Right Handed Pitchers
Luis Guerrero, Chipola College, 35+ FV- Guerrero was a 35 FV in my 2020 draft database but has made a lot of progress in a short amount of time. Guerrero pitches at Chipola Junior College and is eligible for the 2021 draft. He seems to have added some good weight to his 6'0/215 frame and he looks way more athletic overall. I had only seen Guerrero pitch out of the stretch in videos from high school. Now he has a full delivery that looks way more fluid and in control than in the past where he was a bit too stiff. There's some length to his arm action but the arm speed is above-average to plus. His athleticism allows Guerrero to finish his delivery on time despite considerable effort. He likes to mix up the timing of his delivery and will change his arm slot and incorporate turns and pauses in his delivery to mess with the hitter's timing. That level of pitchability, athleticism, and deception are major pluses for Guerrero.
Guerrero primarily features a three-pitch mix with confidence in each offering. Again, the pitchability is a plus here and he shows feel for mixing his pitches effectively. His fastball gets great ride and will show arm side running action. He holds his velocity much better than he did in high school and the pitch is consistently in the 93-96 range. The pitch plays well at the top of the zone and is a swing and miss pitch when commanded. He'll sometimes throw a fastball that gets a bit more sink and shows 2 seam action. His breaking ball is a curveball that shows 11-5 shape and has sharp bite at times. He has feel for the pitch and it can miss bats. The pitch that has shown the biggest jump has been the changeup. Guerrero showed feel for the pitch in the past but now it's looking like a potential plus offering. I'm not sure if he is throwing two distinct pitches or not, but he'll throw one that shows more fading action while the other has more movement and drop. Either way, the split-change is a real weapon that Guerrero is confident throwing in any count. Guerrero has struggled to throw strikes in the early going this season which is the main factor preventing me from moving him into the 40 FV tier. He's understandably raw in some facets like maintaining his arm speed/slot on his off-speed stuff and his delivery is still a work in progress. Guerrero is only in his 2nd year at the college level so it's understandable that there are flaws. The delivery, size, and strike throwing issues all give Guerrero some considerable reliever risk but he also has some starter traits and plenty of development time remaining.
* video courtesy of Cayden Hatcher
Ben Casparius, Connecticut, 35+ FV- Casparius was a high-level recruit for UNC and was expected to be an immediate two-way contributor for the Tar Heels. He had an encouraging freshman year but played sparingly as a sophomore and decided to transfer to UConn. Casparius sat out all of last year due to the NCAA's silly transfer rules and had only 27 innings pitched coming into 2021. In the interim, Casparius took to pitching full time and his stuff and overall profile have jumped as a result. He came to UConn with feel for spin and a fastball that sat in the 90-92 range. Now, Casparius gets his fastball into the mid '90s and will regularly sit 92-95. I thought he profiled best as a two-pitch relief prospect but Casparius now shows a slew of starting traits. He's a good athlete with a low effort delivery and a four-pitch mix. He commands his fastball well and his slider has a chance to be an above-average or plus pitch while his curve and changeup are also quality.
He entered the 2021 season as UConn's Friday night starter and will be a contender for Big East pitcher of the year. He had an impressive first outing against a loaded University of Virginia team that features draft prospects up and down the lineup. Casparius went 5.2 innings, gave up 2 earned runs, 4 hits, 1 walk, and struck out 6. Casparius is surprisingly polished and continues to develop and progress as a pitcher. He's a potential top 5 round pick this July if he can maintain his stuff over starts and the season overall.
Ray Gaither, Dallas Baptist, 35 FV- There are very few schools outside the power conferences that produce as many quality draft arms as Dallas Baptist. Gaither was expected to be one of those arms the moment he stepped onto campus. He served as DBU's Friday night starter (and even hit a bit) for a good chunk of his Freshman year and was expected to anchor Dallas Baptist's rotation for years to come. Unfortunately, Gaither's career was derailed a bit by injury (he needed TJ surgery) as he missed nearly all of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. He finally got back on the mound in 2020 and was off to an encouraging start before the cancelation. Since Gaither has been at DBU a total of 9 DBU pitchers have been drafted with two (Burl Carraway and Seth Elledge) going in the top 5 rounds. Gaither, now 23, has had to sit by and watch fellow teammates begin their college careers while he just hopes to get on a mound.
Gaither is starting the season in DBU's weekend rotation and the hope is that he is back to full strength for the 2021 season. His first start against Austin Peay was encouraging while his second against Gonzaga was closer to a disaster. He rebounded with 6 shutout innings against Oklahoma this past weekend. Gaither is a very good athlete and throws from a high 3/4 slot with some effort. He's shown 4 usable pitches in the past including a slider, cutter, and a curve. His fastball sits in the low 90s and gets up to about 94-95. I think Gaither is capable of more and I wouldn't be surprised if his stuff took off in a pro bullpen. Pitching out of the pen is probably Gaither's best shot to a pro career given his injury history, age, and delivery. As a fifth-year junior Gaither will still technically have eligibility after this year, but I would imagine he'd like to get his career going sooner rather than later. This could make him an attractive and sneaky top 10 round/underslot option this July
Javier Rivera, Florida Atlantic, 35 FV- Only 17 players ranked ahead of Rivera on PerfectGame's final juco rankings list before the 2020 MLB draft. 5 of those players are now with pro teams and another 8 are pitching in a D1 power conference. In other words, Rivera is a legitimate prospect that deserves some attention. Rivera spent most of his time as a shortstop in high school before turning to pitching. He is a fresh arm with a lot of development ahead of him. Rivera has a lean, athletic body and it looks like he has some projection remaining. He transferred into Florida Atlantic after spending a single year at Indian River State College.
I haven't gotten a look at him yet in 2021 but I was able to catch some clips of him over the summer. It's a loose, athletic delivery with some length to the arm action but with very impressive arm speed. There is effort to the delivery which makes it difficult to project him as a starter long term. He can vary the movement on his fastball with one showing 2 seam action with sinking arm side life and another with more ride and tail. The pitch has life and sits in the 92-96 range and reports from the fall indicated that Rivera topped out at 97. The breaking ball is a swing and miss pitch when commanded effectively and his changeup shows some potential. Rivera probably has 20 command presently and he'll need to really improve his pitchability. Rivera has top 10 round potential and I like him as a potential late-inning reliever at this next level. There is potential for even more as he learns the ins and outs of being a full-time pitcher.
Mason Miller, Gardner-Webb, 35 FV- Miller comes to Gardner Webb as a grad transfer from DIII Waynesburg. I don't have too much info on Miller to date but he's a 6'5/200 righty with easy fastball velocity in the mid 90s that has topped out at 97. His slider will flash sharp break at times but needs to be firmed up a bit. He also has a changeup but it's a distant third offering. Miller's size, arm strength, and fastball will give him a chance to go in the top 10 rounds this July. I'm hoping to catch one of his starts in the near future. Miller could move in to the 35+ FV tier depending on how his secondaries look. He's one of those arms that dominates in a smaller conference, gets drafted early-ish, and everybody asks with "Who is this?".
Jack Gowen, Georgia, 35 FV- Gowen was a siderarming prep that spent a lot of his time at Georgia messing around with his arm slot. He would show different looks during appearances and shuffled between submarine, sidearm, and low 3/4. After struggling in his freshman season, Gowen scrapped the funky arm slots and now throws exclusively from a high 3/4 slot. He is still working on maintaining his delivery and arm slot, but the early returns on that switch have been promising. His fastball velocity is fairly ordinary at 90-94, but the angle, the extension he gets off the mound, and the spin he gets on the pitch allows it to play to at least an above-average level. It's a pitch that hitters really struggle identifying and it pairs well with his curveball. Both his curveball and changeup show above average potential and can miss bats when located. Gowen still struggles to throw strikes/commanding his arsenal, but that may come in time as he gets more comfortable with his new mechanics. Gowen has pitched exclusively out of the pen for Georgia and during his stint in the Coastal Plain League this summer. I'd love to get a chance to see him start and see how his 3 pitch mix plays over longer outings. For now, Gowen has late day 2 potential and should appeal to more analytically inclined teams.
Gowen, 2016:
Gowen, Spring 2020:
Jaycob Deese, Houston, 40 FV- A personal favorite of mine. Deese popped up a bit last year with some high 90s velocity. The righty was up to 98 MPH with the fastball while pitching at the juco level for Galveston College. Deese now pitches at Houston and has quickly established himself as one of the best juco transfers at the D1 level. Deese has a long, lean build and is a very athletic pitcher. His arm speed is electric and it's a clean arm action overall. Deese has an uptempo delivery and gets great extension off the mound.
Deese pitches primarily off the strength of his fastball. It sits in the 92-96 range and we've seen it get even higher during games in the past. It's a lively pitch and you can tell by the way Deese aggressively attacks hitters with the fastball that he's extremely confident using it. The pitch shows solid spin rates and Deese can work the pitch effectively to all four quadrants of the strike zone. Deese's slider is his best secondary pitch and it plays well as a chase pitch, though he can also land it in the zone for strikes. The changeup isn't used much but could be fringe-average if used more consistently. I was a bit disappointed to see that Deese wasn't in line to start for Houston as I thought he could be an instant contributor in that role. However, it looks like Houston plans on using him primarily as a multi-inning reliever. Out of Deese's 4 outings, 3 of them have been 3 innings or more (2 outings have been 3 innings with 1 outing lasting 4 innings) which has given me a decent idea of how he'd profile as a starter. In the outings I caught, Deese held his stuff/velocity and maintained his command fairly well throughout. I think it would be worth giving Deese a look as a starter in pro ball, but his two above-average/plus pitches would work extremely well in a high leverage bullpen role. I'm likely going to be the "high man" on Deese, but I think he has top 3-5 round potential.
Marcus Olivarez, Lamar, 35 FV- Olivarez really popped over the summer in the Coastal Plain League. While the results there (ERA north of 9.00) were less than stellar, the overall package opened eyes. Pitching out of the pen, Olivarez is well built at 6'3/200 and is a solid athlete overall. He has excellent arm strength and he gets to his top velocity fairly easily. The fastball gets up to 98 and was 93-96 during the summer. The pitch plays below its velocity as hitters seem to track the pitch well. Because of this, it's imperative that Olivarez improves his control and command of the pitch. Right now his command is a '20' and as a 4th year junior he'll need to improve quickly to profile as a pro. His mechanics aren't complicated but he gets out of sync often and struggles to regain a feel for his delivery. Olivarez also throws a promising power slider that he hangs too often but could be plus. Olivarez has yet to pitch this spring but is expected to be the team's closer this season. He'll get drafted as an arm strength flier at some point in the draft depending on how he looks this spring.
Bo Blessie, Midland College, 35 FV- Blessie was a high-level recruit in 2018 that was drafted by the Nationals in the 36th round. He made it to campus at Nebraska, received very little mound time in two years (7.2 IP), and has since transferred to juco ball at Midland College. Blessie has battled various injuries in the past and his poor control kept him off the mound for much of his Nebraska career. But Blessie is still blessed with a strong/athletic body that has a ton of projection. After losing his stuff, Blessie is back to looking like a legit draft prospect. He's been in the 92-95 range with the fastball and it's a high spin offering. The slider has excellent spin (over 3,000 rpm's) and is a potential plus pitch. His command is still a work in progress and his delivery needs to be cleaned up a bit. The early returns for Blessie at the juco level have been solid as he currently has a 2.65 ERA with 23 strikeouts (and 10 walks) in 17 innings. Blessie is committed to Texas Tech for the 2022 season and I think it's likely that teams will wait and see how he looks at the D1 level before giving him legit draft interest. Day 2 potential if his strike-throwing improves considerably.
Blake Holub, St. Edwards, 35 FV- Holub has had a successful career on both sides of the ball as a two-way player for St. Edwards University (DII) in Texas. He caught my attention after seeing some clips of him over the summer and fall. Apparently, Holub's fastball took a jump and he was hitting 96 with regularity while sitting in the 91-95 range. Holub has a shorter arm action with above-average arm speed from a 3/4 slot. He also throws a quality curveball and a changeup that has above-average potential. Holub is slated to pitch in the newly formed MLB draft league later this year which will give him an opportunity to prove himself against higher-end competition. I'm not sure how he's valued currently but with the boost in stuff he is certainly someone to watch closely this cycle. Through 3 starts Holub has a 0.55 ERA and a 20:7 K: BB ratio in 16.1 innings.
*video courtesy of PBR Texas
Left Handed Pitchers
Tyler Grauer, Indiana State, 35 FV- Since becoming Indiana State's full-time closer in 2019, Grauer has been nothing short of exceptional. In 49 innings Grauer has pitched to a 1.84 ERA with 71 strikeouts and just 9 walks. He carried that success over to the Coastal Plain League this summer where he was one of the top FaBIO performers in the wood bat league. Grauer isn't overpowering and he doesn't have a typical late-inning relief profile. He relies heavily on pitchability, deception, and a plus changeup. The 6.5/220 lefty has a strong, durable build and throws his fastball in the 88-91 range with command that projects as above average. He's shown a bit more velocity over the last year or so and if he can get his fastball more consistently in the low 90s he becomes a much more intriguing relief arm. Besides his command, Grauer's best tool is his ability to command a plus changeup, a pitch he relies heavily on to rack up strikeouts and weak contact. Grauer also throws a curveball that can flash average, but it isn't a consistent pitch for him to date and needs tightening.
We've seen college lefties dominate hitters on the strength of their changeups only to struggle as they climb the minor-league ladder. That risk is certainly there for Grauer and as a 5th year senior who will be almost 24 years old at the time of the draft, there isn't a ton of development time remaining for him. He will need to prove that he can effectively combat righthanded hitters and generate enough weak contact to avoid HR issues as a pro since there are some red flags with his batted ball profile. I'd feel more comfortable grading Grauer higher if he had either a little more zip on his fastball or a consistently effective breaker. For now, Grauer's most likely path to a big-league role is as a left on left focused reliever, though he's had success against righties to date. He could go late on day 2 as a top 10 round senior sign with the potential to move quickly in pro ball.
Julian Bosnic, South Carolina, 35+ FV- Bosnic is a former highly rated prep that came into the 2021 season with almost no mound time due to injuries and covid. He missed all of 2019 with Tommy John and then pitched just 6.2 innings in 2020. He started to look more like his old self this fall and was able to secure the Sunday starting job for South Carolina despite his lack of mound time.
Bosnic has plenty of raw stuff but his deception allows his arsenal to play up. His arm slot is nearly over the top (vertical arm angle anyone?) and he finishes with a crossfire delivery. The plane, angle, and ability to hide to the ball all add to his individual pitches. And it's not like Bosnic is a soft-tossing, junkballer. Bosnic throws his fastball in the 90-94 range and maxed out at 96 this fall. His breaking ball tunnels well with the fastball and features high spin rates and plus depth. Bosnic also shows feel for a slider and a changeup giving him the chance to carve out a 4 pitch mix as a pro. Bosnic's major drawback is his command. His ability to repeat and finish his delivery has been a challenge and there is some violence to his delivery. His command has improved from last year and we know that command is usually the last thing to return for a pitcher coming back from TJ surgery. Bosnic looks like a reliever to me, but he'd likely get a chance to start in the pros as long as he holds up in a starting role for the Gamecocks. He has top 5 round potential, but he also is still technically a freshman (redshirt seasons in 2019 and 2020) and has plenty of eligibility remaining. He could be a tough sign if his bonus number is a bit too rich for pro teams.
*video courtesy of the one and only PitchingNinja
Trey Shaffer, Southeastern Louisiana, 35 FV- Shaffer has shown real promise during his Southeastern Louisiana career but finally took a leap forward in 2020. Shaffer's fastball jumped a bit from the 88-91 range and is now up to 94 and sits in the low 90s. His changeup has also developed into a usable pitch which, along with his slider, gives him 3 pitches he can rely on. Shaffer is a good athlete with some projection remaining in his 6'1/180 build. He has above-average arm speed and struggles to maintain his arm slot and repeat his delivery. Those factors make it hard for Shaffer to throw strikes consistently and to locate in the zone. Even during his breakout 2020 season (1.23 ERA in 22 innings with 32 K's and only 8 hits allowed) Shaffer still issued a concerning amount of walks and finished with a BB/9 of 4.9. 2 of his 3 starts this year have been solid but he got bombed against Arizona which will be the best lineup he faces this year by far. Shaffer will need to really pitch the rest of the way in the Southland Conference to get into the top 10 rounds this July. Shaffer was offered multiple NDFA deals following the shortened 2020 draft so we know that he is on the pro team radar. There are some late bloomer traits here with Shaffer and he could continue to make legitimate gains in a pro system.
Ky Bush, St. Mary's, 35 FV- Kyler Bush has been on my radar since the 2018 draft cycle and fit the projection lefty mold with a big and strong 6'5/220 body. He's bounced around since being drafted in the 40th round by the Nationals and pitched a year each at Washington State and Central Arizona College. He transferred into the West Coast Conference at St. Mary's and is one of the team's weekend starters. Bush has seen steady growth in terms of filling out his body, improving his pitchability, and taking his stuff to a new level. Apparently Bush also prefers to go by Ky instead of Kyler further completing his transformation.
Bush sat mostly in the high 80s and rarely touched the low 90s back in high school. The fastball climbed a bit over the last two years and was starting to show more 90's and 91s. This fall Bush was reportedly up to 96 and sure enough, he's been hitting 96 in starts early on in the season. Along with his fastball gains Bush has toned up his body and is a physical beast on the mound at 6'5/240. Bush has big arm strength and uses a shorter arm action from a higher slot. He's cleaned up his delivery which was a bit violent when I saw him at Washington State (though it was fairly repeatable) and used to have some head whack. His secondaries have been mostly fringe-average in the past and getting a look/read at those will be a priority for me in the weeks ahead. The body, fastball, overall progression, and D1 success (1.69(nice) ERA, 21 K, 4 BB through 3 starts, and 16 innings) gives him day 2 potential for July.
Bonus Sleepers!!!
Right Handed Pitchers:
Ian Villers, California; Cory Wall, Fordham; Garrett French, Rutgers; Calvin Starnes, Purdue; Levi David, Northwestern State; Blake Beers, Michigan; Ryan Cardona, Marist; Peyton Zabel, Iowa Western JC; David Johnson, Georgia Southern; Jake Pilarski, The Citadel; Bryant Salgado, Oregon State; Ryan Watson, Georgia State
Left Handed Pitchers:
Kevin Dowdell, Calhoun JC; Christian Lothes, Charlotte; Hayes Heinecke, Wofford; Parker Scott, Oklahoma State; Russell Smith, TCU; Luke Seed, Louisville; Carson Skipper, Auburn; Colin Clark, Youngstown State
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