Last year, Roger Munter (@rog61;There R Giants) hit me up and asked me to work with him on Prospect Live's inaugural live/community style mock draft. I, along, with Marc Delucchi @maddelucchi teamed up with Roger to make 5 selections for our beloved San Francisco Giants. You can find more info on that experience HERE. A quick recap on who we ended up with:
#13: Cole Wilcox, rhp, University of Georgia
#49: Jared Jones, rhp, La Mirada HS California
#67: Alejandro Rosario, rhp, Miami Christian HS Florida
#68: Alex Santos, rhp, Mount St. Michael HS New York
#85: Blaze Jordan, 1b, DeSoto Central HS Mississippi
We accumulated a collection of high upside, potential impact major leaguers. We followed our board and took the players we valued the most. As happy as I was (and still am) with those results you can make a strong argument that the realism factor wasn't there.
Moving on to 2021. Roger contacted me and asked if I was willing to "take the reigns" for the 2021 version of the Prospects Live Mock Draft. I eagerly accepted the opportunity and was ready to get to work again. I made sure to keep in contact with Roger and Marc in the days leading up to the draft as their expertise on Giants prospects and Giants draft trends are elite. I decided to focus more on "realism" this year. I put aside my own personal rankings/board and tried to put myself in the shoes of the Giants brain trust. Later, Prospects Live sent out info on their mock draft process and indicated they were striving for realism as well, to which I said "Perfect."
One major change from the 2020 draft to the 2021 version was the number of picks. Last year the Giants were blessed with 5 selections before the end of the 3rd round. This year? Just two. I was going to need to make those picks count and be wary of my new bonus pool limitations.
The Giants have stuck to a pretty consistent model under the Farhan Zaidi regime. Here's who they have taken with their top 2 picks the past couple of years:
2019
#10: Hunter Bishop, outfielder, Arizona State
#51: Logan Wyatt, first base, Louisville
2020
#13: Patrick Bailey, catcher, North Carolina State
#49: Casey Schmitt, third base, San Diego State
Important to note that the Giants' "extra picks" from 2020 that preceded the 3rd round were also college players (Nick Swiney and Jimmy Glowenke). And if you want to stretch things out to 2018 (Pre-Zaidi) the Giants took two more college players (Joey Bart and Sean Hjelle) with their 1st and 2nd round picks. Talk about being consistent. They have targeted hitters who get on base (Schmitt was the only college hitter with an OBP under .400 in his draft year, and even his was over .380), are young for their college class, and are willing to sign for "under slot" meaning they signed for less money than the allotted bonus pool amount for that pick. HERE is a link to 2021's bonus slots for those interested. That last part is important and is something I wanted to consider for my picks in this mock. Saving money with those early picks in 2019 and 2020 allowed the Giants to take "over slot" players later in the draft. In 2019 their major over-slot signing was Trevor McDonald and in 2020 that player was Kyle Harrison. McDonald and Harrison are two of the higher upside pitchers in the Giants system with Harrison already getting consideration towards the back end of many publication's top 100 prospects list. Although the 3rd round wasn't included in this year's Prospects Live mock draft I'll go over my hypothetical 3rd round pick at the end. Spoiler Alert: He's a high schooler.
THE PROCESS
I didn't make a formal board for this mock. I did take an inventory of the players at the top of the draft and did some loose structuring. I'll explain that part a bit later. There was a contingent of players I was practically certain would not be available by the time I picked at 14th overall. I called this group "THE NINE":
Hitters: Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Henry Davis, Sal Frelick
Pitchers: Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe
Then there was a group of players that I felt had a low chance of being available, but not quite as low as THE NINE. I called these guys the "MAYBE, BABIES":
Hitters: Matt McLain
Pitchers: Ty Madden, Sam Bachman
After removing those guys from consideration, I was left with a collection of players I could reasonably expect to be available and would also make at least some level of sense for the Giants:
Hitters: Harry Ford, Benny Montgomery, Colton Cowser
Pitchers: Gunnar Hoglund, Ryan Cusick, Will Bednar, Bubba Chandler
The next step was to rank this group of players with realism always in mind. Some notes:
- Harry Ford was the top player left on my board (#9). He is one of my favorite prospects in this draft. The realism factor felt low to me. Still does. However, the Giants brass has some serious love for catchers which puts him in the conversation to a certain degree.
- Benny Montgomery makes the list because there have been some connections between him and the Giants. He's 18th on my board overall and has some Hunter Pence/Jayson Werth qualities to him. He obviously isn't a college player but the team connection adds a layer of realism.
- I guess you can call me a Colton Cowser doubter. He's lower on my board (#20) than most of the other rankings I've seen. He's a clear 1st rounder and has done nothing but hit since high school. I have concerns about the quality of competition he's faced, his inability to pull and lift the ball, his pedestrian exit velocity numbers, and his future defensive position. That being said, Cowser really fits the Giants mold. He's a college performer that gets on base and is young for the class. He has elite plate discipline, contact rates, and swing decision metrics. The body is projectable and is already plenty strong. Cowser may only be a swing change away from unlocking 20+ home run power. So even if he's not a centerfielder, that level of power would play in a corner. I still think there are more questions around Cowser than many are willing to admit, but he's a very good fit for the Giants in the 1st round.
- You would have to spend a long time searching for someone that didn't believe Gunnar Hoglund (#13) was worthy of a top 10 pick prior to his elbow injury. Had Hoglund not required TJ surgery, I think it's safe to say Hoglund goes in the 6-10 overall range. Hoglund isn't a college hitter, but he was an elite college performer this entire spring. He also has a lengthy track record of being very good which can't be said for someone like LSU's Jaden Hill. The value that Hoglund would represent at 14th overall was too significant to ignore even though he wasn't a bat.
- Ryan Cusick (#15) and Will Bednar (#21) are high variance college arms that I could see the Giants being interested in. Cusick has been a popular mock choice for the Giants at various stages of the 2021 draft cycle. Bednar is dominant at times and his pitch data is phenomenal. His track record is short and he has been a bit inconsistent this season. He also has had some health issues in the past and has only 15 starts in his college career. Both need to be considered, but these are two types of pitchers the Giants have been willing to pass on over the last two years. Alek Manoah, Jackson Rutledge, and Cade Cavalli are some recent examples.
-I felt Bubba Chandler needed to be included for the same reason as Montgomery. The Giants have had some heat in to see Chandler during the spring. I have him farther down my board at #24 but the Giants connection makes him relevant.
After considering all this information I set up a tier system rather than a traditional board. I threw in the MAYBE, BABIES for good measure:
Tier 1:
1a. Colton Cowser, of, Sam Houston State
1b. Gunnar Hoglund, rhp, Ole Miss
Tier 2:
-In no set order: Ty Madden, rhp; Benny Montgomery, of; Bubba Chandler, rhp
Tier 3:
In no set order: Matt McLain, ss; Harry Ford, c
Tier 4:
In no set order: Ryan Cusick, rhp; Sam Bachman, rhp; Will Bednar
After THE NINE there would only be 4 picks/players that remained unaccounted for. This essentially meant that I would be selecting a player within the top two tiers. If by some miracle one of THE NINE dropped to me, that player would be the pick.
I really didn't have a clue who would be around for my 2nd pick. I figured I would start building a list as the draft went on. The type of players I'd target would be nearly identical to the 1st round. Same methodology. A different set of players.
THE DRAFT
The order of the players selected with the top 4 picks wasn't what I expected but sure enough, 4 members of THE NINE went off the board. And then things got weird . . .
Not only did one of THE NINE get passed on, but my #1 option was also off the board with 8 picks to go before my turn! Not great Bob.
I wasn't panicking by any means. The tiers I made were solid and I stood by them. But I was a Gunnar Hoglund pick away from losing both my top-tier choices early in the mock.
The Cowser Pick
The Orioles selection of Colton Cowser was met with a significant amount of criticism. Most of that came from the viewers that were active in the youtube chat and some folks over on Twitter. I just want to say that the Cowser pick, while not being my personal preference by a longshot, is completely defensible. Are people's memories that short? The Orioles took Heston Kjerstad 2nd overall last year when very few people expected him to go in the top 10. That pick was a cost-saver that allowed them to snag talented preps Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler. The Orioles don't end up with both of those players without taking Kjerstad. You can make a good argument that this strategy isn't a good one. I personally don't like it this early in the draft. But it happened! There is no reason why it can't happen again and Cowser feels like a reasonable target for this type of thing. The Orioles' 2nd selection of prep outfielder James Wood works well in tandem with their 1st pick. Calling this pick/strategy unrealistic is flat-out incorrect.
Inching Toward #14
Two more members of THE NINE go back-to-back. Then a MAYBE, BABY to the Rockies, with Sam Bachman being the choice. Knowing a bit about Matt, the GM for the Rockies in this mock, I had a strong feeling that he would be going with either Sam Bachman or Ty Madden. With Bachman gone, that meant Madden could drop to my spot. The fall for Kahlil Watson (#3 on my board and Brady House (#6) ended in quick succession. Sal Frelick (#8) was the final member of THE NINE remaining. He lasted a bit longer as the Nationals chose to roll with Ty Madden (#11).
With 11 picks in the bag, I was looking at 2 more picks ahead of me with Frelick and Gunnar Hoglund still on the board. My fear was that the Mariners would take Hoglund, The Mariners have spent a lot of draft capital on college pitching in recent years (Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock) and even drafted a TJ pitcher relatively early with Levi Stoudt in 2019. If Hoglund went next I was extremely doubtful the Phillies would then pass on Sal Frelick. That would clear out my top tier, end my last hope of getting one of THE NINE, and would limit me to just Montgomery or Chandler from my tier 2. Not ideal.
The Mariners ultimately went with Frelick. Hoglund just needed to get past the Phillies and I would have my guy. I was expecting them to take Benny Montgomery, but their GM popped Matt McLain. Fine by me.
Selecting Gunnar Hoglund
Gunnar Hoglund was the 36th overall pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2018. He was a projectable righty with some inconsistent velocity but with other tools that were very advanced. Hoglund was a premier strike thrower in the 2018 high school class with both breaking ball and changeup feel. Surprisingly, Hoglund did not sign with the Pirates as he chose to honor his commitment to Ole Miss. He wouldn't be eligible to be drafted again until 2021.
His first season at Ole Miss wasn't great. But he had flashes of promise and he made 16 starts during his freshman year in the SEC. He finished with an ERA of 5.29 over 68 innings with 53 K's, 14 BB's, and 7 homers allowed. Overall, he had issues maintaining the quality of his stuff and would be sitting in the high 80s during starts with a breaking ball that lacked consistent bite. 2020 was better. He gave up just 3 earned runs in 4 starts and started looking like a pitcher rounding into form. Then the season was canceled as was the Cape Cod League, the premier summer wood bat league that follows the spring season. But Hoglund came on strong in 2021. He looked more physical, well-built, and mature than he had in the past. He was up to 96 in several outings and would hold 92+ throughout starts. The brief glimpse of dominance we saw in 2020 was being reinforced weekend after weekend. Gunnar Hoglund had arrived. In a draft where college bats struggled, it seemed like Hoglund was destined for the top of the draft. A righty with starter traits, an SEC track record, and a high floor tends to do well on draft day.
Brutal. An all too common occurrence that still manages to gut punch you when you hear about it. This came only weeks after Jaden Hill blew out his elbow. But Hoglund has a couple of things going for him that Hill doesn't. Hoglund has performed over a much larger amount of innings and he performed as a starting pitcher. The track record Hoglund built and the pedigree that dates back to his high school days are, in my opinion, strong enough to get him drafted in the 1st round this year. I would be surprised if he lasted past the teens. At 14, he was a no-brainer for me. I made the point on the broadcast that Farhan Zaidi was part of the Dodgers organization when they selected TJ victim Walker Buehler.
How did that work out?
Hoglund will miss a good chunk of 2022. But as he recovers and rehabs he has an opportunity to build up his body (which can still firm up a bit) and get to work on the development plan that the Giants pitching dev. team has laid out for him.
The value the Giants get here is huge. Even with the TJ surgery, Hoglund's floor is very high. He would have likely been a 50 FV had he powered through the rest of the 2021 season. Here are my grades for Hoglund:
You can see what I mean when I say the floor is high. 4 pitches, 1 a plus, 1 that can be above average, and possibly plus command. That's a major league starter. But think about what we recently saw with Kyle Harrison and even Caleb Kilian. A bunch of the pitchers the Giants have drafted in recent years experience a velocity boost after joining the Giants organization. It's not something that I "expect" to happen, but it's certainly a possibility. Gunnar Hoglund holding a mid 90s fastball is a different animal. With the secondaries, the command, the mechanical efficiency, and the pitchability we are talking about a potential top of the rotation arm. I think that would be an attractive option for the Giants at 14th overall. Hoglund is also 21.06 years old. Not super young, but definitely age-appropriate when you consider the Giants' past tendencies. It may not be the eventual pick on July 11th, but it's certainly a possibility. I'm happy with this pick and I was relieved that one of my top-tier options fell in my lap.
ROUND 2 . . . FIGHT!
I had a long wait before I would be picking again. Over 30 players would be taken before my 2nd crack at things. I waited for things to develop before building up my next list of players. The top player I thought had SOME hope of dropping to me, that also fit with my plan was Eastern Illinois shortstop Trey Sweeney (#29). I knew that the GMs for the Blue Jays and the Tigers were in on him quite a bit. The Blue Jays picked shortly after me at #19 while the Tigers picked twice at #32 and #39 overall. Sweeney got by the Blue Jays. He was more than halfway through the '20s before . . .
Bummer. What are you going to do? This is a smart group of guys. Every pick was thought out and well researched. On to the next.
I would say that right around pick 38 or 39 is when I started to build my list. Here are some of the college bats that I felt made sense and were still available:
Corner Infield: Alex Binelas
Middle Infield: Ryan Bliss, Cody Morissette, Peyton Wilson, Spencer Schwellenbach
Outfield: Ethan Wilson, John Rhodes, Christian Franklin, Reed Trimble
As much as some of these players made sense for the Giants, there were a couple I really didn't want to draft. I'm looking at you Alex Binelas and Adrian Del Castillo. They were out. Players like Christian Franklin, Hunter Goodman, and Nathan Hickey made some sense but didn't feel very Giants-y for one reason or another. Out they went. After cutting this group down a smidge I went to work on some more tiers. Here's what I came up with:
Tier 1
1a. Ethan Wilson
1b. Ryan Bliss/Spencer Schwellenbach
1c. Peyton Wilson/Luca Tresh/Matheu Nelson
Tier 2
In no set order: John Rhodes, Cody Morissette, Reed Trimble
Tier 3
The previously excluded group of Del Castillo, Hickey, Goodman, Binelas, and Franklin. These players would act as my emergency backups in case I lost out on the other tiers. I was fairly confident I wouldn't have to dip lower than the 1st tier so this wasn't a scenario I was putting much thought into.
By pick 46, two players in my top tier were off the board. Ethan Wilson went 40th to the Red Sox and Ryan Bliss went 46th to the Mets.
After the selection of Bliss, I was leaning towards Spencer Schwellenbach, one of the more unique players in the 2021 draft. With only 3 picks before my turn, I was guaranteed at least one player in my top tier so I cut bait on the tier 2 and tier 3 groupings. This left:
Luca Tresh, catcher, NC State
Tresh is an NC State catcher so I had to include him by default. He certainly fits what the Giants have done recently but he wasn't someone I was thrilled with taking. The power is massive and he's turned himself into a really solid backstop. He also hasn't hit for months and is extremely susceptible to breaking stuff in the dirt and off the plate away. It's a flaw that has persisted since at least the end of April.
Matheu Nelson, catcher, Florida State
One of the top power hitters in the country. Nelson blasted 23 homers this spring and took his offensive game to a completely new level in 2021. His swing decisions are below average but he can still impact pitches in tough areas. The defense is a mixed bag for me. His receiving isn't great and though he is a high effort/high energy defender behind the plate, he's a bit stiff and I am concerned with how nimble he can remain behind the plate. The arm is good, no questions there. But I think he's a fringy catcher with swing and miss issues. Power hitting catchers certainly go in this area but I'm lukewarm. Certainly a worthy 2nd/3rd rounder, but not someone I feel comfortable taking just yet.
Spencer Schwellenbach, ss/rhp, Nebraska
- Schwellenbach is a two-way player at Nebraska. There's some debate as to what side of the ball he profiles better on as a pro. He's 93-99 MPH out of the pen with flashes of a very good breaking ball. He threw strikes and even showed the potential for a changeup. You could try him out as a starter or fast-track him through the pen. As of now, it sounds like teams are starting to prefer him on the mound.
I intended to draft him as a hitter. He might not be a solid average shortstop as a pro, but he can play there a good amount while filling in all over the diamond. He's a great athlete with an elite baseball IQ and the instincts to match. No worries from me on the defensive side.
He had a good year with the bat at Nebraska. Nothing earth-shattering, but a quality campaign where he did a little bit of everything. The big knock with Schwellenbach is the power and quality of contact. He had a bunch of nagging injuries during his first couple of years at Nebraska and I believe that played a big role in his inability to hit for power. He started showing some more pop this year and I think there's untapped power to be had. A permanent focus on hitting certainly wouldn't hurt.
A common criticism of Schwellenbach is that he doesn't show enough on the mound to project as an impact pitcher and doesn't drive the ball enough to profile as an everyday starter. That sounds eerily familiar to me. Can you think of someone similar? Big Ten performer. Two-way player. Questionable power at the plate. Questionable defensive home. Limited ceiling as a pitcher. Who could it be? Hmm . . .
That dude might be an all-star this year. It's June 26th and he's at 2.7 fWAR already in 2021. He can play pretty much any position on the field minus catcher. He's Jake Cronenworth. Cronenworth was a 7th round pick by the Rays in 2015 out of the University of Michigan. He was the "other guy" in the Rays-Padres trade that featured Tommy Pham. This is the kind of player you hope Schwellenbach can become at the pro level. A do-it-all hitter that can provide value in a multitude of ways while also being highly versatile on defense. And if at the end of the day Schwellenbach doesn't hit, you give pitching another go.
But then something happened. I was messaging back and forth with Giants Prospective through most of the mock draft. He's a passionate Giants fan and someone that provides a lot of great insight. Not long after Ryan Bliss went off the board he asked "how about . . . Zavala".
I completely overlooked Aaron Zavala. He's farther down my board (I'll be moving him up for my final July board) but someone that really makes sense for the Giants. I thought it over.
College bat? CHECK
Performer? .392/.525/.628, 1.154 OPS. CHECK
Gets on base? 50 walks, .525 OBP, 19% walk rate. CHECK
Model-friendly age? 21.01 years old on draft day. CHECK
Aaron Zavala ladies and gents.
Zavala's batted ball numbers are fantastic. High exit velos, good swing decisions, the ability to use the whole field. There's plus raw power here. The batting eye is excellent, sometimes too passive, but he is excellent at waiting for his pitch and playing to his strengths. Zavala is great at working counts and isn't afraid to hit with two strikes. He's starting to get more attention now, but Zavala flew under the radar most of the year. All he did was hit.
The defensive side of things is a bit trickier. I announced him as a third baseman. I don't have a ton of confidence in him working out there, but he has experience at the hot corner and has the arm for it. Why not give it a shot? I think you can also try him at second base and have him Max Muncy his way to usefulness. The fallback is corner outfield, the position where he spent all his time at this spring. He's . . . not great in right field. At least not now, but he also didn't play there much prior to this year. He might be a left fielder only which puts pressure on the bat. That downside is enough to push him out of the 1st round even with his bat, but we've seen teams take these types of players before and worry about the defense later. The Dodgers did it with Michael Busch. The Yankees did it with Trevor Hauver. With enough experience, you can sometimes coax a passable level of defense. Again, Max Muncy.
Schwellenbach was the guy. At least until Giants Prospective came through in the clutch. If you are reading this I'd like to say thank you. Well . . . freaking . . . done!
GOT ANY OF THEM HIGH SCHOOLERS?
My night was done. 2 picks and that's all she wrote. But what was the plan for round 3? One word: preps!
As I mentioned earlier, the Giants saved a bit of money on both of their first two selections in 2019 and 2020. This savings was then spread elsewhere in the draft. Last year, prep lefty Kyle Harrison received nearly $2,500,000 as a 3rd round pick. The year before, the Giants used their bonus savings on multiple big bonus high schoolers. The first one of those players was Grant McCray, a prep outfielder taken in the 3rd round. That's 2 for 2 on Zaidi and scouting director Michael Holmes going prep in the 3rd round. I don't see why that can't continue in 2021 and this mock specifically. I don't have info on the asking prices for Hoglund and Zavala, but I think you can make an argument that both could be had at a slight discount in this mock scenario. That begs the question, who would I take?
Ryan Spikes was the top prep hitter available for me after the conclusion of the 2nd round. He's #37 on my board.
He does stuff like that. And he's done it for months dating back to last summer. Spikes is only 5'9/180 but absolutely scorches the ball. He's also a pretty good shortstop too. He's fast, twitchy, and is a smart baseball player. Most of the other guys on those two lists above aren't sticking up the middle as a pro. Spikes can and at worst he'll be solid at third base. Because guess what? He has a plus arm. He's into the low 90s on the mound and was the closer on his high school team.
THAT'S A WRAP
So here is what I ended up with after 2+1 rounds in the Prospects Live mock draft.
Gunnar Hoglund, right handed pitcher, University of Mississippi, 45 FV
Aaron Zavala, third base/outfield, University of Oregon, 40 FV
Ryan Spikes, shortstop, Parkview High School (GA), 40+ FV
Not bad. It's not what I would have done personally, but I really like this group. It splits the difference between realism and what I'd do pretty well. That was the goal all along. I'll take it. For those of you wondering what I "personally" would have done based on what was available to me, here are my picks:
Harry Ford, catcher, North Cobb High School (GA), 45+ FV
Christian Franklin, outfield, University of Arkansas, 45 FV
Ryan Spikes, shortstop, Parkview High School (GA), 40+ FV
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