The Prelude
From day 1 of the 2021 MLB draft cycle, the constant feeling was one of uncertainty. Between the ongoing destabilization across the nation caused by Covid-19, the cancellation of leagues/games/seasons, the limited amounts of live looks and player data, and the after-effects of a shortened 2020 season and 5 round draft, it was a cycle that never felt stable. The precariousness of the 2021 draft cycle was evident as we crept closer toward Pittsburgh's 1st selection without any clue as to what they planned to do. There were storylines, trends, and draft nuggets to be found throughout the event's three days but the focus here is going to be limited to what we saw from the San Francisco Giants.
The top 10 picks of the draft played out in dramatic fashion as mocks and boards were thrown through a loop early. I personally designated 9 players as unobtainable for the Giants at 14th overall with a few other players as highly unlikely to drop that far. After the Mets selection of Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker at #10 overall, three of those unobtainable players (Brady House, Kahlil Watson, and Sal Frelick) remained on the board as well as two of the three unlikely players (Matt McLain and Ty Madden). Even someone who struggles with math as much as I do was able to figure out that the Giants would be able to choose from at least two of those players when it was their turn to pick.
After a few more selections, the only member of that 5 player group that was selected ended up being prep shortstop Brady House who went 11th to the Nationals. The Giants were in a dream scenario with Kahlil Watson, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, and Ty Madden on the board . . . they didn't select any of them. Instead, the Giants skipped on the three bats and Texas righty Ty Madden and went with College World Series MVP Will Bednar. It was a puzzling pick, one that left me conflicted. I had Will Bednar ranked 13th overall on my board and had him rated as the 5th best pitcher in the entire draft. Only Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, and Gunnar Hoglund were ahead of Bednar on my board. He was somebody I had ranked as a 1st rounder even before his dominance on college baseball's biggest stage. Quite simply, Will Bednar was one of my favorite players in the entire draft. For comparison's sake, here is where some draft publications had Bednar ranked:
Baseball America had Bednar at 38 before their final top 500 board while Prospects Live had him 25th. Bednar was 21st on my board in June and never dropped below 30th at any point this spring. I'm not using these comparisons as criticism towards any of these publications, I'm just emphasizing the point that Bednar was someone I really coveted. Unfortunately, the selection of Bednar meant the Giants passed on several players that I had ranked above him with one player sitting all the way up at #3 overall on my board. That conflicted and somewhat hollow feeling that ensnared me was caused almost entirely by Kahlil Watson being passed over. Watson is a shortstop from Wake Forest High School in North Carolina. He secured the #3 spot on my board and was very high on my Giants wish list for the better part of 6 months. Seeing Watson land in the Giants' lap was something I never expected. Passing on him at 14th overall was a hard pill to swallow especially after hearing the Giants had significant interest in him per Fangraphs writer (and former Houston Astros front office executive) Kevin Goldstein. I did my best to withhold my disappointment on draft night and through the next two days as best I could, trying to keep in mind that picks in the MLB draft don't happen in a vacuum. A team's picks are connected to one another and spending more on one player can limit your options later on in the draft. So much of the draft (unfortunately) revolves around money. There were still maneuvers that the Giants could perform that could net them a player (or players) that wouldn't be available if Watson was the pick. We saw the Giants use this strategy under Farhan Zaidi/Michael Holmes the past two years, with lefty Kyle Harrison being the big prize in 2020. If passing on Watson for Bednar also netted them someone like Gage Jump, Bubba Chandler, or Will Taylor I think I would consider that a success. For two days I and other Giants fans waited for the Giants to play their trump card. It never happened. The Giants didn't make a splash in round 3 like they did in 2020 and the selection of Eric Silva in round 4 wasn't exactly the tidal wave I was expecting. Day 3 was more of the same and at the end of 20 rounds, I couldn't help but feel underwhelmed.
Perhaps we will receive some info on what went on behind the scenes during that first pick. I'm interested in hearing what happened during the Giants' negotiations with Watson that caused them to go a different route. We may never get a clear answer but it's a head-scratcher, to say the least. But it's important to remember that development continues and players can and will change. There is no guarantee that Kahlil Watson ends up being a better major leaguer than Will Bednar or any of the other selections the Giants made this year. The Giants accumulated some very exciting players that I'm eager to see perform in pro ball. I won't lie and say these are the 20 players I personally wanted at each spot, but that doesn't mean they aren't talented. I might not be able to shake the 2016/2019 draft vibes that I've been getting, but there is still room for optimism and I'll be rooting for each one of these 20 players throughout their professional careers. Let's put on our positive thinking hats and take a look at what the Giants came away with after 20 rounds of drafting.
The Draft
I'll be going over each player in a moment but first I want to talk a little about the Giants strategy as a whole. The most obvious takeaway was the number of pitchers they selected. The Giants opened the draft with 9 straight pitchers and finished with 14 in total. This was almost a complete reversal from their 2019 draft when they waited until round 8 to take their first pitcher. While this is certainly unique for the Giants, it wasn't all that unique when you consider what other teams did this year. There were several teams that went in hard on pitching this draft with the Angels seemingly unaware that hitters were even available to be drafted at all. Here are some teams that went heavy on pitching in 2021
Angels: drafted 20 straight pitchers
Indians: drafted pitchers with 19 of their 21 picks
White Sox: drafted only pitchers in rounds 3 through 12
Dodgers: drafted 16 straight pitchers
Blue Jays: drafted pitchers with 9 of their first 10 picks
This was a pitching-heavy draft for many teams beyond the ones listed here. However, the Giants and these 5 other teams clearly took that to a different level. There are a lot of theories for why this happened and there are probably several reasons that contributed. I tend to believe that the lack of 2020 data from the college season and Cape Cod League was a major factor. Not being able to plug that information into a team's draft model may have pushed a huge group of college bats (usually a hot commodity) down the board. Some bats may not have even been considered at all. On top of that, we are living at a point in time where teams' understanding of pitching and what makes pitchers/pitches "good" is ahead of the hitting side of things. The combination of teams not having the information that they usually rely on for evaluating hitters and the current landscape of pitcher evaluation and development likely set up a scenario where pitchers were being valued higher across the league. MLB teams are notorious for trying to minimize risk, I think that's what we saw in 2021.
But it wasn't just the number of pitchers the Giants selected that caught my attention, it was the type. The majority of the pitchers the Giants took this year had a similar profile where they had "big stuff" with questionable command and control. This is certainly true for Bednar, Mikulski, Black, Handa, Lonsway, Villers, Myrick, and Bosnic. All of these pitchers have exciting pitch data and multiple MLB quality pitches. The Dodgers also seemed to target this type of pitcher throughout their draft. In recent years, the prevailing wisdom was that teams are better at developing "stuff" rather than "command". Because of that, it made sense to target pitchers with so-so stuff but who could really spot their pitches since you could develop the stuff once you got those pitchers working in your pro system. The poster boy for this type of thinking is Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians. For Giant fans, a good example would be Kyle Harrison who had OK stuff but had advanced command for a high school lefty. But the Giants and Dodgers went in a different direction it seems. Both organizations are known for being among the most progressive in baseball so this could very well be a case where both of these teams know something other organizations don't. It will be exciting to see how the Giants and Dodgers draft classes progress over the next several years. A case study in action.
Many of the Giants pitchers saw major development in a relatively short amount of time. Bednar became a college ace after having barely any mound time during his college career. Both Mikulski and Handa made mechanical changes that took their stuff to a new level. Villers, like Bednar, had a limited sample of innings at Cal but was showing a starter's arsenal on the cape this June. Bosnic pitched 6 innings at South Carolina before 2021, but by the end of the year was one of the Gamecocks' most trusted relievers. Eric Silva kept showing louder stuff as the spring progressed and was up to 97-98 in June. And if you heard of Nick Sinacola before the 2021 season started you deserve some kind of medal or award. The Giants loaded up on late bloomer after late bloomer for 3 days. Whether that was by design or not is unknown to me, but it's interesting nonetheless. Let's take a closer look at each Giants selection:
Rounds 1-5
1.14: Will Bednar, rhp, Mississippi State, #13, 45 FV
I went over my Bednar infatuation earlier, but what kind of pitcher is he? Bednar is a 6'2/220 righty with a sturdy, durable build. Bednar is barrel-chested and shows strength throughout his body, but especially in the upper half. The term bulldog is a bit overused at this point, but Bednar really does fit that moniker. He's poised on the mound and is always in attack mode. Bednar had limited mound time at MSU, and came into the 2021 season with just 16 innings to his name. Despite his inexperience, Mississippi State entrusted him with a weekend starter role in the most competitive college conference in the nation. He didn't disappoint, Bednar was a steady performer and continued to grow as the season carried on. He was well deserving of his MVP award during the College World Series. In 3 starts Bednar allowed just 3 earned runs over 18.1 innings with 26 strikeouts, 6 walks, and just 5 hits allowed. Bednar struck out 15 batters during his first start against Texas and allowed just a single hit, while he fired off 6 hitless innings against Vanderbilt in the championship game. Bednar certainly improved his draft stock with those final performances, but he was already a highly thought-of pitcher before his late-season heroics.
His pitch mix is fairly simple. He works primarily off of two pitches in his fastball and slider. The fastball is an above-average pitch currently with riding action when thrown up in the zone and some good tailing action when working down. When his fastball is on, you'll see a lot of swings underneath the ball resulting in whiffs, popups, and weak fly balls. Good example below:
It's not elite velocity at 94 and it's not even at the very top of the zone. But these are the kinds of weak swings Bednar can induce.
Bednar has touched 97 MPH multiple times during the spring and will routinely get into the 95-96 area early on in starts. But even at his more typical 91-94 range, Bednar is still capable of generating empty swings at fastballs in the strike zone. Bednar's ability to locate his fastball effectively at the top of the zone improved as the season progressed. It's not pinpoint accuracy by any means, but I have it as fringe average overall. It's certainly not impossible for him to get that to a solid average level in time. The gains he made in such a short amount of time provide some optimism on that front. With a tick more velocity and more consistent command you can put a future grade of a 60 or even a 65 on the pitch.
The slider is currently his best offering. It tunnels well with his fastball and it's hard for hitters to identify. He gets huge sweeping action on the pitch and the movement appears to be extremely late. Because of how late the pitch breaks (whether real or perceived) it's extremely difficult for hitters to identify and react to the pitch. The way his fastball and slider play together are ideal and fit "the meta" of attacking hitters in baseball today. Rising fastball up in the zone, breaking ball down in the zone. His ability to master this combination will make him a successful pitcher in some form. The development of a third pitch will be key in determining what role he ultimately fills as a pro. His changeup has not been good most of the year. It's usually a 30-40 grade pitch but he has thrown 50 grade ones at times. The caveat here is that he didn't really need to use his changeup. For most of the year, especially towards the end of the season, his fastball and slider were more than enough to dominate. It's not a pitch that he CAN'T throw, it just needs further development and honing. The Giants might also consider adding another breaking ball. A curve with more north/south movement would provide him with a different look and another weapon in his bag of tricks.
One interesting thing in regards to Will Bednar is the fact that his brother is already a successful pitcher at the MLB level. David Bednar is a reliever for the Pittsburgh Pirates (originally drafted by the Padres) who really blossomed after getting into pro ball. He has a similar build, similar mechanics, and came into the big leagues without a changeup much like Will. David has since added a 55 or 60 grade splitter which acts like a changeup. He also saw his velocity increase a significant amount. Will is a little more fully formed physically at this stage compared to where his brother was, but I think David provides a pretty decent blueprint for what Will's progression through pro ball might look like. Will has a pretty safe floor where his two-pitch combo would be absolutely filthy in a bullpen role. The way I see it, how high he climbs will be determined by how he progresses in three areas: command, third pitch development, fastball velocity. If none of those three things happen you probably have a late-inning reliever. If one of those three things happens you have a backend starter. And if two of those things develop you could have a #3 starter or better.
Beyond just Will Bednar the pitcher there is also Will Bednar the person. Everything you hear about this young man is glowing. The work ethic, determination, and looseness on and off the field are all major strengths for Will. You can see that he loves playing baseball and being around his teammates, the fans, and the game itself. He has an almost happy-go-lucky demeanor and is someone that is really easy to root for. He's the kind of personality that would have fit right in with those 2010-2014 Giants teams.
I haven't followed Giants prospects as much as I would have liked to this year, but I'd say Bednar slots in as their 2nd best pitching prospect (maybe 3rd) behind Kyle Harrison. You can check out some of Bednar's highlights from postseason play in the video below, provided by 'Wheels'.
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Matt Mikulski, lhp, Fordham, #40, 40+ FV
Mikulski was a legitimate prospect already in 2020 and was #261 on my draft board last year. Because of the 5 round draft, Mikulski went undrafted and ended up back at Fordham. Not getting drafted in 2020 obviously put a chip on his shoulder because Mikulski really went to work. Here's how he looked in February 2020 in a clip provided by Perfect Game.
This version of Mikulski was 90-94 with 30/40 grade command, a good slider, and a solid flashing curveball. Here's a GIF I made from a clip that Perfect Game posted on Twitter:
It's not a perfect 1:1 comparison angle but you can see that Mikulski really tightened things up. Everything is more compact and the arm action is shorter and quicker to the plate. The results? A fastball that can sit 92-96 and has reportedly been up to 100 MPH, but usually maxes out at 97 or 98 during starts. The slider was more consistently a plus weapon for him and his changeup also took off and flashed plus as well. Mikulski can get some rise on his fastball which allows it to play up in the zone. Two plus pitches and one above average pitch is likely. As you can see, it's still not the cleanest delivery. He always had a head whack (you can still see the head movement clearly in the GIF) and his arm slot will waver. Because of this, it's hard to project future command gains and it's likely that Mikulski will have elevated walk totals as a pro. His command certainly improved this year, but I think the quality of his stuff made that improvement appear larger than it really was. It's important to note that this is all very new for Mikulski. Harnessing his new stuff and perfecting his new mechanics may take a little time, he's been pitching at this level for less than a year. His stuff, age (he's already 22), and questionable command would normally point to a future in the bullpen but I think that's ignoring some important context. Mikulski could certainly move quickly as a reliever, maybe even provide value at the MLB level in some capacity this year, but I'd pump the brakes on that idea and see what he looks like as a starter in pro ball.
I thought Mikulski would be a popular selection for a team with multiple picks early in the draft. In the Prospects Live mock draft that I participated in Mikulski went 43rd overall to the Royals. In my own mock, Mikulski went 35th to the Reds. I think the Giants received really good value on this Mikulski pick at 50th overall and I never really anticipated him being available for the Giants in the 2nd round. He was 40th on my draft board and slotted in at 38th overall over at Fangraphs. How he's utilized as a pro remains to be seen. Regardless, Mikulski instantly becomes one of the top lefty pitchers in the Giants system.
Mason Black, rhp, Lehigh, #124, 40 FV
Black is frustrating for me. I flirted with the idea of putting a 40+ FV grade on him at various times during this draft cycle. He received some top 100 consideration as I set up my final board but his inconsistencies dropped him down to #126. Black burst on the scene back in 2019 during a fantastic showing in the Cape Cod League. He finished that run with a 1.47 ERA in 36.2 innings while striking out 39, walking 12, and allowing 27 hits. Black came into 2021 with 1-2 round potential but faded down the stretch this year. Since that breakout on the Cape, Black has shown flashes of dominant stuff but never really put it all together for extended stretches. For a pitcher with his level of stuff, you'd expect a bit more production as a pitcher in the Patriot League. He finished his Lehigh career with a 3.53 ERA in 127.1 innings with 152 strikeouts, 51 walks, and 114 hits allowed. Solid numbers for sure. But far from the kind of performance most expected after his time on the Cape.
Black is well built at 6'3/210 and looks the part of an MLB pitcher. He has plus arm strength with the speed to match and the ball comes out of his hand with ease. He throws from an over-the-top slot but his ability to get down the mound through elite extension allows the ball to release from a deceptive angle. The arm action and the way it syncs with his delivery are inconsistent for me. I'm not sure if he has tried tinkering with it over the past year, but it looked different towards the end of the season. It's definitely not a "good different". Getting that arm action sorted out will be the first thing on the Giants to-do list with Black.
While his season was up and down, Black's stuff never really wavered. He sits comfortably in the 92-96 range during starts and will reach back for more at times. He's been clocked as high as 99 and will show 97-98 early in starts. Black's fastball will flatten out and it can play below its velocity. Other times the pitch will show sinking action. My guess is that the Giants will look to improve the spin direction/sinking action on his fastball and turn the pitch into a power sinker. With better optimization and usage, I see a potential 60 pitch here.
There is a lot of variance in his offspeed quality. I've seen a plus changeup but it's been rare. It doesn't need to have great movement to be successful, Black just needs to "sell it" and let the velocity separation between the fastball and changeup do its thing. I'm comfortable putting a future plus grade on the pitch but it's far from that level currently. He seems to favor his slider and though his feel of it is just OK, the movement and spin are solid at times. Black throws it hard and it can be a swing and miss/power breaker at its best. He has the ability to spin it, now it's time to control and harness it.
Black profiles as a late inning reliever at this stage. For someone with his level of stuff and track record of success, he still has a lot of areas to improve. I have no doubt that the Giants will run him out there as a starter to begin his career, but it's hard to see that lasting long as things currently stand. Like Bednar and Mikulski who were picked ahead of him, Black has loud present stuff that could fill a variety of valuable roles. If Black doesn't end up a starter it doesn't mean this was a bad pick by any means. I would have been more open to Black in the 4th round, but power arms like this don't grow on trees. Follow this link HERE for some quick video and analysis of Mason Black from the legendary Jim Callis.
Eric Silva, rhp, JSerra Catholic (CA), #141, 40 FV
The lone prep pitcher the Giants took in 2021. Part of me expected Silva to join talented prepsters Nick McLain, Cody Schrier, and Malakhi Knight at UCLA. The Giants snatched him up in the 4th round and every indication suggests he will be a Giant. I'm not going to go over whether or not Silva was the right overslot choice for the Giants in this space. Instead, I'll focus on what kind of pitcher the Giants were able to acquire in the 4th round.
One of the bigger "knocks" on Silva is his size. While his body looks strong, he's only 6'0/180 which is obviously on the smaller side. I really don't care what his listed height is, to be honest, I think the Giants did well with this pick. Silva has electric arm speed and he uses his lower half well to get down the mound for good extension. The arm action looks clean and he throws without much effort. You can see his open-side mechanics in Prospect Pipeline's video HERE.
This isn't an undersized righty throwing max effort to get upper 90s velocity, he's very much in control of his body and mechanics. He throws from a lower approach because of his smaller size and his ability to create leverage down the mound. This lower release height allows his fastball to play well at the top of the zone with rising action. It's not the same look as Will Bednar who also has this rising type of fastball, but it does fit with "the meta" that I talked about earlier.
Silva's season started late because of covid restrictions in California, but it also meant his season ended late which gave us some looks closer to draft day. His stuff stagnated a bit during the middle of his high school season but he started showing premium velocity again in June with exciting hop on his fastball. Prospect Pipeline posted some video of Silva on his youtube channel in mid-June that showed him sitting mostly in the 92-95 MPH area and maxing out at around 97-98 on the fastball. This late boost is encouraging and it could be a big reason why the Giants felt comfortable taking him in the 4th round. Take a look:
The fastball is a high spinner as well as high velocity. You can see the rising action he gets on the pitch at times in the clip. There's plus potential with the fastball. The slider needs some work. I probably overrated it with my 55 grade prior to the draft. It will flash above average and he's capable of getting some good movement on the pitch, but there's a lot of slurves in the clips I've seen. Most likely, the Giants will work on turning the pitch into a true slider with sweeping action across the bottom half of the zone. I'll still keep the future 60 grade on the pitch, but it's more of a 45/50 pitch right now. Like the majority of high school righties, Silva didn't use a changeup often. The ones I've seen were thrown a bit too firm in the upper 80s. It's a nascent offering but it has some fading action and movement so I'm optimistic that it can be at least average in short order.
Silva hasn't had any issues throwing strikes at J Serra Catholic and reports on his pitchability and command are solid at the least. He's a bit older for the class at 18.09 and his size isn't something you can flat out ignore. The overall package is exciting and there is a lot of raw arm ability to build off of here. Like with Mikulski, simply labeling Silva a reliever is premature in my opinion. The Giants don't have many arms with this kind of profile. Four picks into this draft and the Giants have done a good job reshaping the makeup of their pitching talent down on the farm.
Rohan Handa, lhp, Yale, #415, 35 FV
It's amazing how a player can transform from a "cool story" into a player you are truly excited about once your favorite team drafts them. Handa is a perfect example. Sometime in June, I saw a tweet about an Indian kid from Yale throwing high 90s in some wood bat league. I added the name Rohan Handa into my draft database and left it at that. Later that week Handa's name came across my feed again and this time it was accompanied by some video of him throwing in the mid-to-high 90s. I believe THIS is the clip I saw. My immediate reaction was something like this:
So I did my best to dig up as much Rohan Handa info I could find. The picture became clear pretty fast, Rohan Handa was the real deal. With Yale baseball basically on a two-year hiatus, Handa took it upon himself to train with Tread Athletics and develop his talents as a left handed pitcher. Smart move. He took his newfound ability to the New England Collegiate League and showcased some big stuff. His fastball will sit in the 92-95 range and he's recorded max velocity readings of 97 and 98 MPH. Handa also has an 80 grade mustache.
I'm all in.
Now I've only seen Handa in bits and pieces and most of the pitch info I have is from other sources. Handa's slider has typically been graded as an above average pitch while his changeup is somewhere below that. There are strike throwing and command concerns from what I understand but the stuff he is showing is legit and the athleticism and movement on the mound inspire confidence. Handa is in similar territory as someone like Mikulski. This explosion of ability has happened pretty recently, especially so with Handa. There is way more that we don't know about Handa than what we do know. Put the reliever tag on this young man if you want. I'll wait to see what's in store for Handa with the Giants development team behind him. Handa's progression is worth learning more about and I'd suggest watching the clip below to find out more about the lefty from Yale. This article HERE is a good read as well.
I'll go over the rest of the 15 Giants draft picks in part 2 of my Giants draft review. Stay tuned folks.
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