With some free time to spare and the MLB draft in the rearview mirror, I decided to check out some local minor league ball. I saw the Yankees and the Orioles AA affiliates in the first game on 8/3 and followed that up with the Phillies and the Orioles (back-to-back Orioles affiliates was 100% not intentional on my part) on 8/5. I was able to see a few top 100 prospects over these two games and a couple of 2020 draftees. I even saw two-time all-star Luis Severino take the mound in a rehab start. These were the first pro baseball games I attended in nearly two years. Even though it wasn't an MLB game, it felt really great to catch professional ballplayers competing live and in person. I was also able to test out my new radar gun for the first time. I hope to get to one or two more games before the season ends. I have my eyes on a Mets/Yankees High A matchup for Thursday 8/19. That could mean Francisco Alvarez, JT Ginn, Ronny Mauricio, Austin Wells, and Anthony Volpe all at once!
All of the grades and rankings I have listed below come from Fangraphs. You can check out their prospect board HERE. Here is what I saw in the two games I caught earlier this month:
Bowie Baysox (Orioles, AA)
Adley Rutschman, C, 70 FV
Line: 2-4; 2B, HR
I was extremely lucky to see Rutschman just days before he was promoted to AAA. I doubled up on that luck by getting to see Rutschman face a legitimate big-league arm in Luis Severino. He worked a very impressive at bat against Severino and proceeded to hit an absolute missile to right field for a homer off a 95 MPH Severino fastball. Rutschman did not get to face Severino again however, he did double off another MLB arm in Wandy Peralta. The double off a lefty gave me a chance to see Rutschman swing it from the right side. Rutschman looked comfortable hitting righty and he used his baseball IQ and athleticism to stretch his single to center into a double.
Rutschman's pitch recognition is excellent. Sitting behind home plate, it was easy to see how quickly he was able to ID pitches and react accordingly. His feel for the K zone is phenomenal as he took multiple pitches for balls that were right on the edge. Examples below. This is a very special bat who will become one of the elite catchers in baseball the moment he gets the call to the majors. He's ready.
Kyle Stowers, RF, 45 FV
FG Ranking: BAL #12
Line: 1-4; SB, 3 K
Stowers's golden locks were immediately recognizable as he warmed up prior to the start of the game. He's impressive physically at 6'3/205 and has really filled out his body since his days at Stanford. Stowers looks primed for a strong side platoon role in an outfield corner. He doesn't get cheated at the plate with an aggressive hack and a ton of rotation in his swing. Stowers should provide a healthy amount of left handed power given his natural strength and violence in his swing but he's likely to strike out in bunches. Stowers shows some semblance of a pro approach as he looked to work counts. He was a bit passive in this game and two of his strikeouts came looking. He also swung and missed several times which is to be expected given his swing. I don't see Stowers becoming an everyday player because of the swing and miss issues but his ability to hit for power, work walks, and play a quality right field should allow him to carve out a long career as a role player.
Zach Watson, CF, 35+ FV
FG Ranking: BAL #37
Line: 1-4; HR, 1 K
I was really happy to get a chance to see Watson play in this one. He's someone I really enjoyed watching at LSU because of his balls to the wall style of play. Watson is an undersized dude who looks smaller than his 6'0/165 listing. He's highly athletic with wiry strength and gritty determination that allows him to get the most out of his tools. Watson's season line has been disappointing as he's run a .780 OPS across two levels with most of that coming at Low A. He put a charge into one to center for a homer as he showed off some impressive bat speed and surprising raw strength. I think pitchers are going to feel comfortable challenging Watson in the zone as his ability to consistently impact the ball is somewhat limited. This might be a reason why his walk rates have been so low as a pro to date, though he's always been an aggressive hitter. At this point, Watson is trending like a bench outfielder in the Guillermo Heredia mold.
Somerset Patriots (Yankees, AA)
Brandon Lockridge, CF, 35+ FV
FG Ranking: NYY #36
Line: 3-4; SB, 1 BB, 1 K
Lockridge is in a similar mold (in terms of the profile) as Zach Watson. A highly athletic but undersized hitter that can really run. His defense in center is excellent, though his arm is fringe-average and he struggled to come in on a line drive early in the game. Lockridge is showing more power this year and that's something to keep an eye on moving forward. Lockridge didn't have a truly hard-hit ball among his three hits and wasn't really tested with high-end velocity in this game. Lockridge will be eligible for the Rule V draft this coming winter and I could see him being selected if the Yankees choose not to protect him. He profiles as a 4th/5th outfielder but seems to be on an upward trajectory in his 2nd full pro season.
Oswald Peraza, SS, 50 FV
Line: 0-4; 1 BB, 2 K
This was a tough look for Peraza. He struggled in his first couple of at-bats with breaking stuff and ended up with an "o-fer" and 2 K's. Peraza did better in his plate appearance in the 7th inning as he worked his way back from an 0-2 count, laid off 4 pitches low and out of the zone, and worked a walk. Peraza also swung through/fouled some juicy pitches in the upper part of the zone and didn't seem to be timing things all night. He's barely 21 and more than holding his own in AA and looks smooth at shortstop. Peraza looks like a low-end regular to me with the chance for more if he can start doing consistent damage to fastballs in the zone. Despite the rough game, he showed a solid approach and good in-game adjustments, positive signs for his offensive future.
Oswaldo Cabrera, 3B, 40+ FV
FG Ranking: NYY #14
Line: 1-4; 2B, 1 K
The Yankees marketing team needs to start brainstorming ideas to capitalize on the Oswald and Oswaldo phenomenon. I had never heard of Cabrera before this winter so this was a perfect opportunity to acquaint myself. I was impressed by his well-proportioned strength. He's on the smaller size at 5'10 but unlike the previously mentioned Zach Watson and Brandon Lockridge, Cabrera is thicker with more projectable power/strength. Cabrera swings hard and does an excellent job of getting his lower half involved in his swing which allows him to impact the ball to all fields. He doubled to the left-center gap and hit another ball hard the other way that was caught at the wall in left field. The swing decisions in this viewing were very good and he aggressively attacked pitches that he could do damage with. Compared to Peraza, there is certainly more opportunity to hit for power in the pros but without the smoothness and athleticism at the plate and in the field. There is a chance here for a solid average hit tool or better with average or better power. Cabrera played third base and looked fine there. He's spent time at both second base and shortstop this year but it's highly likely that either second or third base will be the final landing spot. Cabrera's a sneaky good prospect who I think deserves a bit more attention. He's performing slightly above average offensively in AA as a 22 year old and doesn't have many red flags in the profile. With more consistent power he could be a regular somewhere on the dirt in the majors.
Dermis Garcia, DH, 35 FV
FG Ranking: NYY Prospect of Note
Line: 2-4; 3B, HR, 1 K
The 2014 Yankees IFA class has been a massive disaster with Garcia being the headliner. Garcia received a signing bonus north of $3,000,000 and was the Yankees prized signing during that period. His prospect ranking has had an inverse relationship with his ascent through the minors. He's a stiff athlete at the plate with a swing that completely sells out for power. He's able to hit massive homers and I'm sure his max exit velos are excellent, but the rest of his offensive game is rough. The combination of Garcia and teammate Michael Beltre (who I think rates higher than Garcia) in the middle of the Somerset Patriots lineup is impressive physically, but neither seem to have the hands/bat control to handle quality pitching and breaking stuff. Garcia has been a DH for all but 5 games this year and he isn't a graceful mover on the bases. All of his production/value will need to come at the plate. Garcia's raw power is near an 80 grade and there is a longshot chance of a Chris Carter type career path. As of 8/16, Garcia has 24 homers and a .292 ISO to go with a sub .200 average and 40%+ K rate. He's not a "non-prospect" just yet but he's certainly trending that way.
Shawn Semple, RHP, No Grade
FG Ranking: Unranked
Line: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 HR
Semple was a really nice surprise during this game. Sturdy build at 6'1/220. He followed the Severino/Peralta rehab appearances with 4.2 innings of quality pitching. Semple was an 11th round pick by the Yankees in 2017 out of the University of New Orleans. He's been a starter throughout his pro career but probably profiles better as a 1-2 inning reliever. Semple is 25 years old and will be 26 prior to the start of the 2022 season.
Semple featured a quality fastball in the 93-94 MPH range and he held that velocity throughout his start. Semple hit 95 MPH twice and reached back for a 97 MPH reading once. His fastball features what looks to be some late-life with rising action when thrown at the top of the zone. The majority of his strikeouts came on the high fastball as hitters were late and swinging under the ball. Semple also showed a slider that was above average at times but was hit hard when he failed to locate it effectively. Semple also threw a few changeups that were fringe-average but usable.
Semple looks like the type of college starter to pro reliever conversion arm that the Yankees have done very well with (Adam Warren, Chad Green, and Garrett Whitlock are good examples) in the recent past. If he can start showing a tick more velocity (94-97) in shorter outings, Semple will have a consistent plus fastball with real batting missing qualities. He has feel for spin/his offspeed pitches that could play above their grades with the way his fastball gets whiffs. He wasn't listed on the Yankees prospect list over at Fangraphs but with his solid stuff and AA performance, I think he's worthy of a 35+ FV grade as he's a likely pro contributor in a middle relief role. Don't be surprised to see Semple in the majors sometime within the next year.
Aberdeen Ironbirds (Orioles, High A)
Jordan Westburg, SS, 45 FV
FG Ranking: BAL #8
Line: 2-6; 2 K, 1 Error
I was really excited to see Westburg in person as this was my first chance to see him since he was drafted out of Mississippi State. Westburg was taken 30th overall last year and I had him ranked 38th on my personal board. Westburg has a pro body and is well built at 6'3/205. Westburg's ability to square and barrel balls is extremely impressive. He hit the ball hard all night and went up the middle often with his contact. It's a very short, compact swing that is geared more for line drives than big over-the-fence power. I think he'll be able to hit for a good amount of power because of the combination of bat speed and physical strength. There is some mild concern here regarding his ability to lift the ball consistently. He had opportunities in this game to drive bad pitches but ended up with hard contact on the ground. Westburg also showed some swing and miss on fastballs up in the zone that should be monitored moving forward.
Defensively, Westburg looked OK at shortstop. Nothing he did stands out and he did make an error on a relatively routine groundball. His movements there look the part and he will probably be average defensively at the MLB level when you account for defensive positioning.
Westburg doesn't have a standout tool which might be a concern for some. But his track record of performing both as a college player in the SEC and now in the pros (Westburg is currently sporting a .860+ OPS at High A) with shortstop defense eases those concerns for me. I had him as a 40+ FV prospect at the time of the 2020 draft and would feel comfortable bumping him up to a 45 or 45+ FV now. If he performs this way at the upper levels of the minors, Westburg would likely start to garner top 100 consideration.
JD Mundy, DH, No Grade
FG Ranking: Unranked
Line: 2-4; 2B, 1 BB
Mundy is too old for the High A level. I was familiar with him because he played an everyday role with Virginia Tech before transferring to Radford. Mundy was an elite performer at Radford with an OPS above 1.000 in 2019-2020 combined. He would have likely been drafted late on day 2 or at some point on day 3 of the draft had it not been shortened to 5 rounds. Mundy signed with the Orioles after the draft and has run a .900+ OPS in 2021. Mundy probably isn't a "real" prospect but there is some legit pull side power here. He's limited defensively to first base but was the DH on this night. He's not a good athlete and doesn't have an ideal/projectable build at 6'0/210. But there's big strength-based power that he's been able to get into games to date with a manageable level of swings and misses/strikeouts. It's not worth getting excited over Mundy by any means, he needs to get tested at a higher level. But he's someone to keep an eye on. Older, corner prospects tend to get underrated even when they perform for long stretches. Mundy could be one of those guys but we'll have to wait and see.
UPDATE: Both Westburg and Mundy were promoted to AA as I was writing this piece. They'll match up against the Erie SeaWolves who are the Tigers AA affiliate.
Gunnar Henderson, 3B, 50 FV
Line: 0-5; 2 K
While Mundy is too old for High A, Henderson is on the younger end of the spectrum. Henderson was the 42nd overall pick in the 2019 draft and is currently ranked as the Orioles' 5th best prospect. This is Henderson's first full season in pro ball after the 2020 minor league season was canceled. He destroyed Low A pitching at Delmarva and quickly advanced to Aberdeen as a 20-year-old. So far, Henderson has struggled with Aberdeen but isn't embarrassing himself by any means. This was a tough viewing as Henderson struck out twice and swung through some very hittable pitches in the strike zone. On the plus side, he looks poised at the plate with a controlled swing and a good idea of what pitches he can do damage with. Henderson received an aggressive assignment and will likely need a little bit of time to adjust to a higher level of pitching. There is still a good amount of physical projection remaining and he has the type of body that I expect to age well over time. He has a .667 OPS with Aberdeen that includes a 13.4% BB rate, a 30% K rate, and a .158 ISO.
Henderson played third base on this viewing and has split his time between third and short with Aberdeen. Henderson looked very good at third with excellent instincts, smooth actions, and a plus arm. I have no idea how he's performed at shortstop this year but he's a potential plus defender at third for me.
Hudson Haskin, CF, 40 FV
FG Ranking: BAL #25
Line: 0-3; 1 BB, 1 HBP, 2 K
Haskin was someone I really liked during the 2020 draft cycle. He was 78th overall on my board and ended up being selected 39th overall which was much earlier than I expected. Haskin didn't have much of a track record at Tulane because he was a draft eligible sophomore with just 1 full season of D1 experience under his belt. Haskin finished his Tulane career with an OPS above 1.000. Like with Westburg, I was happy to get the chance to see another recently drafted player in person.
I think this was a good reminder of the limitations that one has when judging a player through games on TV compared to in person. For me, seeing a player in person is extremely helpful in getting an idea of what they are like physically. Haskin's size was a big surprise for me as he looked way smaller than I expected. Obviously, I knew he was on the smaller side when watching him during games at Tulane, but it really stood out for me in person. Seeing Zach Watson play just two days before was fortuitous as it provided a really good body comp for Haskin. I may have ranked Haskin lower on my 2020 board had I seen him in person prior to the draft.
Haskin has a smaller, narrow frame and I have trouble believing his current 6'2/200 listing. That said, Haskin has legit quick-twitch athleticism to go with some wiry strength. At the plate, Haskin is loose and quick to the ball with at least above-average bat speed. His swing has always been a bit wonky and that was true on this night. He doesn't have the natural loft/vertical swing you look for right now and he seems to have a little trouble with pitches up in the zone. Haskin was challenged up there all night and wasn't able to make pitchers pay. This is obviously a concern moving forward as is his below-average performance in High A. Haskin is currently sporting a .699 OPS with 0 homers in 79 plate appearances for Aberdeen.
He looked really solid tracking balls in center which alleviates some of the tweener risk that players of his ilk come with. Like with Watson and Lockridge, Haskin profiles more like a 4th/5th outfield than a legitimate starter.
Garrett Stallings, RHP, 40 FV
FG Ranking: BAL #30
Line: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
One of my favorite things about following amateur prospects is seeing how they develop and progress in the pros. Whether that means seeing how a certain player's body changes or finding out that a guy has learned or mastered a new skill, it's interesting (and instructive) to track that over the years. It's also fun to see guys who remain almost nearly the same after being drafted. Stallings is in that second group. He was a weekend starter at Tennessee and performed well in 250 D1innings, adding a solid showing in the Cape Cod League for good measure. Stallings was drafted in the 5th round by the Angels in 2019 and ended up being traded to the Orioles in the Jose Iglesias deal. He was a FaBIO standout at Tennessee and had an excellent 106:16 K/BB ratio during his draft year.
Stallings doesn't stand out much physically and he doesn't have a go-to/stand-out pitch in his repertoire. He's a junk baller that survives on command and pitch sequencing. His delivery adds a layer of deception as well which might help explain his ability to generate weak groundball contact. Stallings gets low in his delivery with good extension off the mound. He hides the ball (and his arm) with a closed front side and minimal hip turn before releasing from a low 3/4 slot. There's a touch of crossfire to his delivery as well. It's a funky look and it suits him given the generic look of his repertoire. I'd be interested to see what the pitch data has to say about his extension and release height as those look to be strengths to the naked eye.
Stallings will use three offspeed pitches early and often as he looks to alter speeds and change eye levels. He got off to a rocky start but showed plus command over the following 4 innings. This is basically the same pitcher I saw perform at Tennessee. His fastball topped out at 92 and was mostly 88-90 across his 5 inning start. He mixed 4 pitches with the curveball looking like the best pitch overall. Stallings works quickly and looks like a pitcher with a well-thought-out plan for each hitter that comes to the plate. Seeing a pitcher perform without a dominant pitch is refreshing as it's something we don't typically see too often in the pros. Stallings is a pitcher who really makes the most out of his physical abilities to achieve results. The problem for Stallings is that he will always be walking a tight rope of sorts. He doesn't have the stuff to get away with mistakes often which means he will have to be closer to perfect with his command/pitchability than the average pro arm. The ceiling is limited as is but there is back-end starter potential. Stallings has already served up 12 homers (1.5 HR/9) with a 4.39 ERA at a minor league level that is below both his age level (24) and SEC experience.
Jersey Shore BlueClaws (Phillies, High A)
Logan O'Hoppe, C, 35 FV
FG Ranking: PHI Prospect of Note
Line: 1-3; 1 BB
O'Hoppe was an overslot signing ($215k signing bonus) in the 2018 draft as a New York prep. He was a nice surprise during his first taste of pro ball after signing but scuffled in 2019 at low A. He dropped down from a 35+ FV prospect to a "Prospect of Note" between 2020 and 2021 at Fangraphs, though he didn't actually play during that time. I think he's being underrated by Fangraphs. He's at least a 40 FV prospect in my opinion with a well-rounded skillset.
O'Hoppe looks the part physically at 6'2/185 with better than expected athleticism given his position. There is a ton of strength here, especially in his upper half and arms. I think he also has room to add strength in his lower half, though that may negatively affect his mobility as a catcher. He also has some big league tools with plus raw power, steady defense, and a 50/55 grade arm O'Hoppe didn't do anything spectacular at the plate but had some quality at bats and heads up play on the bases and behind the dish. Dominic Pipkin really made O'Hoppe work early in this game and he was able to stay poised and steady. He's a raw overall prospect but that is to be expected considering the lost 2020 season and his northeast prep background. With plus power and a real shot to stick as a catcher, O'Hoppe is one of the better position prospects in the Phillies system. He's still a good distance away from the majors but is moving in the right direction.
D.J. Stewart, 3B, No Grade
FG Ranking: Unranked
Line: 1-4, 2B, 2 K
Back when the draft was 40 rounds there would always be a couple of high school players that ended up signing even though they were drafted in 35-40 round range. Stewart was one of those guys in 2017 when the Phillies drafted and signed him as a 39th rounder. He spent 2017 and 2018 in rookie ball, 2019 in short-season A, and then had his 2020 season canceled. This has been Stewart's first foray into full season ball and he's spent time at both Low and High A. His physicality and strength stood out to me and there is all fields power in his bat. He nearly hit a grand slam the opposite way that ended up being a 2 run double in the right-center field gap.
Stewart struggled to identify and make contact with spin which is probably enough of a problem to prevent him from being considered as a "real" prospect. He's a VERY deep sleeper that has the physical attributes you look for but without the plate skills that translate to success at higher levels. Prospects like Stewart are the ones that were most harmed by that lost 2020 season. Beyond the age-related factors, those are lost experiences and reps that can never truly be replaced. The 22 year old corner infielder has a .764 OPS this year with 12 homers.
Dominic Pipkin, RHP, 40+ FV
FG Ranking: PHI #21
Line: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
Pipkin was a "Shadow Giants" pick for me in the 9th round of the 2018 draft. The Phillies signed him out of a California high school and gave him an $800,000 signing bonus. When I saw that Pipkin would be facing some high-quality bats I jumped at the opportunity to see him throw.
During his draft year, Pipkin was viewed as a highly athletic and projectable arm but he had trouble maintaining his stuff and struggled to throw consistent strikes. Pipkin's stuff took a jump forward as a pro and the questions regarding his fastball velocity have been pushed aside. He's filled out a bit physically but still has room to pack on some strength. He's a lanky pitcher and a well above average athlete. Pipkin came out of the game with big fastball velocity at 95-96 and was 94-96 throughout. He blew fastballs by Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, and Hudson Haskin in the 1st inning all on swinging strike 3's. He also allowed a double, hit a batter and walked a batter on 4 pitches. It was a Jekyll and Hyde first inning but the fastball was explosive.
Pipkin's control got away from him in the 2nd inning and he failed to record three outs. I watched him closely during warmups and he struggled to find a consistent release point. That continued when the inning commenced and he seemed to be throwing with more effort and more head movement than the inning before. Pipkin allowed the first two batters to reach via 4 pitch walk. He then threw the ball away twice while trying to pick off runners on the bases. His day was done after he allowed a couple of singles, another walk, and finally, a walk that forced in a run. Pipkin retired just two batters in that 2nd inning. His final line was ghastly with 3 hits, 5 walks, a hit batter, and 2 throwing errors.
This start was about as bad as it gets for a starting pitching prospect. It would be unfair (and incorrect) to base my opinion of Pipkin solely on this outing. There are encouraging elements here with the development of a legit bat missing fastball being the main one. He also flashed a pretty good changeup that might be an out pitch if he throws it more. Pipkin is still only 21 and is on an upward trajectory but it's looking more like a relief profile. He really only has two pitches currently and his command/control (likely because of mechanical issues) are works in progress. Pipkin has a BB/9 above 4 this year and his ERA over his last 6 starts is north of 5.00. I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies treat him with kid gloves the rest of the way as he might be hitting a wall physically. He's at 58 innings this year and is coming off a full-year layoff.
Mark Potter, RHP, No Grade
FG Ranking: Unranked
Line: 2 IP, 1 H, 2 K
Potter's stuff looked better than his stat line indicates. He's a massive dude and looks every bit of his listed 6'6/280 body. Potter looks imposing on the mound but probably needs to firm up his body as he's a bit thick considering his age (he's 23). Potter sat 92-95 and topped out at 96 during two scoreless innings of relief. He was aggressive in the zone with his fastball and mixed in a decent breaking ball that he was able to throw for strikes. He recorded 2 K's and 4 whiffs in this outing but with more control than command. His season line has been really bad which is surprising given his stuff. His ERA is over 10.00 in 24.2 innings and he's allowed 38 hits and 9 homers. He's far from being a prospect but he looked good during this outing so I decided to include him here.
Erubiel Armenta, LHP, No Grade
FG Ranking: Unranked
Line: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 2 K
Armenta was an international signing by the Phillies out of Mexico. The 21 year old lefty has some arm strength from the left side with some rising action on his fastball. He came on in relief but failed to make it through a full inning. He's a lanky pitcher at 6'3/180 who might be able to add some power to his body over the next couple of years. Armenta is a max effort pitcher who struggled to find the zone on this night. He currently has 14 walks in 15 innings pitched this year. Armenta's fastball was 92-93 and he K'd Jordan Westburg on a 94 MPH fastball up in the zone. Armenta also showed a solid changeup which gives him a nice two-pitch combo that can play against both righty and lefty bats. He has 20 grade command and is more of a thrower than a pitcher. But Armenta is a fairly fresh arm (he was signed in 2019 and didn't pitch on a pro mound before this year) and only 21 years old. This signals to me that further development is probable. He's another deep sleeper prospect for a Phillies system that lacks system depth.
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