As promised, here are writeups for the players that received grade changes this month. You can check out my May draft board HERE or use the nifty little widget below. Part 1 covers right handed pitchers. Part 2 will feature left handed pitchers and should be available tomorrow (5/27) or the day after. A post on hitters will follow shortly after the lefties and will likely be split up by position (infield/outfield). Hope you enjoy it! Thanks to all the hard-working draft folks for the videos and clips included in this post.
On the Rise
I've been cautious with my placement of Ryan Cusick this spring. I still don't see a future major league starter here. He has arguably the best two pitches in the draft with potential 70 grades on his fastball and breaking ball. Why am I moving him up now? Two reasons:
I've worked on recalibrating the way I value pitchers like Cusick this year. The reliance on relievers, multi-inning relievers, and "short starters" that go 3-4 innings every so often gigiveves pitchers like Cusick added value at the major league level. Quite simply, you can't disqualify a pitcher anymore from the 1st round because they don't profile as a typical 5+ inning pitcher. I'm looking at pitchers like White Sox righty Michael Kopech who aren't "starters' this year but can still provide ~100 high quality innings. I think most people would sign up for that level of talent/skill for 100 innings a year. That's where I see guys like Cusick making their living. And of course, there is still a non-zero chance he develops into a legitimate starting pitcher.
I checked back in on Sam Bachman during his start against West Virginia on 5/15. He showed upper 90s velocity most of the time and a 70 grade slider. His fastball did not play the way one would expect at that high level of velocity. His delivery/arm slot offers very little deception and didn't look "starter-y" to me. He's also had some injury concerns that date back to prior seasons. Bachman was at #16 last update and I still think he's a 1st round type arm. But how could I justify putting Bachman in the 1st round (he's at #21 now) while having Cusick in the 40s when I think their ultimate roles in the pros will largely be the same? They are much closer together in talent/value level than I originally believed so I decided to move Bachman down a tick while giving Cusick a boost that mirrors Bachman's final landing spot.
A lot of the uncertainty surrounding Bubba Chandler revolves around his commitment to play football at the University of Clemson. Chandler is not only a two-way talent on the baseball field, he is a legitimate two sport athlete. He is raw as a pitcher and the consistency of his secondary stuff isn't there yet. However, he has consistently hit the mid-90s during outings this spring and will flash above average or better offspeed pitches. Chandler's command comes and goes but his athleticism and the repeatability of his delivery give him a chance to greatly improve that aspect of his game. Getting Chandler signed will be a significant hurdle but his recent movement towards first round territory makes this doable. Some video HERE.
Chase Petty moved up to a 40+ before I saw him on 5/23. His start that night only solidified that decision as he impressed me over 7 innings. Pitching in front of a large contingent of MLB scouts, Petty showed mid 90s velocity throughout, touched 99, and finished his night with a 98 MPH fastball in the 7th. Petty doesn't have a typical pitcher's build at 6'1/180, but he shows quick-twitch athleticism and immense arm speed. He throws from a lower 3/4 slot with good arm whip. There is effort and some violence to the delivery. He did a good job keeping everything in sync despite the effort. Petty has worked on his delivery a lot over the past year or so and the arm speed and athleticism may allow him to do things on the mound that other young arms simply cannot. The way he incorporates his lower half in his delivery is excellent and is a big reason why I'm not any more concerned about potential injury with Petty than I am with any other prep arm. Petty's mechanics work quite well for him with the only drawback being that he doesn't project to have great command. But when you have stuff as good as Petty's, being pinpoint accurate isn't that necessary. Petty battled some control issues in the 1st inning but was throwing consistent strikes over the next 6 innings. He lost his release point a bit in the 4th inning but was able to work through it. The fastball was mostly 94-96 after the first couple innings and featured a ton of life and arm side run. The pitch also showed sinking action at times and overall it was a pitch that featured good movement that makes it hard to square consistently. Petty gave up a few hard-hit balls: a groundout to 1st base on a fastball, a line drive out to centerfield on a breaking ball, and a sac fly line out to center on a fastball. Balls in play were not common but were mostly non-threatening and never pulled. The hits he did give up were not hit sharply.
What really stood out to me was the slider. I had heard good things about the pitch before seeing him in person, but it was much better than I expected. The control/command of his slider was better than his fastball when I saw him. Petty used the pitch often and was comfortable throwing it in any count and any situation. He landed the pitch for first pitch strikes multiple times, showed the confidence to double up on the pitch, and he used it as an effective chase pitch. Petty's slider gets a ton of sweeping action and a decent amount of vertical movement as well. The pitch isn't just a sweeper though, he was throwing it hard. It sat around 84-85 and I don't remember seeing a velocity reading below 82. The vast majority of Petty's 13 strikeouts came courtesy of his slider. Simply put, the slider is a potential 70 pitch. There was only one lefty hitter in Don Bosco's lineup so I didn't get to see him try to backfoot the pitch. Regardless, Petty also threw a few solid changeups as well. He got a couple of whiffs on the pitch and it showed good downward, fading action. Because of the quality of his fastball/slider, that changeup might not be used much moving forward, but it's a good weapon to have, especially against lefty hitters. I also thought I saw a couple of curveballs but I didn't get a great read on them.
Petty is not the kind of high-velocity prep arm that is devoid of other tools. He is pretty advanced as a pitcher and his fastball/slider combo is elite. We know the history of prep righties in the draft as well as the history of prep righties who throw this hard. It's not good. That risk is not something I can completely cast aside which is why I'm keeping him at a 40+ FV. I'm really not worried about him turning into another Kolek but I think the chance of him being a reliever is significant. Petty is currently #33 on my board and I think he fits well in that 30-39 area. He's someone I'd love to be able to take with my 2nd pick and I'm sure many teams feel similarly. He makes an ideal target for teams in the comp round. Last year I had prep righty Jared Kelley as a 45 FV and ranked him #21 overall. In hindsight that was a tick too high. I'd probably put Petty ahead of Kelley right now but neither is a 45 for me. Petty also has some old-school grittiness to his game. He came to the plate wearing no batting gloves and wore high socks with stirrups. He looked like a kid who is committed to putting it all on the field and isn't afraid of the big moment. That's not something I feel comfortable grading, but I thought his style/demeanor was of some interest.
McGreevy only started focusing on pitching upon arrival at UC Santa Barbara. He has seen significant growth both in terms of his physical development and his development as a pitcher. McGreevy has always shown advanced command but is now showing the type of stuff that is worthy of top 3 round consideration. With the way pro pitcher development is currently, McGreevy is an ideal candidate to blossom further in pro ball. He currently shows a fastball in the mid 90s, two solid breaking balls, and a changeup that will need further development. The hope is that because McGreevy is a late bloomer and has a fresh arm he has more development/potential to grow than the average college arm.
The easy player comp for McGreevy is Shane Bieber. Bieber had a similar overall build/profile and was also the ace of UC Santa Barbara’s pitching staff in 2016. I don’t like getting in the habit of comparing draft prospects to Cy Young winners, but at the same time, I think it’s safe to say that McGreevy will do better than Bieber did (4th round) on draft day. He seems to be a popular pick towards the end of the 1st round or with teams who have extra picks in the comp/competitive balance round. McGreevy feels like one of those pitchers that everyone regrets passing on the moment a team ultimately selects him.
I've been slow to move Kudrna up this spring. Nothing against him, I just didn't see enough of Kudrna to justify slotting him in the top 100. His overall ranks are kind of all over the place. Usually, that means the prospect is divisive. I've seen him ranked in the top 30 and outside the top 100 altogether. I think that's mostly caused by outdated information as he's taken a lot of strides recently. I have him at #63, towards the end of the 40+ tier. You can absolutely argue putting him towards the first half of that tier (that would put him in the 31-45 range). I think he's more likely to be selected in that area compared to where I have him currently. If I do move him up, his likely draft position will be a heavy factor/reason for why I do so. He already showed an ideal body and an extremely clean and advanced delivery. But over the last year, and especially since the start of 2021, Kurdna's stuff has continued to progress. He's a projectable pitcher that is starting to put it all together at exactly the right time. He has three pitches that you can realistically project as plus. The shape and movement of his fastball aren't ideal, but I think that's something he will improve upon once he gets into pro ball. Kudrna is committed to LSU but I don't see him making it to campus. I really enjoyed listening to this convo that ProspectsLive (follow, like, subscribe) had with Kudrna a couple of months ago:
Another prep arm moves up for me simply because I looked at him more closely. Michael Morales has the body and delivery that I like to see from a high school arm. He's loose, strong, projectable, and a great athlete. He shows feel for his secondary pitches and really knows how to pitch. His consistency in his stuff and strike throwing are drawbacks but it sounds like he's taken a step forward with the command this spring. His velocity will drop into the high 80s but that should improve in short order. The secondaries already flash and he knows how to use them. The drawbacks for Morales are his age and his college commitment. He'll be 18.11 years old on draft day which is right around the area where I start to hesitate a bit. Morales is also committed to Vanderbilt which is one of the best schools in terms of getting their prospects to campus. I don't have any inside info on his signability but if I had to take an educated guess I'd imagine that he'd need to go somewhere in the top 2 or 3 rounds to turn pro.
Jackson Baumeister seems to get better each start this spring, answering a question every time he takes the mound. Baumeister profiles as one of the more well-rounded high school arms in the class. He's a two-way player and has received some draft interest as a catcher. Because of that, he came into the spring a bit more raw than some of the other high-ranked prep arms this year. But Baumeister has come along strong, showing increased velocity, better secondaries, and improved command. The results never matched the raw ability before but we are starting to see it now. I don't see any pitch that projects as a future plus weapon, but that could change if he continues to develop the way he has the past several months. Like Morales, Baumeister is older for the class and will be 19 on draft day. He also could lean towards college if Florida State is willing to let him pitch and hit on a regular basis. It's looking likely that Florida State will lose a good chunk of its starting lineup (Nelson, Martin, Cabell, etc.) after this year. That could open up a good deal of playing time for Baumeister on that side of the ball the moment he steps foot on campus. Some video from Keanan Lamb back in April.
I wrote about Bryce McGowan earlier this spring in my "Sleeper Pitchers" piece. The buzz surrounding him as we entered the 2021 college season was warranted as McGowan showed he can hold his newfound stuff over a large sample of innings. Outside of his strikeout totals (98 in 76.2 innings, 11.5/9), McGowan's overall stat line didn't jump off the page. He finished his season at Charlotte with a 3.99 ERA, a 5.8 BB/9, a 2.00 K/BB ratio, and allowed 8 homers. That's pretty light considering he's not in a power conference, though there is a healthy amount of quality lineups in Conference USA this year. McGowan's command and control certainly hold him back, but there may be future gains in that area as he becomes more comfortable with his new mechanics/pitch mix. Even without any significant improvement there, his stuff would play in a high leverage relief role. I would have been way more hesitant to put a 40 FV on a pitcher like McGowan this time two years ago. As I mentioned earlier with Cusick, I'm starting to reevaluate this type of pitcher. I see McGowan as a good fit in the 4-6 round territory this July.
The day before I saw Chase Petty strike out 13 batters on May 23rd, I saw Sean Hard dominate during his New Jersey state tournament game against Westwood. Both are supremely talented while also being very different pitchers. Hard has a long, lanky build with a high waist and a great deal of physical projection. He isn't the quick-twitch athlete that Petty is but he shows very impressive body control for a pitcher of his size. Hard is listed at 6'5/210 and his size really stands out on the mound. His delivery is smooth and repeatable. He works downhill with a drop-and-drive type delivery and a higher 3/4 arm slot. I was impressed with the way he made adjustments. There were a couple of times where he would fly open just a bit. One particular instance of this was in one of his later innings. After several innings where no batters reached base, Hard was forced to work from the stretch after allowing a baserunner. He didn't finish his delivery square to the plate and the pitch missed badly. You could see he wasn't happy with that pitch. He recognized the mistake and immediately got back into a groove, throwing three well-executed pitches in a row for a strikeout. The ability for a young, growing pitcher with a 6'5 frame to make those kinds of physical adjustments on the fly is not common. I was only able to sneak a peek at one radar gun reading during the game and it was a 93 MPH fastball. Hard has been up to 95 this spring and is typically in the 91-94 range. He also showed a great feel for two distinct breaking balls. The curveball looks like it has plus potential with some tough bite and two-plane depth. He finished the day with 14 strikeouts over 7 innings, walked 1 batter, and allowed only 3 hits. I also liked his demeanor. He was all business on the mound; cool, calm, and collected. Off the mound, he projected confidence and was constantly smiling. You can tell he loves being at the ball field.
Hard was in the 40 FV tier before I saw him in person as reports/clips kept showing steady growth. His performance for me solidified his spot in the 40 FV tier and inside the top 150 prospects in this draft. Hard is committed to Boston College which can be a tough one to break, making his signability a toss-up at this point. He fits in the 4-6 round area for me and is one of the top "projection arms" among the high school class.
Chayce McDermott is a similar type and caliber of prospect to Bryce McGowan. Because I moved up McGowan I decided I needed to also move up McDermott. Both are reliever-y righties that currently start for teams in a non-power conference. McDermott is older and will turn 23 this August which likely keeps him from getting the kind of bonus money that other Ball State arms have garnered in the recent past (Drey Jameson and Kyle Nicolas). But his fastball/slider combo is hard to ignore as both pitches project as plus. McDermott gets good extension and angle which allow his stuff to play up. He also shows a curveball and changeup but both will need development to project as average pitches. McDermott's ceiling is likely limited by his age, command, and high effort delivery but he could move quickly as a pro. I like McDermott in a similar range as McGowan but you might be able to get McDermott to sign for a bit less because of his age. He's a potential sneaky cost saving pick for the middle of day 2.
The first draft of my May board had Bryce McGowan, Chayce McDermott, and Christian McGowan ranked in a row. All I could think of was how perfect the name McGowan, McDermott, and McGowan would be for a Mad Men era marketing firm. I now have Bryce ahead of the other two with McDermott and McGowan slotting in at the 153 and 154 spots respectively. You can argue that Christian is the top juco arm in the country this year, though I personally have him at #5. He was a 35 FV for me last year and was expected to move on to Kansas State for the 2021 season. Instead, he decided to stay at Eastern Oklahoma and his stuff took off prior to the spring season. He showed upper 90s velocity in the Northwoods League during the summer with two very good secondaries in his slider and changeup. McGowan does a good job working downhill and throws from a high arm slot. His slider is a potential plus pitch and he gets good angle and tilt on the pitch. His changeup is at least an above average pitch when it's on. He can get good fading action on the pitch when he doesn't throw it too firmly. His delivery has effort and I'm uncertain if he'll be able to throw enough strikes to fill a starting role. Sound familiar? The McGowan/McDermott/McGowan trio lives! Right now I prefer Bryce McGowan and I think he commands the largest bonus of the three. Christian should be an attractive option in the similar 4-6 round area as the other two arms. He's committed to Texas Tech for the 2022 season. You can see a short clip of McGowan HERE.
Dylan Smith dropped off my radar after receiving inconsistent mound time in 2019 and 2020. He was an 18th round draft pick by the Padres in 2018 but didn't sign. He's done an excellent job filling one of Alabama's weekend rotation spots after receiving just 1 start prior to 2021. I'm a little late to the Smith breakout and because of that, I'm likely the low man on him right now. His athleticism, 4 pitch mix, and SEC performance might be enough to get him to the 40 FV tier. He's a wiry athlete that has taken some serious steps forward on the mound this year. I have him at #162 but I think he could go 50-80 spots higher than that. He checks a lot of boxes for a pro team and he's one of the better bets to stick as a starter after the first couple tiers of college righties.
Like Bryce McGowan, Mason Miller was one of my sleeper picks back in March. He had fall workout buzz after getting his fastball up to 97 several times. Miller has eclipsed that 97 mark this spring and has sat mid 90s and gets to 98 with regularity. He reportedly touched 99 this spring. The fastball is often straight but Miller throws it from a tough, over-the-top arm angle. I'm not sold on his secondary pitches. The slider has good movement and works well moving horizontally away from righties. But his command of the pitch is just OK. He also has a changeup that, like his slider, shows good movement but just OK command and feel. His delivery will need work if he wants to remain a starter, but at nearly 23 years old a team might throw him directly into the pen and let him air it out. Because of his age, I'm not inclined to put higher future value grades on his secondary pitches. I think he will ultimately be a fastball/slider reliever at the next level. If you were to put 60 grades on the fastball/slider and a 50 on the changeup I wouldn't argue with it.
Because he is a grad student with no eligibility remaining, Miller makes for an attractive underslot option towards the middle of day 2 (4-6 rounds). He doesn't have the ceiling of someone like 2020 2nd rounder Landon Knack, but he has a similar background as an older pop-up arm from a small school. It should be noted that Miller has type 1 diabetes. Fortunately, teams seem more confident handling and working with players with diabetes. Adam Duvall has had a successful pro career and Garrett Mitchell was selected 20th overall in last years' draft despite being type 1 diabetic.
Chase Allsup gets a bump this month as I really like the fastball/slider combo. Allsup is a good athlete with plus arm strength. He's starting to show more consistent velocity after maxing out at 94 during the summer. He's been up to 95 and has been in the 92-94 range more often this spring. The slider is a potential plus pitch with some good bite and consistently high spin rates. Doesn't have much of a changeup to date and the delivery has effort to it. Allsup definitely stands out from the other prep righties in the 35 FV tier which is why he gets moved to the 35+ tier. He's committed to Auburn and will likely be difficult to sign if teams rank him similarly to where I have him.
Kevin Kopps has battled Mississippi State's Landon Sims for the top closer in college baseball crown all year. The two SEC righties are very different pitchers. While Sims is a classic power reliever, Kopps thrives off the strength of his slider. The Kopps slider is one of the best pitches in this draft and is a firm 70 grade pitch for me. He can spot it wherever he wants and the spin he gets on it is extremely difficult to pick up. He throws the pitch more often than his fastball which is an average pitch at best. The fastball is of the sinking variety and sits in the low 90s, touching 94. He's shown a changeup in the past that was decent but he hasn't needed it much in 2021. The development and refinement of his slider is truly remarkable and it's going to get him drafted at some point this year. Kopps will be 24 on draft day and already has a TJ under his belt. He will be fast-tracked to the majors and it's not out of the question that a team pulls a Crochet/White Sox move and throws him right into the pro bullpen. He doesn't profile as a typical late inning reliever and his overall ceiling is likely limited to a Sergio Romo type career. I'd start looking his way around the 7th round and would try to cut an underslot deal.
Sandlin and Parks are two more high profile juco arms that have top 10 round potential. Both may be difficult to sign with Sandlin committed to Oklahoma and Parks committed to South Carolina. Sandlin shows a high level of projection with a fastball clocked as high as 98 MPH. He also has great feel for spin and shows two quality breaking balls. Parks is a great athlete with big-time arm speed. He was up to 97 MPH last year and he's shown more of the same in 2021. His secondaries aren't fully developed/optimized yet but his slider shows potential. I think Sandlin is the more likely player to be drafted as he feels a bit further along in his development and doesn't have an SEC commitment hanging over him like Parks does. Ian Smith has you covered with some Sandlin video.
Gordon Graceffo wasn't on my sleeper pitcher list but he was certainly on my watch list coming into the spring. His fall reports were very strong as he progressed physically (he put on about 20 pounds of muscle) and started hitting 95 with the fastball. Graceffo already showed advanced command so any gains to his overall stuff would make him a legit prospect. I knew I needed to keep an eye out for him if he started to perform. Graceffo isn't overpowering by any means but the fastball is a quality pitch that plays up because of his command. He throws two variations of the pitch with one showing four-seam action and the other looking more like a sinker or two-seamer. His changeup is a swing-and-miss offering with excellent fading action that always seems to dive just under the bats of opposing hitters. That pitch, like the fastball, plays up because of his ability to spot it consistently. He throws two distinct breaking balls and they looked about average when I saw him pitch against Uconn. Graceffo doesn't have an incredibly high ceiling but he's a late bloomer from the Northeast that has dominated the past two seasons. Sometimes those guys just keep getting better. Graceffo has pitched to a 1.51 ERA over the last two seasons with 107 innings pitched. He's been elite and I'd take a chance on him towards the end of day 2 (7-10) or in the early portion of day 3 (11-13).
The numbers have never really matched the raw tools for Nathan Burns. He's the type of pitcher I would have completely ignored two years ago. But with the way pitchers are developed today, I think Burns represents a decent flier towards the end of day 2. His pitch mix and plan of attack aren't optimized yet which is probably a big reason why he's hit a ceiling at the college level. Burns shows impressive spin rates, especially on the fastball, and throws from a good angle. I think he takes off in a pro organization as the potential is there for multiple above average or plus pitches.
Thomas Schultz doesn't do anything spectacular but he does a lot of things well. He shows the potential for four average pitches and above average command. He's a big dude at 6'6/215 who works downhill and shows a clean, repeatable delivery. He's been a solid starter for Vanderbilt in 2021 and is someone I expect to take a step forward as a pro. Some light similarities to former Vandy ace Mason Hickman.
Alec Willis is a popup arm this spring that's hit 97 with his fastball and has feel for a curveball and changeup. PerfectGame recently provided some clips of Willis in this twitter thread HERE. I'll need to see some more and/or get some added info on Willis before moving him up further, but he's very interesting. The Colorado righty is committed to the University of Minnesota.
John Rizzo and Micah Ottenbreit received a slight boost as I focused a bit more on them this past month. Rizzo is a great athlete with impressive arm speed and arm strength. He's been up to 95, shows 4 pitches, and might have a plus changeup. He's likely to end up at Texas A&M. Ottenbreit is ultra-projectable and has been up to 94, but that velocity doesn't always hold throughout starts. The secondaries aren't firm enough to grade as average, but they could be plus if thrown with more power. Ottenbreit will need a lot of time to develop both physically and as a pitcher but his upside is fairly high. I like targeting these types of arms after the 10th round. You can offer a guy like Ottenbreit $200,000-$400,000 without committing a high pick and without the risk of losing any bonus pool money if he doesn't sign. Thanks to Kyler Peterson for this Ottenbreit clip:
On the Dip
Glenn Albanese was rolling along through his first three starts of the season. But he's pitched just 1.2 innings since March due to injury and he hasn't pitched since April 10th. It can be hard getting injury info on players at this level and I've been unable to find any details on what the exact injury is and what the timetable looks like for his return. Unfortunately, injuries have followed Albanese throughout his college career. He came into 2021 looking like a potential 1-2 round pick but had under 20 career innings at Louisville. Albanese won't pitch in the ACC tournament (or College World Series) as he was recently shut down for the year. I honestly don't know what his draft stock is like at this point or where he'll go in July. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Both Specht and Cowan have gone down with injuries this season. Specht has just 12.1 innings pitched this year and has only taken the bump 3 times (2.1 innings) since March. He simply hasn't been the pitcher that we've seen in the past. Specht still has some time to turn things around but it's looking like a lost season for him at this point. He'd be a high follow for me in 2022. I actually caught most of Cowan's only start back in February against Liberty. He struggled to throw his offspeed for strikes and wasn't as crisp overall compared to previous viewings. Cowan ended up requiring TJ surgery shortly after that lone outing, ending what could have been a dominant year for Campbell's Friday night ace. Cowan will be 23 a few months after the draft and did enough in 2020 to get him some draft interest. Because of that, I'd imagine he is open to going pro this season. If the medical evaluations hold up it wouldn't surprise me if Cowan got snatched up late on day 2 (rounds 6-10).
You can check out Albanese and Specht in the videos below:
Comments