of an OBP machine and looks to be the type of hitter that drives pitchers mad by inflating pitch counts. When he swings it’s with tremendous bat speed and rotational acceleration which allows him to make very hard contact despite his size. The swing has some violence to it, but it’s controlled, and because of how early he can ID pitches he’s able to consistently square up pitches. Call it controlled violence. His barrel feel and awareness are top-notch as is his ability to cover all areas of the strike zone. All of this is backed up by data and his performance to date. His Blast Motion and Diamond Kinetics numbers are elite and his batted ball data is solid, too. Johnson’s consistency with the bat from AB to AB, game to game, and event to event is well documented and another feather in his cap. His numbers at Perfect Game events are absolutely bonkers. On Johnson’s PG profile page, they have him batting .380 with 19 homers, 105 steals, and 132 walks in 218 career tournament games. I decided to go through Johnson’s box scores since June to check in on his swing and miss numbers. In 66 plate appearances, Johnson swung 113 times and whiffed just 20 times which comes out to a sub 18% whiff rate (total whiffs / total swings). That’s very good and it comes with in-game power and on-base ability.
The cherry on top might be Johnson the person. He’s widely known as a charismatic leader with infectious positive energy. From what I’ve read and heard, Johnson is the type of player/person that others want to be around. He’s a tireless worker, a great teammate, and is someone who wants the bat in his hands when the game is on the line. Check out the clip below where just about every player in attendance at the PG All-American Classic HR Derby mobbed Johnson after he homered to win the derby. Respect.
*Clip from Keanan Lamb
Player comparisons aren’t my bread and butter and a lot of times they end up being forced. But Mason McRae came up with a comp for Termarr Johnson that I really like in Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez. Johnson’s bat has played at an elite level time and time again so I kind of don’t care if he ends up at second or third base. I’ll bet on the bat here and worry about the rest in pro ball. Johnson remains uncommitted but is unlikely to reach campus anyway. He’s #1 for me and I don’t see many scenarios where he drops out of the top 5-10 picks in 2022.
Honorable Mentions
Commentaires