With the 2021 draft in the rearview mirror, I thought it might be useful to review some players that I labeled as "sleepers" going into the college season. I wrote some pieces earlier this year that went over my sleeper picks and my reasons for picking those players. I also had a number of players tabbed as sleepers in the draft database that I will include here. I plan on making sleeper picks for 2022 but I'll probably modify the process a bit. I definitely want to make it more clear what my expectations are for each player I choose. The term sleeper can mean different things to different people. Beyond that, there are clearly some players that I tabbed as sleepers that I wasn't expecting much from. Simply being drafted would have been considered a successful sleeper pick by me while others needed to do way more than that. Designating players as a "deep sleeper" or something like that may be useful in the future. I'll try and work out the kinks over the next several weeks.
I'm not one to shy away from my misses. The only way I will get better at evaluating players is by acknowledging any mistakes and learning from them. There were a lot of misses among my sleeper picks. There were a lot of picks I absolutely nailed as well. Players like Kyle Manzardo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Justice Thompson made me look pretty good. Jeff Heinrich, Tommy Sacco, and Christian Jones . . . not so much. This whole exercise is meant to give my followers/readers a sneak peek at some of the lesser-known draft prospects out there. It's informative and a good bit of fun, in my opinion. It's also an excellent way to remind myself that I can do better,
This post will focus on hitters from the 5 power conferences (ACC, BIG 10, BIG 12, PAC-12, SEC). I'll move on to the rest of the college bats in my next post before finishing up with pitchers. After reviewing my 2021 sleepers, we'll move on to the 2022 draft cycle. That means releasing the new and (hopefully) improved 2022 draft database and my top 50 rankings. I'll also have some posts that will go over dozens of players that I plan on keeping an eye (and ear) on this offseason. Let's get started!
Player names link to their baseball-reference page. Each player has draft status and stats included below. The 'THEN' section either includes an excerpt (italicized) from my sleeper post from earlier this year or my general thought process when I made the pick. The 'NOW' section goes over what happened during the season and the player's outlook moving forward. Finally, the 'VERDICT' section shows how I view each sleeper pick. Most players will either be considered a 'HIT' meaning the pick worked out or a 'MISS' which is essentially the opposite. A few players will be considered 'MIXED' or 'To Be Determined/TBD'. Mixed means the pick landed somewhere between a 'HIT' and 'MISS' while TBD means I think more time is needed before deciding if the pick was successful or not.
Alonzo Rubalcaba, Catcher, Kentucky
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .283/.382/.326, .708 OPS, .043 ISO; 55 PA, 0 HR, 2 XBH, 1 SB, 6 BB, 15 K
THEN: "Rubalcaba generates a lot of his value on the defensive side of the ball where he is very advanced and is an excellent catch and throw guy behind the plate. His offense will need to hold up against the quality arms he is likely to see as a hitter in the SEC."
NOW: The emergence of catcher Coltyn Kessler (now with the Marlins) relegated Rubalcaba to a backup role. The sample of playing time was small but I no longer have much confidence in Rubalcaba impacting the ball as a hitter. Kentucky has Devin Burkes and even Kirk Liebert as options at catcher for 2022. I think Rubalcaba will get more playing time next year but he's looking more like a defensive security blanket than an actual performer. Rubalcaba's defense is still attractive and we saw a bunch of defensive-minded catchers sign NDFA contracts following this years' draft. I think that's likely Rubalcaba's path forward unless something changes dramatically on the offensive side of the ball.
VERDICT: MISS
Ben Metzinger, Catcher/Third Base, Louisville
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .235/.350/.431; 60 PA, 3 HR, 4 XBH, 1 SB, 8 BB, 13 K
THEN: "Metzinger has performed well when given the chance. The problem for him is the lack of openings available on a star-studded Louisville team with Omaha aspirations. He shows impressive pure hitting skills and a versatile defensive profile."
NOW: It was another year spent mostly on the bench for Metzinger. Louisville is always going to have a stacked roster so playing time is likely to remain scarce. Metzinger has a career .835 OPS (127 PA) at Louisville and has spent time at both third base and catcher. I still like what I see with Metzinger and I'm holding out hope for an expanded role now that Henry Davis has moved on to the pros. I refuse to consider this a miss but it wasn't a hit either. I'll wait one more year and see what the future holds for Metzinger.
VERDICT: To Be Determined (TBD)
Kris Armstrong, First Base, Florida
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .289/.352/.535, .887 OPS, .246 ISO; 162 PA, 8 HR, 18 XBH, 0 SB, 15 BB, 44 K
THEN: "Has been consistently blocked by other high-profile players while at Florida. He forced the issue this fall by showcasing big raw power that started to play during games and scrimmages. Armstrong reportedly took giant leaps forward with his plate approach and discipline, allowing his 70 grade raw power to play in games. The first base job is his to lose and he could also get a little time in the outfield."
NOW: Armstrong played in about 60% of Florida's games with most of those coming at the DH position (he played 13 games at first). He didn't exactly have the first base job to himself and he also didn't get any time in the outfield. He performed fairly well, though his power tapered off the last month or so. His approach was improved but there is still a long way to go. His chase rates are still below average. Armstrong's propensity to chase pitches out of the zone led to a high K rate and a pedestrian amount of walks. He wasn't drafted this year but he still had a lot of eligibility remaining as a 3rd year sophomore. Armstrong played on the Cape this summer and finished with an impressive OPS of .955 in 102 plate appearances. There is no question that Armstrong has the power and in zone contact ability to profile as a pro first base prospect, but it's going to come down to how he grows as a hitter. The CCBL performance is a good start, we'll have to see how he looks this coming spring. Several of Florida's key 2021 contributors have moved on (Jacob Young, Nathan Hickey, Jordan Butler, etc.). Armstrong will be counted on to provide power in the middle of the Florida lineup and a veteran presence in 2022. He's still very much a draft prospect though he'll be right around 23 years old on draft day.
VERDICT: TBD
*GIF from PG College Baseball
Luc Lipcius, First Base, Tennessee
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .240/.357/.480; 269 PA, 15 HR, 24 XBH, 6 SB, 36 BB, 64 K
VERDICT: MISS
Ivan Melendez, First Base, Texas
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 16th round; did not sign
Team: Miami Marlins
'21 Stats: .319/.438/.603; 249 PA, 13 HR, 29 XBH, 1 SB, 34 BB, 65 K
THEN: Melendez was a well-regarded third base prospect from Odessa Community College prior to joining the Longhorns in 2021. He batted over .400 with 17 homers his freshman year and followed that up with a successful 2020 in the abbreviated season. Fall reports were encouraging and Melendez secured himself a starting role for 2021. He was expected to be an important cog in the middle of the Longhorns order.
NOW: Melendez had an excellent first year at Texas while filling in as the team's primary DH. He had some extreme hot stretches during the campaign including a streak of 6 straight games with a home run. There are some concerns regarding his plate discipline but the power is very real. Melendez surprisingly dropped to the 16th round and chose not to sign with the Marlins. Look for Melendez to greatly improve his draft stock with another power-filled college season in 2022.
VERDICT: HIT
Zach Zubia, First Base, Texas
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 20th Round
Team: Miami Marlins
'21 Stats: .286/.412/.502; 289 PA, 11 HR, 25 XBH, 2 SB, 49 BB, 67 K
THEN: Zubia had an up and down start to his Texas career but looked to be on the right track before the 2020 season was canceled. He improved his conditioning and looked looser and more poised at the plate. Zubia always showed power but his ability to make contact was an open question.
NOW: Zubia matched his career-high in long balls (11) that he set as a freshman and also set a career high in OPS with a .914 mark. His BB% was impressive at nearly 17% but it came with a K rate of 23%. Zubia was taken in the final round of the draft and is currently struggling in rookie ball. He's struck out in roughly 40% of his plate appearances so far. I'm far from confident that Zubia will hit as a pro as his ability to handle quality offspeed pitches is a major weakness. An older college first baseman that hits from the right side is a tough profile to make work. Because of that, I'm more mixed about this outcome. Zubia performed and was drafted but I'm not sure how long he's going to last in the pros
VERDICT: MIXED
Kyle Manzardo, First Base, Washington State
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 2nd round
Team: Tampa Bay Rays
'21 Stats: .365/.437/.640; 229 PA, 11 HR, 31 XBH, 1 SB, 25 BB, 29 K
THEN: "Manzardo was one of the best hitters at the D1 level in 2020's canceled season and his success carried over to the Northwoods League this summer. He shows advanced strike zone awareness and above-average to plus raw power. He has the chance to hit for average and power at the next level but I want to see him do it consistently against quality pitching before moving him up further . . . Manzardo has a shot to be one of the earlier first base selections this July."
NOW: Manzardo raked from start to finish and established himself as a premier college bat. He made good on my prediction and ended up being the first college first baseman to be selected in the 2021 draft. Manzardo hit for average, he hit for power, he got on base, and he limited the strikeouts. There's not much to nitpick here. Manzardo is a bit rough defensively at first base and may end up being a DH long term. The pressure on his bat is substantial but all indications suggest Manzardo has a real shot to make it work. This was one of the bigger 'HITS' for me among hitters.
VERDICT: HIT
*GIF from Joe Drake/Prospects Live
Ryan Ober, Second Base, Oregon State
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .279/.380/.468; 274 PA, 10 HR, 23 XBH, 1 SB, 36 BB, 63 K
THEN: "I love his approach at the plate and he really battles in each at-bat. There are pure hitting skills and barrel manipulation here and he's started to really fill out physically. I think there are some raw power gains on the horizon and the reports from the fall were very positive."
NOW: This is a bit of a unique situation. I'm happy that I was able to predict a significant power uptick for Ober in 2021. He showed limited pop prior to the 2021 season so it's not like we saw steady growth over time. This was a fairly significant burst of over the fence power for Ober. But the rest of Ober's offensive game didn't show up the way I thought it would. His K rate in 2021 was 23% when it really needed to be closer to 15%. His inability to hit for average or improve his K rate over his OSU career is a bit of a headscratcher. Ober wasn't an all-or-nothing type bat, he had an idea at the plate. Perhaps this is a case of a college player hitting the limits of his physical tools/athleticism. Ober was once again a dependable defensive option at second base but there are limited opportunities for mediocre bats that are limited to the keystone. I believe Ober has one more year of eligibility left at OSU but it looks like his baseball career is over. A quick glance at Ober's Linkedin shows that he is now working as a financial analyst. Even though Ober had a career year, I'm inclined to tag this as a 'MISS'
VERDICT: MISS
Jeff Heinrich, Second Base/Third Base, South Carolina
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .220/.250/.319; 100 PA, 1 HR, 7 XBH, 1 SB, 0 BB, 17 K
THEN: "Heinrich's physicality is a major plus as he's an extremely strong young man. With that strength comes plus raw power, but it hasn't played in games much. He's a little too stiff at the plate and his swing is geared for gap-to-gap power. He's just an OK athlete overall. Heinrich has missed a lot of time with a variety of injuries which has held back his development as a hitter."
NOW: Heinrich looks the part physically but the ability to hit at the D1 level continues to elude him. There's a lack of looseness at the plate that doesn't allow him to impact the ball on contact. Further, Heinrich didn't show much of an approach at the plate. Notice that he only stuck out in 17% of his plate appearances this year and his career rate is even better at 14%. Making contact has not been an issue, it's the quality of contact that hasn't shown up. Perhaps Heinrich's limited reps and numerous injuries have played a part, it's hard to say. Overall, Heinrich looked a bit too tightly wound for my tastes. His performance at the plate and in the field did not reach expectations and it's no surprise he was passed over in the draft. Heinrich is now at Kansas State and will look to rebound after a disappointing Gamecock career. He'll be over 23 years old on draft day and is a long shot to be drafted in 2022. Obvious 'MISS'
VERDICT: MISS
Tate Kolwyck, Second Base, Vanderbilt
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .290/.371/.507; 160 PA, 6 HR, 17 XBH, 2 SB, 16 BB, 35 K
VERDICT: TBD
Luke Mann, Third Base, Missouri
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .224/.321/.448; 157 PA, 8 HR, 13 XBH, 2 SB, 17 BB, 60 K
THEN: Mann's power bat/power arm was a classic fit at the hot corner for Missouri. He was a highly rated prep (he was a two-way player in high school) with swing and miss issues but enough physical traits to possibly make up for it. Mann would have a chance to put his name on the map with a strong SEC showing. He looked like a possible late bloomer with a high variance of potential outcomes.
NOW: Mann showed the power, but that's about it. His overall OPS of .769 wasn't horrendous but you simply can't strike out at the rate Mann did and expect to be drafted. Players with strikeout rates that are this excessive simply don't work out. Mann did finish the year on a high note as he raised his batting average above the Mendoza line (he was sitting at .193 on May 13th) and launched four homers in his final 7 games. Defensively, Mann was fine at third base but the pure arm strength he showed in the past either took a step back or didn't translate to game action. His defensive tools round out to be about average overall, so he won't be providing much value beyond what he can do at the plate.
Mann has no issue handling high end velocity and many of his homers came on fastballs in the mid-90s. Mann's ability to identify and make contact with breaking balls is his Achilles heel. I'm not confident that this will change moving forward. Mann had a better showing on the Cape this summer as he finished with a .269/.365/.454 line with 5 homers and 10 extra base hits in 126 plate appearances. Still, that came with a 30% K rate which was actually an improvement over his spring numbers. If Mann can repeat what he did on the Cape, he's likely to be drafted/signed at some point during or after the 2022 draft. I'm just not very hopeful that he will iron out the kinks in his game which is why I'm comfortable labeling this a 'MISS'.
VERDICT: MISS
*GIF from Mizzou Baseball
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Third Base, Oklahoma State
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 4th round
Team: Minnesota Twins
'21 Stats: .361/.442/.661; 267 PA, 15 HR, 25 XBH, 4 SB, 20 BB, 50 K
THEN: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (I'm going to refer to him as CES here) was one of the more anticipated junior college bats to make his way to the D1 ranks. He tantalized observers with his gaudy stat lines and in game power while at Yavapai. I think many were hesitant to fully jump on board the CES bandwagon because of the way Yavapai tends to inflate offensive numbers. Even though CES finished his Yavapai career (2019-2020) with an OPS north of 1.400, there was some justified skepticism. He backed up his juco numbers with quality performances over the summer and in the fall. CES was penciled in as Oklahoma State's starting third baseman and looked ready to prove that his power bat was for real.
NOW: I was fairly confident that CES would solidify himself as a power threat in the middle of the Cowboys lineup. I never expected him to rake at this level. This ended up being a case where I was higher on a player early and ended up being low on that player in the end. I question how his offensive game will adapt to the higher levels of the minors. He has a propensity for chasing pitches out of the zone which led to a large number of whiffs (18.7%). I think more advanced pitching will take advantage of this as he climbs through the minors. He does have above average bat-to-ball ability and his raw power is at least plus. There is a chance that CES slugs his way through the minors despite the flaws in his approach. He's also not much of a defender at third and I think he will spend a good chunk of time at first base in the pros. It goes without saying that the overall profile changes dramatically if CES is forced to become a right/right first base only hitter.
CES slotted in at #323 on my final draft board, lower than most other publications I saw. Even though I soured on him a tad as I saw watched him, his 2021 season was a huge success. CES mashed the moment he arrived on campus and he was rewarded with a 4th round selection by the Twins. I don't think many people, including myself, expected that kind of rise through the draft ranks. This was a really nice sleeper 'HIT' for me this year.
VERDICT: HIT
*GIF from OSU Cowboy Baseball
Zach Dezenzo, Shortstop, Ohio State
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .302/.382/.550; 191 PA, 9 HR, 22 XBH, 0 SB, 18 BB, 47 K
THEN: "Dezenzo's profile isn't one I typically gravitate towards. He's a physical 6'4/195 fringe shortstop with serious K issues. He had an encouraging freshman year (758 OPS, 10 homers) at Ohio State showing legit raw power and enough quick-twitch athleticism to stick somewhere on the left side of the infield. 2020 was a different story (.531 OPS, 0 homers, and a 30% K rate) and was basically a lost season. The reports out of the fall were very positive for Dezenzo and he started to show more in-game power and contact ability thanks to a swing change."
NOW: Dezenzo broke out offensively for the Buckeyes and established himself as one of the top shortstops in the Big Ten, He followed up his solid 2021 spring with a .339/.387/.732 batting line in the MLB Draft League. I was caught by surprise when Dezenzo ended up not being drafted. Dezenzo certainly looked the part physically and athletically with his game performance trending in the right direction. He's certainly not without some warts, but these types of players usually get snatched up on day 3 of the draft. Dezenzo has all fields power and showed a knack for going the opposite way on many of his homers. There's strength and bat speed which allows him to damage when he makes contact. His knowledge of the strike zone is a major weakness and that shows up in his walk (9.2%) and strikeout (25%) totals. His contact rates in the zone were much improved in 2021, but his aggression limits his overall value with the bat. Dezenzo is also unlikely to remain at shortstop long term. The range works fine at the college level but I don't think it will hold up in the pros. He's also likely to grow and slow down as he ages which makes his future at the position untenable. Dezenzo has the arm and actions to be a quality third baseman, perhaps even above average. I see a lot of similarities between Dezenzo and Chicago White Sox 19th round pick Shawn Goosenberg.
Dezenzo has another year of eligibility remaining so perhaps he decided to return to campus for 2022 rather than sign on as a day 3 pick. Another productive season with Ohio State would be tough to ignore and I have a hard time believing he'd get passed over once again. Dezenzo had a major rebound season in 2021 which is why I decided to include him as a sleeper. I think this can still be considered a 'HIT' despite his flaws and the fact that he wasn't drafted. He'll be someone to watch as the 2022 season unfolds and he could make for a decent budget saver in the 8-10 round range.
VERDICT: HIT
*video from MLB Draft League
Tommy Sacco, Shortstop, TCU
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .231/.343/.313; 251 PA, 1 HR, 14 XBH, 10 SB, 31 BB, 65 K
THEN: "Sacco is one of the premier defensive shortstops in college baseball. . . Sacco was a surprise offensive performer for TCU last year, putting up a .901 OPS in 71 plate appearances. He's a switch hitter but looks much better from the right side. It's not the prettiest swing or approach but Sacco is able to make consistent hard contact in games. I watched multiple TCU games last year and Sacco was a treat to watch. He's a grinder who plays the game hard and gets the most out of his physical tools."
NOW: Sacco's offensive production dropped off a cliff during his second go at TCU. The whiffs were out of control at ~25% and the extra base pop he showed previously was nowhere to be found. I think this was a clear example of opponents adjusting and Sacco being unable to counter. The defense remained strong and he's still a real shortstop at the next level but that doesn't mean much without some semblance of offensive production. This was one of my bigger misses this year as I was very attracted to Sacco's hard-nosed play and slick glovework. I didn't expect him to struggle anywhere near this much at the plate. Sacco will be back at TCU for 2022 and will have a final chance to make himself draft worthy. Unfortunately, he'll be 23 on draft day.
VERDICT: MISS
Peter Matt, Outfield, Duke
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 10th Round
Team: Chicago Cubs
'21 Stats: .297/.358/.566; 246 PA, 15 HR, 28 XBH, 15 SB, 23 BB, 70 K
THEN: Matt was a grad transfer from the Ivy League ranks. His career OPS at U Penn was near .850 and he flashed an intriguing strength/speed combo. Matt had the right field job all to himself for 2021 and looked to prove himself against ACC competition.
NOW: Matt exceeded expectations for Duke as he slugged 15 long balls to go with his 15 stolen bases. The power was impressive as Matt made a ton of hard contact in 2021. He showed strength and bat speed which allowed him to get the most out of his 55 raw power. He was one of the toolsier 'senior discount' picks in 2022 after being selected by the Cubs in the 10th round. Matt's approach is over-aggressive and he seems to struggle to identify spin. I'm not expecting much from Matt as a pro prospect. I don't see him making enough contact for his power and speed to show up in games. However, his big 2021 season in a power conference as a relatively unknown grad transfer feels like a successful sleeper pick to me. I'm going to consider this a 'HIT' despite the murky pro outlook.
VERDICT: HIT
Zach Kokoska, Outfield, Kansas State
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 10th round
Team: Colorado Rockies
'21 Stats: .363/.445/.675; 245 PA, 15 HR, 35 XBH, 9 SB, 27 BB, 45 K
VERDICT: HIT
Cameron Masterman, Outfield, Louisville
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .240/.373/.432; 153 PA, 6 HR, 22 XBH, 4 SB, 22 BB, 39 K
THEN: "He's been blocked by other talented players for most of his time at Louisville but seems to have locked up a starting gig for 2021. Masterman is a corner-only bat with plus raw power and could really mash this year for Louisville. His lack of track record holds me back from ranking or grading him higher, but that could change quickly. He's just an OK athlete and won't provide much defensive value as a pro, though he should be fine in left field or first base."
NOW: Masterman's start to 2021 couldn't have gone much better. He hit a homer in each of Louisville's first three games and carried a .330+ average into April. It was mostly downhill the rest of the way as Masterman failed to homer after April 3rd. His at-bats were inconsistent against higher caliber pitching and the overall approach deteriorated. Masterman relies mostly on his physicality and strength to get to his power as his bat speed is just OK. I'm pretty sure that we'll see Masterman at Louisville again in 2022 but he may not command a starting role. The struggles in conference play have me out on Masterman which makes this sleeper pick a clear 'MISS'.
VERDICT: MISS
*video from The New England League
Justice Thompson, North Carolina
Drafted/Signed: Yes; 6th round
Team: Cincinnati Reds
'21 Stats: .304/.386/.444; 241 PA, 7 HR, 15 XBH, 15 SB, 25 BB, 67 K
THEN: "Thompson has a lean, physical build with plenty of projection remaining at 6'4/205. Thompson shows raw power at the plate and plenty of speed on the bases and in center. He's locked down the centerfield job and is going to hit in the middle of the order for UNC after an excellent fall showing. If Thompson continues to develop and make good on his raw tools he has top 3-5 round potential. He's another guy that I want to see a little more before ranking higher but the potential is there for 55 raw power, plus speed, and at least average defense in centerfield."
NOW: The first month or so of Thompson's UNC career was so impressive that he started getting some 1-2 round hype. Obviously, this was a major pat on the back moment for me as I was fairly high on Thompson coming into the spring. Thompson slowed down significantly as the season went on and his performance during ACC tournament play was mixed. But at the end of the day, Thompson showed that he had the physical tools you look for in a college centerfield prospect. His first crack at the D1 level was largely successful as he finished with a .830 OPS for UNC. Thompson's draft stock drifted more towards the 3-5 round area (which is where his tools seemed to fit prior to his 2021 season) as draft day approached. I thought the Reds got pretty solid value when they took Thompson in the middle third of the 6th round.
There are some holes in Thompson's swing that will need to be worked on in the pros. I have concerns that his size/long arms are going to make it hard for him to cover the plate consistently. I think it's also fair to question how long he'll remain in center given his big body (6'4/205). I wonder how I'd feel about Thompson if his 2021 season was reversed. Would I feel more encouraged by his performance if he struggled out of the gate and then turned it around? My gut feeling says yes and right now I'm mostly lukewarm about his pro future. Either way, this is a 'HIT' as Thompson turned in a solid 2021 campaign and ended up being selected inside the top 200 picks of this years' draft.
VERDICT: HIT
Jake Thompson, Outfield/First Base, Oklahoma State
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats:.342/.502/.479; 201 PA, 4 HR, 12 XBH, 2 SB, 38 BB, 19 K
THEN: All arrows were pointing up for Thompson. Thompson hit during his first year at OSU in 2020, he hit in the Northwoods League, and he hit during fall workouts (Thompson was named MVP during OSU's fall workouts). He didn't hit for much power previously but reports from D1Baseball.com sounded encouraging on that front. Thompson proved that he could work consistent/quality ABs and make solid contact. Thompson had experience at third base but was just an OK defender there.
NOW: Thompson had a big 2021 season and continued to pound the baseball for the Cowboys. He was second on the team in OPS with a .982 mark and walked twice as much as he struck out. His OBP eclipsed .502, an absolutely stellar mark that was well earned through quality plate appearances. The only thing missing was the power as Thompson hit just 4 homers and his isolated power (ISO) was under .140. He played first base and left field and looked decent enough in left to avoid the first base only tag. I was surprised when Thompson was passed over in the 2021 draft as he certainly showed enough offensive prowess in a power conference to warrant a selection.
Thompson played on the cape this summer and more than held his own (.278/.409/.481, 133 PA). He once again showed a quality approach and contact ability as he walked nearly as often as he struck out (21 BB/23 K). While he didn't hit for a ton of over the fence power on the cape (3 homers) he did finish with a .203 ISO (up 60 points from the spring) and 47% of his hits went for extra bases. If he's able to play a quality third base moving forward it would greatly improve his draft future. Thompson turns 24 in March which is a limiting factor for his draft stock. Without major power and a possible corner outfield/first base future, it's hard to see Thompson getting interest in the early rounds of the 2022 draft. His best bet is probably as a 'senior discount' pick on day 2. We saw Dallas Baptist's Jackson Glenn slug his way to an underslot 5th round selection despite his older age. I would not be surprised if Thompson follows in Glenn's footsteps. The spring/summer performances make this a 'HIT' for me despite Thompson going undrafted. He's someone to watch again in 2022.
VERDICT: HIT
Christian Jones, Outfield, Washington
Drafted/Signed: No
'21 Stats: .257/.326/.388; 175 PA, 1 HR, 17 XBH, 3 SB, 14 BB, 62 K
THEN: "Jones was a high-profile recruit and 31st round pick by the Red Sox in 2016. He was expected to be an instant performer for Washington and a potential middle of the lineup bat. That never materialized. Between inconsistency and a myriad of injuries, Jones just hasn't done much during his college career. He's back to full health as he enters his 5th-year senior season, and will look to make good on his past promise. He's a strong, physical hitter with possibly plus raw power and serious approach and strikeout concerns."
NOW: This one was a long shot. Jones needed to perform and stay healthy to recoup his prospect status. Unfortunately, he only did one of those things as he stayed on the field the whole way through the season but didn't hit. At 23 years old and no game performance to speak of (under .700 career OPS) I think it's safe to move on from the Christian Jones experience.
VERDICT: MISS
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